China Rewrites Rules To Building Wealth
As in everything else economic, China is a potential auto-business powerhouse -- both as consumer and manufacturer. Output of Chinese auto plants is rising 25% a year. Global auto makers have invested more than $4 billion in Chinese factories over the past five years.
That is sparking fears -- not only in the U.S., but also in Canada, Japan and Western Europe -- that low-cost Chinese labor will wipe out auto-manufacturing jobs elsewhere.
But when McKinsey Global Institute, the think-tank arm of the consulting firm, took a look at the plants that big auto makers have opened in China, they found something surprising: The factories aren't designed to take advantage of what seems to be China's big advantage -- a large pool of low-wage workers. Instead, robots weld, cars glide automatically along the assembly line and parts move by overhead conveyer. The plants are nearly as capital-intensive as U.S. auto plants.
"If you took down the signs, and pulled out the employees, you couldn't tell you were anywhere but Sindelfingen [Germany, where DaimlerChrysler AG has a big plant] or Georgetown, Ky. [where Toyota Motor Corp. does]," says Glenn Mercer, the consulting firm's auto maven. That doesn't apply to every plant, of course; some foreign auto makers in Shanghai rely on hand-me-down machines.
The contrast with India is sharp. More of its auto plants use lots of workers and fewer machines, just as one would expect in a nation with platoons of low-wage employees.
The evolution of the global economy is neither as predictable nor as simple as one might think. Three-quarters of all cars and light trucks are made in the U.S., Canada, Japan, South Korea and Western Europe. But developing countries are coming on strong, particularly Mexico (1.8 million cars a year, of which 74% are exported), Brazil (1.7 million, of which 24% are exported), China (1.1 million, of which less than 1% are exported) and India (600,000, of which 9% are exported.)
Joint ventures between foreign auto makers and Chinese firms have invested about $4,500 for every car they make, not much different than in the U.S., McKinsey calculates. Some of this is easily explained: It costs more to use the same machine in China because of the costs of shipping, sending expatriates to install it and arranging back-up electrical power.
But there is more to it. The Chinese government, eager to lure foreign auto makers and their latest technology, has kept auto-production capacity from increasing as rapidly as consumer demand for cars, McKinsey says. So far, that has meant big profits for global auto makers in China. Goldman Sachs analysts figure that 70% of Volkswagen AG's profits last year came from China. Until very recently, car makers in China faced little of the price competition that pushes business to increase efficiency and cut costs.
The implicit deal: "The government says bring in your best technology, and we'll make sure you get profits," Mr. Mercer says. The losers are Chinese consumers, who pay higher car prices, and unemployed Chinese workers, who might otherwise get desirable factory jobs.
India is different. Though shielded more from foreign competition than Chinese car makers, Indian auto companies tend to compete on price. That means making cars as inexpensively as possible, which means relying more on workers and less on machines.
Auto makers say they are driven by more than cutting the cost of production. China is a more appealing market for foreign brands than India, says Mustafa Moharatem, General Motors Corp.'s top economist. "But because of the way information travels these days," he says, "people in developing countries aren't any longer willing to buy cars that are one or two generations old. And if you're going to do the current-generation car, then keeping the process as similar as processes around the world makes sense."
As much as anything, automation yields consistent quality -- and that is probably a key to the affection of the Chinese government and foreign auto makers for capital-intensive auto plants. They are looking ahead to China becoming a big exporter of cars. That requires cars that meet the discerning standards of consumers world-wide. "You don't want people asking if this Audi was built in China or Italy," Mr. Mercer says.
The rise of China is one of the biggest economic events of our time. Its success does rest in part on its army of low-wage workers, but despite the popular perception, that isn't the whole story. China is writing a new chapter in the "How to Make Your Country Richer" handbook.
中国重写致富规则
正如在其他经济领域中一样，中国无论是作为费者还是生产者，都将在世界汽车制造业发挥重量级作用。中国国产汽车产量正以每年25%的速度递增。此外，在过去5年里，海外汽车制造商对中国的投资已超过了40亿美元。
这引起了一些国家的担 ，不仅仅是美国，就连加拿大、日本和西欧也在担心。他们害怕廉价的中国劳力会夺去汽车制造业在其他地方的工作机会。
但是，麦肯锡咨询公司(Mckinsey Co.)旗下的智囊团麦肯锡全球中心(Mckinsey Global Institute)对跨国汽车制造商在中国设立的工厂进行了调查，结果令人吃惊：这些工厂并没有利用中国所谓的优势──大量低廉的劳动力。相反，在汽车厂里，机器人进行著焊接，车型缓缓地在装配线上流转，架空输送机则进行著零件装配。这些工厂几乎与美国那些资本密集型的工厂没什么两样。
"如果你没有车间里的标语和员工，你还以为那是在辛德芬根（戴姆勒克莱斯勒(DaimlerChrysler AG)在此设有一个大型工厂），或是肯塔基州乔治敦（丰田汽车(Toyota Motor Corp.)汽车厂所在地），"麦肯锡的汽车业专家格林?默西(Glenn Mercer)说。当然，并非在中国的每个车厂都是这样，例如在上海的一些国外汽车制造商就很依赖手工机器。
而在印度就与此形成鲜明对比。当地的大多数汽车工厂里有大量工人，机器很少，很符合人们对一个充斥著大量廉价劳动力的国家的印象。
全球经济的发展并不是完全在人们的预料之中，它不像人们想得那么简单。目前，全球四分之三的汽车和轻型卡车产自美国、加拿大、日本、韩国和西欧。但是，发展中国家正在迎头赶上，特别是墨西哥（该国年产汽车180万辆，其中74%用于出口）、巴西（汽车年产量为170万辆，其中24%用于出口）、中国（汽车年产量为110万辆，不到1%被出口）和印度（汽车年产量为60万辆，9%被出口）。
根据麦肯锡的调查，在中国，中外合资的汽车公司对生产的每辆汽车大约投资了4,500美元，与美国的差距不大。这不难解释：考虑到设备海运和派出外籍专家进行安装，并安排备用电力设施的成本，在中国使用某些设备的支出更高。
不过，还有更深的原因。麦肯锡指出，中国政府非常希望外国汽车生产商带著最新技术来华投资，因此人为地让汽车产量的增幅低于消费需求的增幅。这意味著全球汽车生产商至今仍能在中国获得高额利润。高盛集团(Goldman Sachs)的分析师指出，大众汽车公司(Volkswagen AG)去年70%的利润来自中国。不久前，中国的汽车制造商几乎根本没碰到价格上的竞争，更谈不上提高效率，降低成本了。
这种交易很明显："政府要企业提供最好的技术，同时保证后者有利可图，"默西说。而倒霉的是国内的消费者，他们得支付高价买车，还有就是失业的工人，他们原本可以得到想要的工作。
印度则不然。虽然当地的汽车生产商面临的海外竞争小于中国的同行，价格上的竞争还是免不了的。这导致汽车的生产成本尽可能地低，而低成本意味著要倚重工人，而非机器。
汽车制造商表示，他们重视的不仅仅是降低生产成本。对于海外品牌而言，中国市场比印度更具吸引力，通用汽车公司(General Motors Corp.)的首席经济学家穆塔法?莫哈拉特(Mustafa Moharatem)说。"由于信息在当今时代传播很迅速，发展中国家中的人们不再愿意购买款式过时的汽车。如果你打算生产最新款车型，那么让生产过程与全球其他地方同步就很有意义了，"他说。
自动化会保证生产质量稳定，而这也许是中国政府和海外汽车制造商对资本密集型工厂情有独钟的原因。他们期望中国成为汽车出口大国，而这就要求所产的汽车能满足挑剔的全球各地消费者的要求。默西说："你自然不希望人们询问这辆奥迪(Audi)是产自中国还是意大利。"
中国的崛起是当今时代经济领域最重要的事件。大量的廉价劳动力对此功不可没，但这不是全部原因。中国正在谱写致富路上的新篇章。
