Becoming a Classy Investor
When folks shoot the breeze about investing, they still mostly talk about which way the markets are headed next and which stocks and mutual funds are hot.
But listen carefully, and you will detect a subtle change from a decade ago. Amid all the hollow boasts and garbage predictions, now there is a lot more talk about "asset classes," a fancy term that's slapped on market sectors like small U.S. stocks, real-estate investment trusts and foreign bonds.
Make no mistake: This is a huge step forward. If you think of yourself as an asset-class investor, you are likely to build better portfolios and make smarter fund choices.
Showing Their Class
Why are investors more focused on asset classes? A big reason, I believe, has been the proliferation and increasing specialization of mutual funds.
Ten years ago, investors would simply ask, "what's a good fund?" Today, folks are more likely to say, "I want to invest in emerging-markets stocks. Got any funds you like?"
There's been a growing realization that, when you buy a mutual fund, what you're getting is a package of securities that gives you exposure to a particular part of the global market. Most funds concentrate on a single sector, such as high-yield junk bonds, large-company U.S. stocks, emerging-markets bonds or smaller companies in developed foreign stock markets.
In any given year, a fund may do better or worse than the sector it specializes in. But its results probably won't be radically different. If the junk-bond market tanks next year, it's highly unlikely that your junk-bond fund will make money.
But keeping tabs on asset classes won't just help you to understand what's driving your portfolio's performance. You will also have a better handle on whether your fund managers are earning their keep.
Want to see how your funds stack up? Go to
www.morningstar.com. There, you will find not only individual fund returns, but also how this performance compares to a fund's benchmark index and to the average for all funds in the category.
If one of your funds regularly lags behind its category average, maybe it's time to shift to a better-performing manager or, alternatively, to lock in the sector's return by buying a market-tracking index fund.
Mixing It Up
As an asset-class investor, you are likely to find yourself thinking a lot more about diversification. Let's say you decide you want exposure to small U.S. companies. Clearly, you don't want to miss out on the sector's performance.
With that in mind, funds seem a whole lot more appealing than individual stocks. The reason: With a fund, you get a portfolio that might include hundreds of securities, thereby bolstering your chances of capturing the sector's performance.
But you shouldn't just focus on diversification within sectors. There's also the issue of diversification across sectors.
Take a look at your portfolio. The odds are, the bulk of your money is in just two asset classes, high-quality U.S. bonds and blue-chip U.S. stocks. What if these two core sectors go through a long dry spell?
To hedge your bets, you might add other asset classes, such as foreign bonds, real-estate investment trusts, gold shares and foreign stocks. These other sectors don't always move in sync with U.S. stocks and bonds, so they may deliver gains when your U.S. stocks and bonds are performing poorly.
Indeed, today, many experts advise settling on a broad collection of asset classes and then assigning target portfolio percentages to each.
For instance, you might invest 30% in blue-chip U.S. stocks and 30% in high-quality U.S. bonds, and then round out your portfolio by adding 10% foreign stocks, 10% smaller U.S. companies, 5% real-estate investment trusts, 6% foreign bonds, 6% high-yield junk bonds and 3% gold stocks.
Thereafter, you should aim to rebalance back to these target percentages every year or so, by adding to sectors that are suffering, while throttling back on those that have done well.
This rebalancing will keep your portfolio's risk level under control, and it may also boost returns.
Slicing It Thin
While I think focusing on sectors rather than individual investments is a big improvement, this new approach still carries risks. One danger: You bet on sectors that aren't viable long-term investments. To reduce that risk, I would be careful not to slice the global markets too thin.
For instance, I could see buying sector funds that specialize in real-estate investment trusts and in gold stocks. These sectors are not only good diversifiers, but also they are unlikely to be rendered redundant by technological change. I would be leery, however, of other single-industry funds.
"In 1900, the leather-goods industry was one of the biggest business sectors in the U.S.," notes William Bernstein, an investment adviser in North Bend, Ore. "You don't want to end up owning the next leather-goods industry. That might be microchips. That might be consumer electronics. That might be the auto industry."
Similarly, I wouldn't buy funds that focus on a single foreign country, especially a developing country. Suppose the country is racked by political turmoil and the stock market gets shut down. You could wind up losing your entire investment.
As you analyze asset classes, there's also a danger you will become convinced that, say, emerging-markets stocks are set to soar. Thus emboldened, you might roll the dice, betting a bundle on an emerging-markets fund, only to panic and sell when the market turns against you.
To avoid this sort of blunder, never invest more in a sector than you are willing to hold over the long haul. "In the old days, investors would lose all their money chasing hot stocks," Mr. Bernstein quips. "Today, they lose only two-thirds of it chasing hot asset classes. That's what I call progress."
成为资产类别投资者
每当人们聊起投资，多半都在谈论今后的市场走势以及哪些股票或是共同基金很热门。
但仔细听，这些谈话内容与十年前相比已经发生了微妙变化。在虚夸和胡乱的臆测中，"资产类别"这个词也开始逐渐出现在人们的谈话中。就象美国小型股、房地产投资基金和外国债券一样，也成为了各个市场的流行词汇。
别搞错了：这可是投资者的一大进步。如果你觉得自己是一个按照资产类别进行投资的投资者，你就有可能设计出更好的投资组合，做出更明智的投资决定。
为什么投资者如今更关注资产类别了？我认为一个很重要的原因是共同基金的成长和日趋专业化的发展趋势。
十年前，投资者只会问"哪个基金比较好？"而今天，他们会问，"我打算投资新兴市场股票，哪个基金不错？"
人们逐渐开始意识到，购买共同基金实际是购买一个证券组合，让你在全球市场中的某一部分拥有一定的投资。多数基金只会专注于某一个领域，比如有的只投资高回报率的垃圾债券，有的投资美国大型公司股票，有的投资新兴市场债券或海外发达市场上的中小型公司股票。
就单独某一年来说，共同基金的表现可能会强于或弱于其投资的行业的整体表现。但结果不会有太大的不同。如果垃圾债券明年惨跌，那垃圾债券基金也不大可能有好的投资回报。
明确投资资产的类别不仅能帮助你识别出哪类资产促使了你投资组合的增长，还能够让你判断出你的基金经理人表现如何。
想不想知道你的基金的表现？登录到网站
www.morningstar.com上。这里不但可以让你看到个别基金的回报率，还可以将其与基准指数、所有同类基金的平均回报率水平做对比。
如果你的某只基金的回报总是低于同类基金的平均回报，你可能就应当选择把资金交给另一个投资经理或是购买一只追踪大盘的指数基金了。
如果你是一个类别资产投资者，你会发现自己总在考虑分散投资的问题。比方说你想投资于美国的小型公司，你肯定希望自己的投资回报能够至少达到整个这类股的回报率。 这样一想，投资基金就比个股更有吸引力。原因是：投资基金，你的投资组合可能包括数百只股票，这样你赚得类股回报的可能性就更大。
但是，你不能只注意在某类股内部的分散投资。在各类不同资产之间，也有分散投资的问题。
看看你的投资组合，可能很大部分资金都被放在两类资产上：美国国债和蓝筹股。如果这两类资产未来很长时间都低迷不振怎么办？
为了规避这种可能的风险，你应当在投资组合中再增加其他类型的资产，比如外国债券、房地产投资基金和外国股票等。这几类资产的走势不一定和美国股票及债券一致。所以，当你的美国股票和债券不赚钱时，这几类投资可能就会有利可图了。 如今，很多专家都建议在各类资产中广泛投资，要设定好各类资产在你的投资组合中的目标投资比例。
比如，你的投资30%是美国蓝筹股，30%是高质量的美国债券；然后再把10%的资金投资于外国股票；10%投资于小型美国公司；5%投资于房地产投资基金；6%投资外国债券；6%投资高收益率的垃圾债券；最后3%投资于贵金属类股。
以后的每年，你都要对投资组合进行调整，使其在各类资产上的投资比例符合你制定的目标比例。这种调整可以将整个投资组合的风险控制在一定水平，同时还有可能提高回报率。 虽然我觉得投资多类资产与投资单一资产相比是一大进步，但这种做法也并不是没有风险。风险一：你选择的资产不适合长期投资。为规避这种风险，投资于全球各种市场的比例就不能太少。
比如，可以购买房地产投资基金或是贵金属类股基金。它们不仅可以有效的分散投资组合的风险，即使科技更新换代了，这类资产也不会受到太大的影响。但对于其他类基金我就比较慎重了。
同样，我也不会选择只投资于某个国家的外国股票基金，尤其是只投资于一个发展中国家的基金。想想如果这个国家发生了政治动荡，股市因此关闭了。那么你的所有投资全完了。 你在分析资产类别时也会有风险。比如说，你可能会坚信新兴市场股票将大幅上扬，因此可能会将很大一部分投资投向新兴市场股票基金。一旦发现事与愿违，又会马上惊恐地全部解除头寸。
为了避免这样的重大失误，永远不要在一类资产上投入超出你长期目标投资比例的资金。俄勒冈州投资顾问威廉?伯恩斯坦(William Bernstein)说，从前，追涨明星股票的投资者往往输得精光。而如今，通过在不同资产上的分散投资，他们只会损失三分之二的投资。这就是进步的表现。
