All About Yield
Late last year, I was complaining that every part of the global market seemed expensive. And while bargains remain hard to come by, the turmoil of recent weeks has shaken up valuations, especially in the bond market.
Sure, stocks still ought to beat bonds over the next 10 years, and sure, money-market funds still seem like a safer bet. But thanks to the recent rise in interest rates, bonds are looking a heck of a lot more attractive.
Challenging stocks. In just eight weeks, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note has jumped to 4.8%, from 3.7%. True, a 4.8% yield isn't exactly cause for salivation.
Still, over the next 10 years, you may not do a whole lot better with stocks. If you purchase shares in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index today and hold them for 10 years, you will get a dividend yield of more than 1.6%, plus maybe 5% a year growth in earnings per share. Put it together, and you will have an annual total return approaching 7%.
But collecting this 7% hinges on the S&P 500 hanging in there at its current ratio of 22 times 12-month reported earnings. That is well above the historical average of 15 times earnings. What if the market's price/earnings multiple drifts lower? There's a chance that bonds could outpace stocks over the next decade.
I am not suggesting you dump all your stocks. But if you're inclined to be a little more conservative, swapping the traditional 60-40 stock-bond mix for something more like 50-50, you probably won't pay a big price in performance, and you could come out ahead.
Boosting yield. As interest rates have risen this year, investors have bailed out of longer-term bonds, instead favoring the safety of money-market funds. There's a good reason for that reaction: When interest rates climb, bond prices fall, with the biggest hit usually suffered at the long end of the bond market.
But while money-market funds may have been the best place to hide this year, eventually you will want to lengthen the maturity of your bond portfolio to take advantage of today's more generous yields. Indeed, while money-market funds still yield less than 1%, you can get 3% with short-term bonds and 5% with intermediate-term securities.
"If you're somebody who believes in buying low and selling high, this isn't a bad time to increase your bond allocation, extend your maturities or both," argues William Bernstein, author of "The Four Pillars of Investing."
The $64,000 question: When should you make the move? I haven't a clue. But my inclination would be to open an account with a no-load, low-expense intermediate-term bond fund, such as USAA Intermediate-Term Bond or Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate, and then add to the account in the months ahead.
Mutual benefits. Many folks will balk at this advice. No, it isn't that they fear a further big rise in interest rates. Rather, they hate bond funds, preferring the greater certainty of individual bonds.
I think this is misguided. True, an individual bond will eventually mature, at which point you will get back its principal value. Meanwhile, bond funds almost never have a maturity date, so you cannot be sure what your return will be.
But in return for accepting this modest amount of uncertainty, bond-fund investors get a key benefit. While it's tricky to reinvest the interest payments from an individual bond, it's a cinch with bond funds, which allow you to automatically reinvest your interest payments in additional shares.
That reinvestment is critical to earning decent long-run returns. Let's say you invest $1,000 in a bond fund yielding 5%. If rates stay at 5% over the next 20 years, you will make $1,653. But almost 40% of that gain will come from reinvesting your interest payments and thereby earning additional interest.
Indeed, while the bond market's selloff has been painful, it could end up bolstering your wealth. The reason: You now have the chance to reinvest your interest payments at higher yields.
"If you won't be using this money for years, you really stand to benefit" from the rise in bond yields, says John Hollyer, a bond-fund manager at Vanguard Group in Malvern, Pa. "You'll be compounding at a higher rate now."
Outpacing inflation. As you wade back into the bond market, don't overlook Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities.
These bonds, also known as TIPS, are possibly the world's safest investment. To be sure, they fluctuate in value. But there's no risk of default, because the bonds are backed by the U.S. government.
More important, you get long-run inflation protection. Not only is the principal value of these bonds stepped up along with the consumer price index, but also you get a small additional yield.
In mid-March, the above-inflation yield on 10-year inflation-indexed Treasurys fell below 1.4%. But since then, the "real" yield has climbed sharply, so you can now lock in 2.2% a year above inflation.
At that level, inflation bonds seem like a decent bet. I would follow the same strategy I suggested for intermediate-term bonds: Make an initial investment in a low-cost fund, like TIAA-CREF Inflation-Linked Bond or Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities.
Thereafter, toss $100 or $200 into the fund every month. With any luck, inflation bonds will slide a little further and you will get a chance to buy at even better yields.
利率上升会使债券更加诱人
去年，我一直抱怨全球市场上各种投资的价格普遍偏高。尽管划算的投资机会现在仍不容易碰到，但最近几周市场的动荡已经引起了投资价值的变动，债券市场尤其如此。
今后十年中，尽管投资股票还是比投资债券回报高，投资货币市场基金比投资债券更安全，但随著近期利率的上升，债券投资的吸引力也大大增强了。
挑战股市
短短八周时间，基准10年期美国国债收益率就从3.7%上升到了4.8%。当然，4.8%的收益率还没有达到让人垂涎的地步。
不过在今后十年里，你的股票可能不会一路上扬。如果你买进了标准普尔500种股票指数的成份股，并一直持有十年，股息收益率大约超过1.6%，此外股票的每股收益每年能增长5%左右。这样算起来，你总共获得的年回报率接近7%。
但你能否获得这7%要取决于标准普尔500指数按照所公布的12个月收益计算出的本益比能否保持在当前的22。这个本益比数字大大高于15这个历史平均水平。如果市场本益比大大下降了呢？在今后十年里，债券的收益就可能超过股票。
我并不是建议你抛出所有的股票。但如果你略微转变投资策略，将传统的股票债券六四开的投资比例作些调整，比如变为二者平分秋色，那你可能并不需要付出太多，就能获得高于平均水平的回报。
提高收益率
随著今年利率的上升，一些投资者撤离了中长期债市，转向货币市场基金以寻求安全保障。这样做有充分的理由：当利率提高时，债券价格就会下跌，长期债券遭受的打击尤其沉重。
尽管今年货币市场基金可能是最安全的避风港，但最终你可能还是会希望投资期限长一些的债券以获得更高的收益率。货币市场基金的收益率不足1%，而短期债券的收益率有3%，中期债券收益率大约为5%。
《投资的四大支柱》(The Four Pillars of Investing)一书的作者威廉?伯恩斯坦(William Bernstein)说：“如果你相信低价买入高价卖出，那现在你最好就在投资组合中增持债券，延长所购买国债的期限，或二者并用。”
那么又该在何时采取行动呢？这实在是个高难度的问题，我也无法提供一个明确的答案。但是，我倾向于设立一个免费的低支出中期债券基金帐户，如USAA中期债券或Vanguard中期公司债券，以后每月增加帐户中的投资金额。
互惠互利
许多人会对这项建议望而生畏。实际上这并不是因为他们担心利率进一步上升，而是因为他们不喜欢债券基金，而对投资收益率更稳定的个别债券情有独钟。
我想这些投资者是误入歧途了。的确，某一只债券终将到期，那时你能拿回本金；而债券基金几乎从来都是遥遥无期，因此你无法确定何时能获得回报。
但是，作为这点不确定性的回报，债券基金投资者获得了更大的好处。单独一只债券的利息进行再投资往往很困难，但对债券基金来说则易如反掌，它能自动用所获利息购买更多的债券。
利息再投资对于获得良好的长期回报至关重要。假设你对收益率为5%的债券基金进行了1,000美元的投资。如果在今后20年里收益率维持在5%，你能赚到1,653美元，而其中的40%都是来自对利息进行滚雪球似的再投资。
确实，尽管债券市场上的抛售让人心痛，最终却可能促进你财富的增长。其原因在于，现在你有机会以更高的收益率进行利息再投资了。
宾夕法尼亚州Vanguard Group的债券基金经理约翰?霍雷(John Hollyer)说：“如果这笔钱你多年不用，就能从债券收益率的上升中坐收其利。现在你能以更高的利率计算复利了。”
抵御通货膨胀
当你涉足债市时，不要忽视通货膨胀保值国债(Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities)的作用。
这些债券简称TIPS，大概可以算是世界上最安全的投资了。当然，它们的价值也会波动起伏，但这些债券是以美国政府作为后盾的，因而不存在拖欠的风险。
更重要的是，从长期来看，购买该债券能抵御通货膨胀。不仅这些债券的本金会根据消费者价格指数的变动做出调整，而且你还能得到一小笔额外的收益。
10年期通货膨胀保值国债的收益率3月中旬下降到1.4%以下，但其真实收益率大大攀升，在弥补了通货膨胀率后还能给投资者带来2.2%的收益。
从这一点来看，通货膨胀保值债券似乎是个不错的选择。对于中期债券我的建议遵循同样的策略：刚开始投资要买进低成本债券，如TIAA-CREF Inflation-Linked债券或Vanguard通货膨胀保值债券。
以后，每月在这个基金帐户中投入100或200美元。如果走运的话，通货膨胀保值债券的价格会进一步小幅走低，那时你买入的债券就能获得更高收益率了。
