No Walls Divide China From the EU
For China, this could well be the Year of Europe.
Little noticed above the clamor over China's economic boom and the size of the U.S. trade deficit with China is an economic forecast with huge repercussions for business: In 2005, the European Union is likely to become China's No. 1 trading partner, displacing the U.S. this year and Japan in 2005, according to the EU Commission in Beijing.
With China's economy growing at 9.1% in 2003, China's affair with Europe is blossoming for pragmatic business reasons that contrast with the shadows cast by China's historic rivalry with Japan and America's role as Taiwan's protector against Beijing.
"I think we have a good relationship, which benefits both sides and is growing exponentially," says EU External Relations Commissioner Chris Patten. Mr. Patten, who incurred Beijing's ire as Britain's last governor of Hong Kong, where he sought to promote democracy in the years before the former colony's return to Chinese rule in 1997, added: "There are still problems like human rights and illegal immigration, which we need to tackle more vigorously, but overall I think the relationship is in better shape than it's been for years. We matter as much to China as China matters to us."
EU policy makers say they sense an unprecedented Chinese interest in Europe, chiefly driven by China's hunger for export markets, which are seen as key to sustaining economic growth at home. Officials add that it is also partly the result of Beijing's quest for new allies to bolster its view of the need for a multipolar world, rather than one dominated by the U.S.
In addition, China is increasingly looking to collaborate with Europe in science, technology and education -- areas where Europe appears less reluctant to share sensitive technologies with China than the U.S., especially following the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. "China has understood the message that it's best not to put all your eggs in one U.S. market, for political reasons and to ensure diversity," says Leon Brittan, a vice president at investment bank UBS, who, as EU trade commissioner in the 1990s, played a key role in forging the bloc's engagement with China. "You're better off if you have a choice."
According to EU figures, total Europe-China trade in 2002 stood at �115 billion ($144.14 billion), making China the EU's second-largest trading partner after the U.S. But while the EU trade deficit with China topped �47 billion in 2002, few in Europe voice real worries. This contrasts with the furor in the U.S. over its trade deficit with China of $125 billion (�99.73 billion) in 2003. EU officials argue that the EU's deficit with China is compensated by its surplus elsewhere. Others say that the EU, overall, takes a longer-term approach to trade with China, believing that pressure for economic reforms and demands from China's emerging middle class will eventually increase the country's appetite for foreign goods.
Less to Complain About
With a trade deficit with China that is half that of the U.S., the Europeans also have less to complain about. EU and U.S. investment in China was about $4 billion each last year, but the Europeans dominate some fast-growing areas of China's economy. For example, three big pillars of China's petrochemicals industry -- each multibillion-dollar ethylene projects -- are scheduled to come on stream in the next year or two. All three are being built by European companies -- Germany's BASF AG, Britain's BP PLC and Royal Dutch Petroleum Co.
China's huge urbanization and infrastructure program also plays to the strengths of Europe's heavyweights. Companies such as Germany's Siemens AG and Swedish-Swiss ABB Ltd. provide turbines and other power and rail equipment, while Veolia Environment SA of France and Thames Water of Britain build municipal water plants.
"As China becomes the manufacturing center of the world, it needs machinery," says Joerg Wuttke, chairman of the 800-member German Chamber of Commerce in China. With car production soaring by 80% in 2003 over 2002 -- making it perhaps the hottest part of the Chinese economy -- European brands led by Volkswagen AG sold some 40% of new cars in China in 2003, compared with 10% from U.S. makers. A new surge in investment is expected as European companies take advantage of the euro's strength.
In late January, President Jacques Chirac declared 2004 the "Year of China" in France, had the Eiffel Tower lit up in red lights and condemned Taiwan's plans for a referendum in March relating to China-Taiwan relations. It was all part of an enthusiastic welcome for President Hu Jintao on a visit that stressed business ties.
Many more Chinese will be following in his footsteps to Europe after the signing in Beijing on Feb. 12 of an agreement -- known as "approved destination status," or ADS -- that will allow Chinese tour groups easier access to most EU member states. "We're getting ready for a major invasion," says an EU official.
In contrast, the U.S. has no plans to introduce an ADS-style agreement that would allow it to cash in on Chinese tourism. The tightening of U.S. borders on security grounds is actually leading to a fall in the number of Chinese visitors and is having a real impact on business. "If Washington continues to make it this difficult for businessmen and students to get visas, over time it will have a dramatic negative impact on U.S.-China relations, to the benefit of the EU and other competitors," says Andy Rothman, China analyst for CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets, a Hong Kong-based brokerage concern and investment bank. "The U.S. either pays now, with increased government funding for quick and efficient security checks, or it pays much more later, when it loses business in China."
Mr. Rothman complains that senior Chinese managers of listed companies find it hard to reach the U.S. to meet potential investors. Harley Seyedin, chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce in Guangzhou, also cites the difficulties Chinese executives have in getting U.S. visas. In contrast, he notes, most EU embassies have a fast-track business-visa service that takes one to three days for Chinese.
Take Ireland, where less than a decade ago there were few Chinese. Today some 40,000 live there, most on student visas. That's part of the Irish strategy of accelerating its ties with China. "We're interested in long-term links for future business," says Michael Garvey, the Asia-Middle East director in Shanghai for Enterprise Ireland, the Irish trade-development agency. "We're never going to teach the Irish to speak Chinese, but if we bring Chinese students to Ireland, they will make friends and connections, and that's how we will build business relationships."
Opting for Caution
To be sure, the EU and the U.S. still have plenty in common to complain about when it comes to China. Beijing's halting implementation of its World Trade Organization commitments to open its markets wider to foreign investors, Beijing's political and religious controls in Tibet, China's lack of democracy and poor human-rights record draw criticism in Europe and the U.S. Plenty of EU manufacturers, like their U.S. counterparts, fret about the undervalued renminbi making Chinese exports cheaper and Western goods more expensive in China. Euratex, the confederation of the EU textile industry, has increased its pressure for the EU to clamp down on cheap Chinese textiles.
But EU Trade Commissioner Pascal Lamy's team has opted for caution. "Every antidumping complaint is treated with an open mind," says Mr. Lamy's spokeswoman, Arancha Gonzalez. Industry officials, however, say the European Commission, unwilling to stir up trade trouble with Beijing, is especially indulgent. After all, says an EU trade specialist, China's growth could be an instrument for Europe's development.
European-Chinese collaboration also extends into areas where China has been cut out by the U.S. for security reasons. In October of last year, China pledged �200 million to help develop the EU's $3.25 billion Galileo satellite navigation system, a potential rival to the U.S. Global Positioning System, which was developed for the U.S. military. Naturally, Beijing wants a satellite navigation system under its own control for its armed forces, not under U.S. control, and would hope to gain the technology to build it from Galileo.
China backs France over Japan as the site for the world's first large-scale nuclear fusion plant -- a $12 billion project known as the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor. A global consortium should decide in March.
Piet Steel, chairman of the Asia-Pacific working group at the Union of Industrial and Employers' Confederations of Europe, a lobby group of Europe's top firms, says that competitive pressures and the stronger euro are prompting a range of European companies to seek new investment sites in China. "China is definitely a must for most European companies," he says.
And what does Mr. Patten see China getting from Europe? "In geo-strategic terms, what is happening in Europe is of great importance to China," he says. "This includes our enlargement and the euro. There are economic interests and also an overall Chinese view of a multipolar world into which Europe fits rather well."
There's more about the EU that attracts China. For instance, Europe, for all its security ambitions, does not see itself as competing with China. As a nonmilitary power, the EU is not focused on China as a potential superpower rival. Instead, in the words of the European Commission paper on China last October, Europe views the country as a "strategic partner" with which to forge a "beneficial relationship of equals."
The EU, like the U.S., wants China to evolve into a more open society. But without Taiwan and military rivalry, the Europeans have fewer direct clashes. "The EU takes the view that it makes more sense to engage with China," says UBS's Mr. Brittan. "It is too big to coerce."
中国游客将大量涌入欧洲
一亿人－－这是世界旅游组织(World Tourism Organisation)估算的到2020年时中国每年出境游可能达到的人数。这就难怪欧盟(European Union)2月12日在北京与中国政府签署协议，欲在这一庞大的市场分得一杯羹。中国赋予欧盟12国"旅游目的地国"地位，为旅游团赴欧旅游打开了方便之门。中国政府还承诺，将同意接收任何利用这一便捷渠道非法滞留欧盟的中国旅游者。
此项交易意味著欧洲向中国旅游业开放，并将大大增加年收入约5,000亿美元的全球旅游业的规模。去年，赴欧旅游的外国游客在7亿人左右。中国旅游团的到来也将为一直在抵御恐怖主义威胁和美元兑欧元疲软影响的欧洲旅游业带来福音。但是，欧盟和中国旅游当局都没有说明这块市场蛋糕究竟有多大。
也许澳大利亚可以给探寻市场规模提供一些线索。该国在1999年被批准为中国旅游目的地。澳洲旅游局(Australian Tourist Commission)的中国区经理May Tang称，此后，游客人数的年均增长幅度达到20%-25%，只有去年非典型肺炎(SARS)疫情爆发期间是个例外。
预计在今后几个月内，中国将与丹麦、英国和爱尔兰分别签署双边协议。另外，将于5月1日加入欧盟的另外10个国家届时也将自动成为签约方，享有中国旅游目的地地位。
中国出境旅游的人数在上世纪90年代增长了三倍，而且随著该国中产阶层的扩大，这一趋势有望在今后20年持续下去。中国政府还在公民办理护照和携带出境外汇金额方面放宽了限制，使得人们出境旅游变得更加便捷。而且中国也在酝酿推出弹性休假制度，取消整个国家集中休假的惯例。这将会降低其全国性假期期间遭遇的各种瓶颈压力，分散一年中游客对飞往欧洲航班的座位需求。
这对于扩大后的欧盟来说真是一个好消息。在协议签署之前，欧洲只有少数几个国家向中国公民发放个人旅游签证。其中，德国和法国尤其受到中国游客的欢迎，中国国家旅游局(China National Tourism Administration)市场研究部门的王守涛（音译）称，2002年德国和法国分别吸引了16万和13万中国游客。也许这个数目不算大，可已经足以令欧盟旅游业界人士的眼睛为之一亮。
一个理由在于分析师预计这些数字将会迅速增长。世界旅游组织预测，1995-2020年间中国出境游人数平均每年增长12.8%，为它对世界其他地区预期的三倍。该组织称，到2020年，中国将成为全球第四大客源输出国。
而且，据报导中国游客的消费能力十分强劲。世界旅游组织称，其人均近1,200美元的花费几乎相当于访欧国际游客平均消费水平的两倍。随著中国游客的大量涌入，这一数字也许会有所下降，但是他们可能和其他东亚旅游者一样，喜欢花大价钱购买欧洲的名牌产品。
Tang说，中国人是消费最多的游客群体之一，他们乐于在旅游时为亲朋好友选购礼物。
