Asia's New Boom: Will It Bust?
Mark Headley IS worried about money. Too much of it.
Cash invested in the seven Asia-focused mutual funds managed by his company for U.S. investors bulged to $2.3 billion by the middle of January from $37 million at the start of 2003. For one China fund alone, "we're bringing in $10 million a day now," he says. "It's scary."
Asia is once again the darling of foreign investors. With a U.S. recovery now picking up pace, Asian companies are gearing up for profits and attracting capital from around the world -- so much that economists are worried that bubbles could be forming in some markets.
The wave of cash reminds veteran investors such as Mr. Headley, San Francisco-based president and portfolio manager for Matthews International Capital Management LLC, of the previous time Asia was hot. Foreign investors dumped billions into stock markets in Jakarta, Bangkok and Seoul in the mid-1990s only to see the region implode during the financial crisis of 1997-'98.
Now Mr. Headley is back in Asia, making a five-day, two-country swing during which he will call on 15 companies in a bid to find a few he is comfortable giving some of his investors' money. He is also looking for reasons why the current investment boom won't end in another crash. "We have to have a belief that this time will be different," Mr. Headley says. "But you have to worry when you see that wall of foreign money coming back in."
At 8:30 a.m. on a picture-perfect day in Tokyo, Mr. Headley takes a last-minute look through financial reports in the back of a taxi as he heads to his first company visit. Arriving at the glass-tower headquarters of Kuroda Electric Co., he hustles inside with a translator and a research analyst from his company.
After extended greetings and an exchange of business cards, Mr. Headley sits down with Osamu Takahashi, the group manager. A snow-capped vista of Mt. Fuji rises above the Tokyo sprawl outside the window of the boardroom. As Mr. Takahashi discusses his company's strategy, he passes around a tiny piece of metal made to house a one-inch hard-drive, one of the many components his company makes that fit into computers, cellphones and television sets.
Mr. Takahashi's approach is open and eager, an attitude that Mr. Headley says would have been rare in Japan even three years ago. The country's prolonged slump has knocked the complacency out of Japan Inc., and companies are now scrambling to recover lost ground. It is one reason, Mr. Headley says, to be bullish on Asia. "If Japan gets back on its feet, that really makes a big difference to the rest of the region," he says.
One of the biggest factors forcing change in Japan is the rise of China, whose massive and low-cost manufacturing operations have compelled companies across the region to re-evaluate their strategies. Kuroda wants to expand in China but its existing operations need resources as well: 500 million yen ($4.6 million) for a hard-drive components factory in Thailand; a similar amount for its liquid-crystal-display components factories in Taiwan and Korea; and at least 200 million yen per year for its Japanese plants that manufacture parts for backlight displays on things such as cellphones.
"We need to hurry to expand our business network in China," Mr. Takahashi explains through the interpreter. "If we can establish good logistics in China, we can expand our business dramatically."
That kind of attitude toward China is a crucial turnaround for Japanese business, Mr. Headley says. China, he says, has done Japan "an enormous favor" by scaring it into action. Waiting outside Kuroda's office for a taxi to take him to his next meeting, Mr. Headley reflects on the "sea change" he has seen in Japan's relationship with China over the past few years: "Companies like this one know that they have to build logistics in China or die."
Twelve hours later, Mr. Headley lands in Seoul on a chilly winter night. As the hotel car winds its way downtown, traffic is sparse and pedestrians are few. South Korea, Mr. Headley says, feels "stone-cold sober" right now. That is partly the result of a government-engineered consumer-credit boom that turned into a spectacular bust late last year, saddling many ordinary Koreans with huge credit-card bills and household debt.
A dinner the next night with analysts and sales staff from the local brokerage house that Mr. Headley's company uses doesn't help to defray the gloom. Mr. Headley and two of his colleagues tuck into Korean delicacies in the private room of a back-street restaurant as their hosts dish out more pessimism on the country's battered economy.
The bad news about South Korea is good news to Mr. Headley. Japan and South Korea make for good investment opportunities now because they are "a long, long way from the enthusiasm one sees in China and India at the moment," he says later. Stocks on South Korea's KOSPI 200 index trade at about 13 times historical earnings. That's a less-expensive alternative to stocks in some of the hotter markets. The index for Hong Kong-listed stocks of Chinese companies, for example, trades at an average of 21 times historical earnings.
With prices that low, and the excitement focused elsewhere, Mr. Headley has been adding South Korean stocks to his Matthews Pacific Tiger Fund and increasing his existing Korean holdings.
While foreigners such as Mr. Headley have been buying -- they helped push the benchmark stock index up 30% during 2003 -- Koreans have mostly stayed away. That's all right with Mr. Headley. "The fear is still there among locals that something will go wrong. That's healthy," he says. With luck, that fear will act as a brake on companies' urge to overspend, he says.
The issue pops up when Mr. Headley and a colleague visit an Internet-related company whose stock has risen 151% since they bought it two years ago. But Mr. Headley leaves the company worried that its "glitzy" new offices are a sign of "intoxication" among management.
Still, Mr. Headley says he is confident that the money pouring in now is being used more cautiously this time. Prior to the crisis, "misallocation of capital was endemic," he says. Now, he adds, "badly managed companies get beaten down and well-managed companies have access to capital."
Mr. Headley says he finds Asian companies a lot more approachable these days, in part because they need to keep foreign capital flowing. The taps were opened up last year, when the net value of global investor purchases of mutual funds focused on Asia excluding Japan hit $7.3 billion, more than double the 1996 record. Flows into Japanese stock funds boosted the amount invested by 45% from the start of 2003, according to EmergingPortfolio.Com Fund Research.
But there is still a way to go before even the precrisis investment levels in Asia are reached. In February 1997, Japan made up 14.5% of the MSCI All-Country World Free Index, the benchmark for global fund managers based on the size of local markets. Asia outside Japan accounted for 8.4%. By December 2003, Japan accounted for just 8.6% of the index; the rest of Asia was 5.6%.
As he prepares for the flight back to San Francisco from Seoul, Mr. Headley is optimistic that the boom this time won't end in the familiar disaster.
Speculative frenzies are "human nature," Mr. Headley says. But with memories still fresh of the most recent bust, "things are pretty well founded this time around," he adds.
亚洲新繁荣 泡沫又重来？
马克?海德利(Mark Headley IS)为钱的问题感到烦忧－－钱太多了。
海德利的公司为美国投资者管理著7个以亚洲投资为主的共同基金，截至今年1月中旬，流入这7个共同基金的现金高达23亿美元，而在2003年初时流入的现金还只有3,700万美元。他说，单一只中国基金，"每天就流入1,000万美元的现金。这令人感到心慌。"
亚洲再次成为外国投资者的宠儿。随著美国经济复苏步伐加快，亚洲公司看到了盈利前景，这吸引了来自世界各地的资金－－数量如此之多，以致于经济学家担忧一些市场可能正在形成泡沫。
这股现金流入热潮让海德利这样的投资老手想起了上一次亚洲炙手可热的情形。海德利是总部位于旧金山的Matthews International Capital Management LLC的总裁兼投资组合经理。上个世纪90年代中期，外国投资者将数十亿美元投入雅加达、曼谷和汉城的股市，不料却目睹亚洲地区经济在97-98年金融危机中崩溃。
现在海德利重新回到亚洲，展开为期5天的两国之行。在此期间，他将访问15个公司，在这些公司中为部分投资资金寻找稳妥的投资目标。他还将探寻为什么此次投资热潮不会再次导致经济崩溃的原因。他说，"我们不得不相信，这一次将不一样。但是当外国资金象潮水般涌入时，你不得不担心。"
早上8点30分，日本东京天气晴朗。海德利乘坐一辆计程车开始对第一家公司的访问，他抓紧最后的时间审核著这家公司的财务报表。海德利将造访的Kuroda Electric Co.位于一栋玻璃幕墙大楼里面，他与随行的一名翻译和一名来自公司的研究分析师下车后快步走进大楼。
在礼节性问候和交换名片后，海德利与该公司的集团经理Osamu Takahashi坐了下来。透过会议室的窗户，白雪覆盖的富士山依晰可见。当Takahashi谈及公司的战略时，他向大家展示了一个微小的用于装一寸硬盘的金属盒，这是他的公司生产的诸多用于电脑、手机和电视机的零部件之一。 Takahashi采用了开门见山和迫不及待的方式，海德利说，这种态度在3年前的日本还很少见。日本长期的经济低迷令日本公司自命不凡的感觉消失的无影无踪，现在日本公司正竭力恢复失地。海德利说，这是看好亚洲的一个理由。"如果日本重新站稳脚跟，日本与亚洲地区将有很大的不同。"
迫使日本改变的最重要因素之一是中国的崛起，中国庞大而低成本的制造业促使亚洲公司重新评估他们的战略。Kuroda希望在中国扩张业务，但是其现有业务同样需要资源：泰国硬盘零部件工厂需要5亿日圆（460万美元)；台湾和韩国液晶显示器零部件工厂需要同等数量的资金；为手机等背景灯显示器生产零部件的日本工厂每年需要至少2亿日圆。
Takahashi通过翻译解释道，"我们需要迅速扩张在中国的业务网络。如果我们在中国的物流顺畅，预计中国业务将会大幅增长。"
海德利说，类似于此的对中国态度的转变是日本公司的一个重要转折点。海德利说，日本对中国感到恐慌并采取行动，中国在这方面帮了日本一个大忙。海德利在Kuroda办公室外面等候计程车前往下一个会议地点时，思索起日本与中国关系在过去几年发生的彻底转变："Kuroda等一些公司认识到他们必须在中国建立物流，否则必死无疑。"
12个小时以后，海德利晚间抵达了寒冷的汉城。在酒店轿车开往市区的途中，车辆和行人显得非常稀疏。海德利说，感觉汉城现在是"彻底的清醒"了。部分原因是政府主导的消费信贷繁荣在去年年底骤然破灭，许多韩国平民背负巨额的信用卡债务和购房债务。
第二晚，海德利与其公司雇佣的一家当地经纪行的分析师和销售人员共进晚餐，但消沉的情绪一直挥之不去。海德利和他的两位同僚在这家餐馆的包间里享用著美食，而对方的言谈却为韩国疲弱的经济又抹上了更多悲观的色调。
韩国的坏消息就是海德利的好消息。海德利后来说道，日本和韩国存在著投资良机，因为人们当前普遍对中国和印度看好，而日本和韩国则远远落在后面。按历史收益计算，韩国综合指数的市盈率大约为13倍。与一些热点市场相比，这是一个便宜的替代选择。比如，以过去收益计算的在港上市中国公司的市盈率大约是21倍。
鉴于价格低廉并且市场关注度低，海德利将韩国股票加入其Matthews Pacific Tiger Fund中，并增加了已有的持股数量。
尽管诸如海德利这样的外国投资者一直买进－－他们帮助推动韩国股市基准指数2003年上涨了30%－－韩国投资者却仍远离股市。海德利对此很坦然。他说，"当地投资者仍然担心将发生意外情况。实际上股市非常健康。"他说，"如果运气好，这种忧虑情绪将对公司的过度支出起到限制作用。"
这个问题在海德利和一位同僚造访一家从事互联网业务的公司时表现出来。海德利两年前购买了这家公司的股票，其股价自那时起到现在已经上涨了151%。但是海德利在离开那家公司时却感到担忧："华丽"的新办公室彷佛显示出公司的管理层正"陶醉"于自己的成功。
但是海德利说，他相信这次注入的资金将被更加谨慎的使用。他说，在上次金融危机之前，资金运用不当的现象比比皆是。他补充说，现在管理糟糕的公司被淘汰出局，管理良好的公司获得了资金。
海德利说，他发现这些天亚洲公司更易于接触，部分原因是他们需要维持外国资金的流入。资金的水龙头去年被打开了，全球投资者全年购买以亚洲投资（不包括日本）为主的共同基金的净资金达73亿美元，是1996年的两倍还多。据EmergingPortfolio.Com Fund Research称，流入日本股票基金的资金较2003年增长了45%。
但是现在距离流入亚洲的资金达到危机警戒水平还有一段路程。1997年2月，日本在摩根士丹利资本国际所有国家全球指数(MSCI All-Country World Free Index)中的比重为14.5%。日本除外的亚洲占8.4%。而2003年12月，日本的比重为8.6%，亚洲其他地区的比重为5.6%。
在海德利准备从汉城登机返回旧金山时，他乐观的表示。当前的资金流入热潮不会导致类似于上次的灾难。 海德利说，热衷于投资是"人类本性"。但由于上次泡沫破灭仍记忆尤新，他补充说，"这一次根基会很牢固。"
