All in All, a Pretty Good Year
As the year 2005 draws toward passage into history Saturday midnight, the urge to review some of what transpired is too strong to resist. It was a year in which the chattering classes were so strident that one could be led to believe that the world was going badly haywire. In fact, a lot of things went right.
Let's start with economics. Global economic growth will come close to matching the robust 5% pace of last year, thanks to the continued strong performance of the U.S. and China and some renewed signs of life in Europe and Japan. According to Freedom House, political freedom advanced once more, continuing a trend that dates back to the collapse of Soviet communism. Economic freedom expanded as well, as more governments have learned that liberal economic policies relieve poverty and reduce political tensions.
America, with a strong economic advance of about 4%, continued to be the engine of the global economy, in particular pulling along China, which long ago embraced an open-door policy for foreign investors. The U.S. is now close to full employment. As was pointed out last week by the Journal's Stephen Moore and his colleague, Lincoln Anderson, the average American family -- for the first time ever -- now has a net worth exceeding $100,000. Median family income is more than $54,000. This is a phenomenal historic achievement in wealth and income distribution, achieved not through the income-redistribution policies long preached by socialists, but in a free-market system that opens up opportunities and rewards hard work and creativity.
American wealth is reflected in the fact that two-thirds of U.S. households own their own homes and 60% own stocks beneficially. The huge middle class, wearing blue collars, white shirts and T-shirts, are men and women of property. A Dow Jones Industrial Average hovering at 11000 brings joy to their hearts.
No such joy erupts when opinion pollsters ask them what they think of Congress, the presidency and big business. A Pew Research study in October indicated that the public is less than impressed by the performance of high-priced business executives and is even more troubled by the waste and logrolling of Congress and a lack of any serious White House effort to control it. There is no sign that the government is taking seriously the fact that it is piling up financial obligations that future generations won't be able to meet. These signs of an out-of-control legislature and government are dimming the prospects for the Republican Party, which gets and deserves most of the blame for the profligacy.
It is remarkable that at this time of unparalleled prosperity Americans take such a dim view of the institutions that play such a large role in society and the economy. Polls, of course, fluctuate sharply over time but there may be an underlying secular trend, a sense that bigness and backwardness go hand in hand. Fortunately, new ventures proliferate, lending a dynamism to the economy that would be lacking if existing institutions were insulated from challenges, as is too often the case in Europe, for example.
Another big institution, the United Nations, took its lumps during the year, with the Volcker reports fleshing out the details of the Oil for Food scandal. The U.N.'s "global warming" scam, employing junk science in an effort to inflict huge taxes on the industrial world, finally came a cropper in 2005. Britain's Tony Blair blew away the enviro smokescreen and said that there was nothing in the science that would justify curbing the world's economic growth with new tax burdens. Europe was only paying lip service to the Kyoto treaty anyway and the U.S. had refused to play altogether, but it was nice that one European leader finally came clean.
That's not to say that Mother Nature can't wreak havoc and she did in a big way over the last year, with the hurricane Katrina's devastation of New Orleans and Gulf Coast; the tsunami that engulfed the coasts of Indonesia, Thailand and other regions; and the earthquakes that devastated northern Pakistan and Afghanistan. Ironically, the U.S. military proved to be the most effective supplier of relief to overseas victims but was delayed in providing aid in the U.S. by posse comitatus laws, 19th-century artifacts designed to prevent the federal government from using military power domestically. The Katrina performance of the other arms of government was less than impressive.
The U.S. military also functioned well in its more conventional tasks, providing security for a series of free elections in Iraq and Afghanistan. Nation-building in these two states made progress during the year. Both now have elected parliaments and are standing up their own security forces to maintain order and to combat the lethal radicalism that the U.S. has made it a policy to defeat.
But of course, the threat to U.S. security from such forces was not fully dispatched in 2005, nor will it be in 2006. The U.S. military presence in the Middle East has begun to turn the tide against fanaticism, and staying the course in Iraq is vital for avoiding a reversal of that progress. But Iran and Syria remain to be dealt with before a real peace can descend on the region.
The U.S. security pact with Japan was strengthened during the year as that nation developed a desire to play a political role commensurate with its economic importance, not to mention its concern about military modernization in China. A Chinese effort to gain more influence in Southeast Asia through an East Asia summit in Kuala Lumpur in December proved rather anticlimactic. Asians will be suspicious of China as long as it continues to have an authoritarian regime.
The U.S.-European relationship looked up a bit. Germany's Gerhard Schr?der is out, and in some disgrace for accepting a job offer from Moscow. Jacques Chirac's popularity rating is just above zero. Mr. Chirac's protection of wealthy French farmers remains a serious obstacle to a success completion of the Doha round of free trade negotiations but there is still some hope for a deal.
All in all, not a bad year.
2005，足以令人欣慰的一年
2005年将在这个周六的午夜时分成为历史，此时此刻，人们禁不住要对今年发生的一些事情做一番回顾。一些喋喋不休的好事者把这一年数落得一塌糊涂，因此，人们很可能误认为这个世界正变得一团糟。事实上，许多事情还是进展得很不错的。
让我们从经济问题开始。今年的全球经济增长率有望达到去年5%的火爆水平，这既拜美、中两国经济持续强劲增长之赐，也要归功于欧、日经济重新焕发出的生机。据自由之家(Freedom House)称，全球政治自由化也有了更多进展，前苏联解体以来的趋势还在继续。经济自由化方面也有进步，因为有越来越多的国家认识到，经济自由化有助于减轻贫困、缓和政治紧张局势。
美国经济今年将强劲增长4%左右，与早就对外国投资者开放市场的中国一道，美国仍是推动全球经济增长的发动机。美国目前已接近全面就业。本报记者斯蒂芬?摩尔(Stephen Moore)和林肯?安德森(Lincoln Anderson)上周曾指出，美国家庭的平均□资产今年首次超过10万美元。美国家庭的平均收入超过54,000美元。这是在财富和收入分配方面的一项了不起的历史性成就，因为它不是通过社会主义者长期宣扬的收入再分配政策实现的，而是自由市场体制带来的成果，这种制度强调机会均等，并对辛苦劳动和创造性工作给予回报。
美国人的财富体现在，三分之二的美国家庭拥有自己的住房，60%的美国人可以从股票投资中获益。庞大的中产阶级男男女女中既有蓝领，也有白领，他们拥有著大量财富。道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数维持在11000点上下，这样的股市让人们充满了喜悦。
但在要求评价国会、总统及美国大企业表现的民意测验中，这样的好心情就不见了。皮尤研究中心(Pew Research)今年10月进行的一项调查显示，美国公众对那些拿著高薪的企业高管今年的工作业绩评价不佳，对国会议员们大手大脚花钱及相互间的利益交换更是恼火，而白宫在制止这一现象方面没有采取过任何有效措施也令公众不满。没有迹象显示美国政府对它在财政支出上寅吃卯粮一事有足够的重视。立法机构和行政机构的这类出格表现正使共和党自毁前程，该党理应为这些挥霍行为负主要责任。
值得注意的是，就在美国社会出现从未有过的繁荣兴旺景象之际，美国人对那些在社会和经济生活中扮演如此重要角色的大机构却如此的悲观。当然，不同时间所做的民意测验其结果也会有很大不同，但这些民意测验反映出了一以贯之的长期趋势，人们感觉到机构越大越糟糕。所幸的是，层出不穷的新生企业给美国经济带来了活力，如果美国企业也像欧洲许多公司那样与外界压力隔绝，那美国经济就不会有这样的活力。
另一个大机构──联合国今年也遭遇了尴尬，保罗?沃克(Paul Volcker)的报告公布了联合国“石油换食品计划”丑闻的细节。联合国大力宣扬“全球变暖说”实际上是要向工业化国家征收重税，这种手法2005年终于失败。英国首相布莱尔(Tony Blair)驱散了联合国散布的这层环境烟幕，他说人们无法为通过征收新税来遏制全球经济增长找到过硬的科学依据。虽然欧洲国家只是在口头上支持《京都议定书》，而美国则乾脆对其不予理睬，但最终能有一位欧洲领导人把话说得如此明了，这可真是件好事。
这不是说大自然不会报复人类，过去一年她在这方面可谓大展身手。卡特里娜飓风使美国新奥尔良和墨西哥湾沿岸地区遭到蹂躏；去年底的海啸使印尼和泰国等地一片汪洋；地震给巴基斯坦北部和阿富汗造成了惨重损失。具有讽刺意味的是，能够向海外受难者提供最有效救援的美国军队却由于十九世纪通过的那部《民兵法》而无法向国内灾民实施救援，这部法律旨在防止联邦政府在国内使用军事力量。美国政府其他部门在卡特里娜飓风过后的救灾表现实在乏善可陈。
美军在其本职工作方面也表现出色，它为在伊拉克和阿富汗进行的一系列自由选举提供了安全保障。这两个国家的国家机构建设工作过去一年中取得了进步。两国都举行了议会选举，它们都在抓紧建设自己的安全部队以维护社会秩序、打击极端分子。
当然，这些极端分子对美国国家安全构成的威胁2005年并未完全消除，2006年也做不到。美国在中东地区的军事存在已使当地民情发生了转变，人口开始对狂热主义持反对态度，保证伊拉克目前的发展进程不半途而废对于避免上述局面出现逆转至关重要。但在伊朗和叙利亚问题得到解决之前，真正的和平还不会降临中东大地。
过去一年，美、日安保条约得到了强化，因为日本已经形成了一种政治意愿，即在政治方面要扮演一个与其经济实力相当的角色，而该国对中国军事现代化的担心当然也是原因之一。在12月的吉隆坡东亚峰会上，中国打算在东南亚地区获得更大政治影响力的努力颇显得虎头蛇尾。只要中国仍是一个集权国家，亚洲国家对中国疑虑就不会打消。
美、欧关系有所好转。德国总理施罗德(Gerhard Schroeder)下台了，他因此后接受了莫斯科一财团提供的工作而招致非议。法国总统希拉克(Jacques Chirac)的支持率已降至接近零点。希拉克保护法国富裕农民的立场仍是多哈回合自由贸易谈判取得成功的一个严重障碍，不过这一谈判仍有希望达成协议。
总而言之，2005年还是不错的一年。
