Japan's long drive to win over China
The Japanese have first- hand experience of how a rapidly developing country's car market can take off - in the five years before the Tokyo Olympics in 1964, vehicle ownership in Japan rose by 424 per cent.
If China's car ownership increases at this pace, its new auto market will be larger than Japan's by the time of the Beijing Olympics in 2008, with sales of about 7m units a year, compared to Japan's 6m.
The figures may be compelling but aside from Honda's successful joint venture in Guangzhou, Japanese carmakers have been tardy in a market that is on the way to becoming the world's largest.
When Toyota's Chinese joint-venture partner pressed it last year to cut the price of its Vios sedan, the Japanese carmaker at first refused, believing its stellar global brand allowed it to transcend such marketing pitches in China.
But pressure from First Automotive Works (FAW) about the need to maintain market share persuaded the reluctant Japanese giant, and Rmb5,000 ($604) was snipped off the Vios price.
"Vios was losing its edge, and cutting prices - although Toyota is reluctant to admit it - seemed the only way to keep customers," said Gao Bo, a Toyota dealer in Tianjin, the home of Toyota's flagship China joint venture
Toyota, which worked for 20 years to gain a 10 per cent market share in the US, has done an about-turn in the last 18 months, and says it plans to achieve the same feat in half that time in China. Toyota has a two per cent market share in China, compared to about 33 per cent for Volkswagen's joint ventures and just under 10 per cent for General Motors.
The 2002 takeover of its original partner in China, Tianjin Automotive, by the far more aggressive FAW, the country's largest manufacturer, means it will be producing 95,000 Toyota-branded vehicles by 2005.
By 2008, Toyota's overall output capacity, backed by another joint venture in Guangzhou, is expected to reach 500,000-600,000. In the shorter term, Toyota's forecast of 95,000 units by 2005 contrasts unfavourably with its main Japanese rivals.
Nissan, another Japanese laggard in China, is also ramping up production in association with Dongfeng Automotive, aiming for 225,000 vehicles by 2006.
Many analysts say the Chinese market is a marathon not a sprint, and that the Japanese have the qualities to excel in such a race. "Once they become serious and mobilise resources to do something, they get the job done," said Paul Gao, of McKinsey in Shanghai.
The Japanese were good at designing car interiors that appealed to Asians, including the Chinese.
Japanese companies must compete against an occasionally hostile climate in the Chinese media and among some members of the public because of lingering memories of the war.
The companies also have a poor reputation as employers in China because they are unwilling to promote Chinese into senior positions. Despite these factors, their cars have an excellent image on the mainland, the legacy of years of exports of reliable vehicles. "In our market surveys, people always say, we can't stand the Japanese, but when we ask them what sort of car they want, they say, a Toyota or a Honda," said Michael Dunne, of Automotive Resources Asia, in Shanghai.
The Japanese have also taken a unique approach to handling the politicised nature of the industry in China, in which the government has allowed its favoured auto companies to team with multiple partners.
Toyota, Honda and Nissan have all built or are building significant parts of their mainland businesses in the southern city of Guangzhou, near Hong Kong, which is about as far away as possible from the country's other auto centres. "[The southerners] are the most apolitical and commercially savvy partners and customers in China," said Mr Dunne.
Sometimes, the difficulties cannot be foreseen, as when Toyota began offering China's first DVD navigation system with the Vios. Buyers loved the high-tech maps of Beijing and Shanghai but the People's Liberation Army was less impressed - the technology was regarded as a military secret. That was one struggle Toyota won - the navigation system stayed.
日本车在中国市场上开不快
一个迅猛发展的国家，汽车市场怎样才能起飞，日本对此有第一手经验。在1964年东京奥运会召开前的五年中，日本车辆拥有量增长了424%。
如果中国的汽车拥有量也以这个速度增长，那么到2008年北京奥运会举行时，中国新车市场的规模就将超过日本，汽车年销量将达约700万辆，而日本为600万辆。
这些数字也许很引人注目，但在中国这个趋于成为全球最大汽车市场的国家，除了本田(Honda)在广州成功的合资企业外，其他日本汽车生产商一直行动迟缓。
去年，日本汽车生产商丰田(Toyota)的中方合资伙伴一汽集团(FAW)力促其降低威驰(Vios)轿车的售价。丰田起初不同意，认为凭借一流的国际品牌，它能在中国的此类营销宣传中胜出。
但一汽集团施加压力，称必须维持市场份额，最后劝服这家犹豫不决的日本汽车巨头，把威驰的售价削减了人民币5000元（合604美元）。
"当时威驰正在丧失优势，而虽然丰田不愿承认，但降价看来是留住客户的唯一途径，"天津的一位丰田经销商高波(Gao Bo，音译)说。丰田在中国的旗舰合资公司总部设在天津。
丰田取得美国市场10%的份额花了20年时间，而最近18个月，公司已彻底改变策略，表示计划用一半时间在中国达到与在美国市场同样的业绩。目前丰田在中国占有2%的市场份额，相对来说，大众(Volkswagen)的合资企业占有约33%的市场份额，通用汽车(General Motors)的市场份额则接近10%。
2002年，丰田在中国最早的合作伙伴天津汽车(Tianjin Automotive)被一汽集团收购，这意味着到2005年，丰田在中国将生产9.5万辆丰田车。一汽集团是中国最大的汽车生产商，进取精神远远超过丰田。
丰田还在广州设有一家合资企业。在该企业的支持下，预计到2008年，丰田的总产能将达50万至60万辆。从短期来看，丰田2005年产能达9.5万辆的预期，与主要日本竞争对手相比处在下风。
另一家日本汽车生产商日产(Nissan)在中国市场同样行动迟缓，目前也正与东风汽车(Dongfeng Automotive)联手提高产量，打算到2006年生产22.5万辆车。
许多分析师表示，开拓中国汽车市场是一场马拉松而不是短跑，而日本商家具备赢得这场竞赛的素质。"一旦他们开始认真对待，并调动资源做些什么，那他们就能做成事，"麦肯锡(McKinsey)驻上海的高旭(Paul Gao)说。
就包括中国人在内的亚洲人而言，日本公司擅长于符合他们口味的汽车内部设计。
由于一些挥之不去的战争记忆，中国媒体和一些公众时常会对日本公司显出敌意，所以日本公司在竞争时必须面对这种环境。
由于不愿提升中国人担任高层职务，因此日本公司在中国作为雇主的口碑也不好。但尽管存在这些因素，由于多年来丰田出口的车辆品质可靠，因此丰田车在大陆形象卓越。"在我们的市场调查中，被访者总说他们受不了日本人，但当我们问他们想要哪种车时，他们会说，丰田车或本田车，"亚洲汽车资源(Automotive Resources Asia)驻上海的迈克尔o邓恩(Michael Dunne)说道。
日本人还采取了一种独特的途径，来对付中国汽车行业的政治化特性。在这个行业，政府允许其偏爱的公司与多个伙伴结盟。
丰田、本田和日产均已、或正将各自大陆业务的重要部分设在临近香港的华南城市广州，而与中国其他汽车中心尽可能保持距离。"在中国，（南方人）是最不关心政治，也最有商业头脑的合作伙伴和客户，"邓恩先生说。
有时候，困难是无法预见的，丰田开始通过威驰提供中国首个DVD导航系统时就是如此。当时，威驰的购买者非常喜爱车上显示的北京和上海的电子地图，但中国人民解放军不太高兴，因为这种技术曾被当作军事机密。最后导航系统保留了下来，那一次丰田赢了一局。
