Behind China's Stance on North Korea Beijing's Tack on Nuclear Test May Signal
Shift in Long-Held Policy of Noninterference
November 6, 2006; Page A6
BEIJING -- Shortly after North Korea conducted its first nuclear-weapons test last month, regulators here quietly told China's banks to suspend their dealings with the nation -- a move that has largely severed Pyongyang's most important link to the world financial system.
Beijing made no public announcement. Still, the message to North Korea was clear: China, long averse to imposing any kind of economic sanctions, was willing to go beyond penalties imposed by the United Nations to force North Korea to back down.
The banking measure and other pressure applied by Beijing -- including a cut in oil exports to North Korea and two votes at the U.N. in favor of economic sanctions against the Pyongyang regime -- are widely credited with getting North Korea to agree to return to Chinese-led talks aimed at dismantling its nuclear-arms programs.
China's unusual, if quiet, activism may signal a significant change in its view of the world and its approach to foreign policy since it formally wired itself into the global economy five years ago by joining the World Trade Organization.
Beijing's long-held policy of not interfering in the "internal affairs" of other nations appears to be giving way to a broader definition of its national interests -- one that goes beyond satisfying its fast-growing appetite for oil and other raw materials. China also is showing a greater willingness to embrace global institutions and norms.
"It is an extraordinary thing for China to be now where it is," Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said during a trip to Asia last month. After China supported an Oct. 14 U.N. resolution condemning North Korea's nuclear test, Ms. Rice was so pleased she touted China's more-active stance as almost more significant than the nuclear test itself.
China, a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council since 1971, also is planning to send 1,000 troops to reinforce the U.N. contingent in southern Lebanon after the war there this summer, its largest deployment of peacekeepers to date. China also has become a key player in the debate over how to respond to Iran's nuclear ambitions and the crisis in Darfur.
The evolution of Chinese foreign policy may be most apparent in the case of North Korea. For decades, China's Communist Party and military managed the country's relations with its socialist neighbor, though the two countries' ties frayed after China's shift toward a market economy started to accelerate in the early 1990s and the country normalized relations with South Korea in 1992. Now, a rising and more-pragmatic class of foreign-affairs officials are gaining influence. They talk about Beijing's need to develop daguo xintai, or a great-power mentality.
"There is a change in Chinese thinking. They are acting more like a stakeholder" in the international system, says Michael Green, who stepped down late last year as head of Asian affairs for the Bush administration's National Security Council. "North Korea is helping to push them down that path."
China's increasing tendency to work alongside the U.S. -- or at least not openly against it -- stands in stark contrast with Russia, which has stymied the U.S. on several fronts, including the push to impose sanctions against Iran for its uranium-enrichment program.
Even so, some U.S. officials harbor doubts about China's motivations and the prospects for a broad alignment of interests between Washington and Beijing. Skeptics say China's decision to pressure North Korea stems more from worries about the regional power balance than about support for international efforts to stop the spread of nuclear weapons.
Chinese foreign policy also remains heavily influenced by the voracious demand of its fast-growing economy for oil and other natural resources. Critics say Beijing has turned a blind eye to actions by the governments of oil-rich countries such as Sudan and Iran. Until recently, China had been reluctant to consider U.N. sanctions against Tehran for its nuclear program.
An immediate test of China's resolve on North Korea will be whether Beijing sticks to its tough stance against Pyongyang now that the North has agreed to return to six-nation disarmament talks. In the past, China has put pressure on North Korea to attend the talks but hasn't used the full weight of its economic leverage to force a resolution.
China's Foreign Ministry spokesman, Liu Jianchao, said Thursday that Beijing would continue to enforce U.N. sanctions -- which bar weapons sales and luxury-goods shipments to North Korea -- even after talks resume. "Each country has a duty to strictly and responsibly implement" the U.N. resolution, "and China is no exception," he said.
The Chinese restrictions on bank transactions with North Korea remain in place, and analysts say the curbs could lead to serious economic hardship within months or even weeks. An official of China's largest oil company, state-controlled China National Petroleum Corp., said he expected China's oil exports to North Korea to return to normal when the talks get under way. Diplomats say they expect the talks to resume in Beijing by year end.
Since the six-nation talks on North Korea's nuclear program began in 2003, China repeatedly has urged Washington to be more flexible in the hopes of making diplomatic progress. Privately, Chinese officials started to lose patience as Pyongyang and its leader, Kim Jong Il, resorted to a combination of brinkmanship and foot-dragging that has left the talks at a standstill since last year.
In 2005, North Korea declared itself a nuclear power. Then, despite objections from China and its neighbors, the North test-launched a series of ballistic missiles.
North Korea's decision to go ahead with its nuclear test in early October -- despite stern warnings from Beijing to desist -- put the country at odds with China's national interests by threatening to spark an arms race in the region that could lead to Japan, China's main regional rival, increasing its military strength.
After North Korea's missile tests, China voted in favor of a U.N. sanctions resolution against Pyongyang, in what may be the first time Beijing didn't veto or abstain from a sanctions vote. After North Korea detonated its atomic device, China voted in favor of even stricter sanctions at the U.N. -- and it is now going beyond that on its own.
The current steps may be temporary and aimed at forcing Pyongyang back to the negotiating table, but they appear to show Beijing's desire to strike a balance between maintaining regional stability and protecting the broader international system for controlling the spread of nuclear weapons.
Some senior U.S. administration officials remain skeptical of China's new posture, arguing that North Korea is a special case in which one of Beijing's few close allies betrayed it by testing a nuclear bomb. "China was humiliated," says one senior administration official. "They had no choice but to support the resolution that the U.S. and others put forward."
Still, there are other signs China is stepping out of its historical role. Chinese officials resent criticism of their country's economic dealings with Sudan, where civil war has spilled over into mass killings of civilians in the Darfur region. The officials say China is quietly working behind the scenes to bring peace to the area. "We use our good relationship and cooperation with the government" to push for a settlement, says Zhai Jun, assistant foreign minister for African affairs. "But we don't have to announce every time we do this."
The next test of China's commitment to its newfound activism may be Iran, whose nuclear ambitions have left it at odds with the U.N. Security Council. Iran's uranium-enrichment program has raised suspicions that the country is pursuing nuclear arms, though Tehran insists the program is for civilian energy purposes.
In July, China joined Russia and the other three permanent Security Council members -- the U.S., Britain and France -- in backing a resolution threatening Iran with sanctions unless it dropped its uranium-enrichment program and returned to negotiations. Now the five countries are trying to hammer out a set of sanctions they can all endorse. Chinese backing for even a limited sanctions package would be noteworthy. Iran is China's third-largest supplier of imported oil. This year, China's imports from Iran are likely to top $12 billion.
中国希望在朝核问题上有更大作为
在朝鲜上个月宣布首次进行核试验后不久，中国有关部门悄悄通知各家银行中断与朝鲜的业务往来──这基本等于切断了朝鲜与世界金融体系最重要的一条纽带。
北京并未就此发表公开声明。不过，中方给朝鲜的信号很明确：为了迫使朝鲜放弃核试验，长期反对实施经济制裁的中国已开始考虑在联合国制裁措施以外采取更多行动。
相关报导
? 俄中不支持联合国对伊朗决议草案
? 金融重压促使朝鲜重返六方会谈
? 朝鲜同意重返六方会谈
? 中国各大银行停止与朝鲜业务往来
? 美国求诸亚洲国家共同制裁朝鲜
? 朝鲜核试验令中国左右为难
人们普遍认为，中国对朝鲜施加的压力是朝鲜同意恢复六方会谈的根本原因。除了切断与朝鲜的银行往来，中国还采取了诸如削减对朝石油出口以及在联合国投票赞成对朝鲜实施经济制裁等动作。
中国在朝鲜问题上的这些一反常态的举动凸显出中国自5年前加入世界贸易组织(WTO)、彻底融入全球经济体系之后，在对世界局势的认识及外交政策立场上的转变。
北京长期坚持的不干涉他国“内政”的立场似乎已被更广泛的国家利益所取代──除了力图满足本国快速增长的石油和其他原材料需求外，北京还表现出对全球性行动计划和规范更大程度的接受。
“这对中国而言可谓是异乎寻常，”美国国务卿赖斯(Condoleezza Rice)在上周出访亚洲时称。在中国10月14日表示支持联合国制裁朝鲜的决议后，赖斯对中国大加赞赏，她表示，中国表现出的积极立场要比核试验问题本身更重要。
与此同时，旨在巩固中国与非洲大陆良好关系的中非合作论坛于周日在北京圆满落幕。其间中国领导人与非洲国家签署了价值数十亿美元的资源开发和投资协议，并同意为非洲提供发展资金。中国的经济发展已帮助数百万人民摆脱贫困；作为发展中国家，中国对非洲的援助更具有特殊意义，与此同时，中国也在努力增强与非洲的贸易往来。
作为联合国安全理事会常任理事国，中国还将向联合国驻黎巴嫩南部军队增派1,000人，该地区是联合国部署维和人员最多的地区。与此同时，中国在有关如何应对伊朗核计划以及处理达尔富尔人道危机的过程中也发挥着重要作用。
中国外交政策的改变在朝鲜问题上得到了最突出的体现。几十年来，中朝关系一直掌控在中国共产党及共产党军队手中，但两国关系在九十年代中国向市场经济转变的过程中出现恶化，1992年，中国与韩国建立了正式外交关系。现在，中国外交事务官员中逐渐涌现出一批更注重实效的新生力量，并且他们的影响日益扩大。他们经常会谈到树立大国心态的话题。
“中国人的想法正在发生转变。他们的行为越来越像国际社会的‘参与者’，”前布什政府国家安全委员会(National Security Council)亚洲事务负责人迈克尔?格林(Michael Green)说。“朝鲜事件对这一发展起到了推动作用。”
中国开始渐渐与美国站在一边──至少不是公开反对美国──这与俄罗斯形成鲜明对照，俄罗斯在包括对伊朗实施制裁等许多问题上都在与美国唱反调。
即便如此，美国部分官员对中国的动机以及中美两国广泛利益联盟的前景仍然表示担忧。怀疑人士指出，中国对朝鲜施压主要是出于平衡地区实力的考虑，其次才是支持国际社会阻止核扩散的努力。
中国在经济发展过程中对石油以及其他自然资源如饥似渴的需求也明显影响了该国外交政策。批评人士指出，北京对苏丹和伊朗等石油储备丰富的国家一直在采取“睁只眼闭只眼”的态度。直到最近，北京才开始勉强考虑联合国对伊朗的核制裁措施。
眼下，中国对朝鲜问题的态度将面临新的考验。在朝鲜同意重返谈判之后，北京能否在朝鲜问题上坚持强硬立场自然引起了国际社会的广泛关注。过去，中国曾向朝鲜施压要求其参加谈判，但从未充分利用经济杠杆来促成问题的解决。
中国外交部发言人刘建超上周四表示，即便在恢复谈判后，中国也将继续对朝鲜执行联合国制裁措施──禁止向朝鲜出售武器及奢侈品。他表示，每个国家都有义务严格执行联合国协议，中国也不例外。
中国在对朝银行交易方面的限制仍在继续，分析师称，这一限制如持续下去，几个月甚至几周后将给朝鲜经济带来重大难题。中国最大的石油企业──中国石油天然气集团公司(China National Petroleum Corporation.)的一位人士说，他预计当六方会谈恢复后，中国对朝鲜的石油出口将恢复正常。据外交人士表示，预计六方会谈将于年底前在北京举行。
华盛顿研究机构美国企业研究所(American Enterprise Institute)的朝鲜问题专家尼古拉斯?艾伯斯塔特(Nicholas Eberstadt)说，在上世纪90年代和最近这些年，中国实际充当了朝鲜“最终援助国”的角色，中国一直在贴补朝鲜对华贸易亏空，这实际上等于给朝鲜当局提供资助。
自2003年开始举行旨在打破朝鲜核计划僵局的六方会谈以来，中国多次敦促美国为取得外交进展采取更灵活的立场。但在私下里，中国官员开始失去耐心，因为朝鲜政府及其领导人金正日(Kim Jong Il)采取了激化加拖延的做法，这种做法最终导致谈判在去年中止。
去年，朝鲜宣布自己成为核国家。后来，朝鲜不顾中国及其邻国的反对，在美国独立日试射了多枚弹道导弹以展示其军力。
尽管受到了中国的严厉警告，但朝鲜仍决定在今年10月初进行核试验，这使其与中国的国家利益发生了冲突，因为这种做法可能引发该地区的军备竞赛，激发中国在东北亚的主要对手日本借机增强军事实力。
曾在美国国家安全委员会任职的格林说，在中国前领导人江泽民任内，中国将美国视为主要对手和竞争者，朝鲜则成了防御美国和日本的缓冲。格林目前在华盛顿的战略与国际研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)任职。
去年，格林曾与中国国家主席胡锦涛举行单独会谈，向他转达总统布什(George W. Bush)有关朝鲜问题的讯息。他说，胡锦涛“非常不喜欢朝鲜”，称该国“令中国头痛，是对其核心利益的威胁。”
中国军方领导人对朝鲜的态度也趋于冷淡。上海社会科学院(Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences)朝鲜问题专家刘鸣说，新一代军队领导人与上一代人不同。他们对朝鲜军队没什么深厚感情。
尽管直到不久前，中国在实施可能危及金正日政权的制裁方面还保持克制，但它也在逐步加大施压力度。在美国威胁制裁位于澳门的汇业银行(Banco Delta Asia)后，澳门当局冻结了朝鲜人在该行的账户。
在朝鲜7月份试射弹道导弹后，中国对联合国制裁朝鲜的决议投了赞成票，这也是中国在制裁朝鲜问题上首次没有否决或弃权。在朝鲜进行核试验后，中国在联合国投票支持采取更严厉的制裁措施，并自觉履行了决议。
目前的措施可能是暂时的，目的是为了让朝鲜重新回到谈判桌前。但这可能显示出中国希望在保持地区稳定和保护控制核武器扩散的国际体系之间达成平衡。
美国部分高级官员对中国的新姿态仍持怀疑态度，称这次试验是个特例。作为中国最亲密盟友的朝鲜进行的这次核试验背叛了中国，一位高级政府官员称，这让中国“感到蒙受了耻辱”，作为回应，他们除了支持美国等国家提出的决议外别无选择。
不过，还有其它迹象显示中国正在逐步发挥前所未有的作用。中国官员对外界批评中国与正发生内战的苏丹保持经贸联系深为不满。这些官员表示，中国一直在幕后做努力，希望给该地区带来和平。中国外交部主管非洲事务的部长助理翟隽说，我们利用同苏丹政府的良好关系及合作推动问题的解决。但我们并未对外声张。
中国的积极态度面临的下一个考验将是伊朗问题。外界怀疑伊朗有可能利用浓缩铀计划开发核武器，而伊朗则坚称，该计划只会用于民用能源项目。
今年7月，中国和俄罗斯及另外三个安理会常任理事国──美国、英国和法国──一起对联合国决意表示支持，要求伊朗取消核计划，恢复谈判，否则将对其实施制裁。目前五个常任理事国希望敲定一份能为各方所接受的制裁方案。即使制裁内容有限，中国如果表示支持也将引起高度关注，因为伊朗是中国第三大原油供应国。今年中国从伊朗进口原油的金额有望达到120亿美元。
Gordon Fairclough / Neil King Jr.
