BMW gambles on the mass market
When BMW unveils the first official pictures of its new 1-Series hatchback next week, the German carmaker will be taking a big gamble on the changing tastes of drivers.
BMW believes customers no longer equate luxury with exclusivity, meaning it can sell as many vehicles as it wants without damaging its brand or cutting its premium prices.
If it is right, the move into family hatchbacks has the potential to push up sales sharply without hurting margins. If it is wrong, profits could be hit by a double whammy as buyers of the larger 3-Series switch to the cheaper hatchback while status-seekers are put off the highly profitable 5 and 7-Series. The risk is that the new car could take the shine off the brand although it would have cost upwards of �1bn ($1.2bn) in development.
Michael Ganal, sales and marketing director, says the days of luxury cars selling in small numbers only to the rich are over. "What is the limit of a premium brand? It's not a limit of 100,000, 500,000 or 1m," he says. "It is really measured by the number of focused solutions for specific target groups."
In the case of the 1-Series, the target audience is the buyer of the traditional family hatchback - the Volkswagen Golf or Ford Focus - who is willing to spend more on a vehicle with more "sporty" characteristics.
In some ways, BMW is hoping to repeat the success VW had in the 1980s with the Golf Gti. This appealed to well-off young professionals, who wanted the flexibility of a hatchback but with more power and an upmarket image.
BMW is coy about how many 1-Series it expects to sell. But it is adding capacity of 150,000 extra vehicles, which could produce either the new car or the 3-Series, implying it expects around this level of 1-Series sales.
This appears relatively modest in the context of 600,000 sales targeted for the Golf, the biggest-selling family hatchback, this year. But for BMW it is a big gamble, adding more than 10 per cent to its global production of 1.1m cars last year.
The company insists it will make the same return on investment from the 1-Series as from larger, more profitable vehicles. This will be helped by the sharing of more than half the components with the 3-Series, lowering its costs, while it will charge prices far above mass-market rivals.
However, other premium brands have stumbled when they attempted to enter the mass market. The Mercedes A-Class is not just a small Mercedes: it uses an innovative engine angle and high driving position to create as much internal space as a people-carrier. But it has not met sales ambitions after a troubled launch, and analysts believe it remains unprofitable.
Audi, the upmarket brand owned by Volkswagen, has also had trouble with its A2, an aluminium-bodied small car which failed to meet sales targets and is expected to be phased out.
These cases have not put BMW off, though. Mr Ganal argues that while the A-Class may not have reached targets, its sales of more than 100,000 a year are proof that people are willing to pay a premium price even for a small car. BMW's own revival of Mini has strengthened his case, with sales of the iconic small car reaching 176,465 last year.
But even Mr Ganal admits that a minority of its top-of-the-range buyers want a brand which isn't seen in every garage. They will, he says, have to go elsewhere.
"If I have to decide do I want to feed their wish for exclusivity against the vast numbers of people who would like to drive a BMW, I would always go for growth," he said.
"There is a risk built in but compared to our 2 per cent share [of the global car market] it is a small risk."
If the 1-Series proves a success, the question for BMW is how much further can it stretch the brand?
It is already trying to develop a people carrier, a vehicle BMW engineers would have rejected out of hand a decade ago. Its X3 small offroader will be launched this year. But insiders insist there are limits: don't expect a BMW pick-up truck any time soon.
宝马豪赌大众市场
宝马(BMW)将于下周首次发布其新款1系列掀背车的正式图片。届时，这家德国汽车生产商将对驾车者不断改变的品位来一次豪赌。
宝马相信，客户不再把豪华等同于独享。这就意味着，在不损害品牌或削减高价位的前提下，宝马可以想卖多少车就卖多少车。
如果这种看法正确，转向家用掀背车的举措，就有可能在不损害利润率的同时大幅提升销量。如果这种看法有误，盈利状况就有可能遭受双重打击，因为一方面，大型3系列车的买家将转而购买比较便宜的掀背车，而另一方面，注重身份的买家就不会再购买利润丰厚的5系列和7系列车。风险在于，虽然新车的开发成本也许超过10亿欧元（合12亿美元），但它可能会令宝马品牌失去光彩。
宝马销售与营销总监迈克尔o加纳尔(Michael Ganal)表示，豪华车仅向富人少量发售的时代已经结束。"高档品牌的限制是什么？不是在数量上10万、50万或100万的限制，"他说，"其实是由为特定目标群体提供的专门解决方案的数量来衡量。"
就1系列车而言，其目标受众是大众高尔夫(Volkswagen Golf)或福特福克斯(Ford Focus)等传统家用掀背车的购买者，他们将愿意花更多钱购买"运动"特征更多的车。
从某种意义上说，宝马希望重现大众(VW)在上世纪80年代通过其高尔夫Gti(Golf Gti)获得的成功。当时，该车型吸引了富有的年轻职业人士，他们想要掀背车的灵活性，但同时希望该车有更强劲的马力，并展现一种高档形象。
对于预期销售多少1系列车，宝马没有明说。但公司将另增15万辆车的产能，可以生产新车或3系列车，此举暗示，宝马期望1系列车的销量大约达到这个水平。
掀背车家族最畅销的大众高尔夫今年的销售目标是60万辆，相比之下，宝马的目标销量似乎不算什么。但对宝马来说，去年其全球产量为110万辆，今年在此基础上增幅超过10%，不啻于一场豪赌。
公司坚称，相比更大、利润更高的车型而言，投资1系列获得的回报率将一样高。部分原因是，1系列将与3系列共享半数以上的部件，这将降低1系列车的生产成本，而与此同时，1系列的售价将大大高于大众市场的竞争车型。
然而，在试图进入大众市场时，其他一些高档车品牌都曾遭受挫折。奔驰A级车(Mercedes A-Class)不仅是一种小型奔驰车：它采用了创新的引擎夹角和高驾车位，以便该车的内部空间与载客车一样大。但是，继麻烦重重的新车发布后，该车型尚未实现其雄心勃勃的销售目标，而分析师认为，该车仍未实现盈利。
大众汽车拥有的高档车品牌奥迪(Audi)在推广其A2车型时也遇到了麻烦。这款全铝车身的小汽车未能达到销售目标，而且预计将被逐渐淘汰。
这些事例并未让宝马却步。加纳尔先生声称，尽管奔驰A级车可能没达到销售目标，但其年销量超过10万辆，这就证明哪怕是一辆小汽车，人们也愿意出高价购买。宝马自身"迷你"(Mini)车的复兴已加强了加纳尔先生的看法，这款设计经典的小汽车去年销量达17.6465万辆。
但是，就连加纳尔先生也承认，在其顶级买家中，有少数人希望拥有一种不是在每个车库都能看到的品牌。他说，他们将不得不到其他地方寻觅。
"我是否想满足他们'独享'的愿望，而不顾一大批想驾驶宝马的人的意愿呢？如果我必须就此作出决定，我总是会以寻求增长为重，"他说。
"其中内含一定的风险，但相对我们（在全球汽车市场）2%的份额来说，这只是个小风险。"
如果最终证明1系列会成功，那宝马面临的问题将是，它能把该品牌进一步推广到什么程度。
宝马已在努力开发一款过，若换作10年前，宝马的工程师压根不会考虑开发这种车型。公司小型越野车X3将在今年推出。但内部人士坚称，这是有有限度：不要指望宝马会在近期推出一款皮卡。
