China Edging Out US For Leadership Role In APEC
BUSAN, South Korea (AP)--It's bigger, faster and ready to throw its weight around.
When China joined the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum 14 years ago, it was the lone communist behemoth among a field of nimble market economies. Today, it's a leading actor in a forum that represents about 60% of the global economy and nearly half of world trade.
Analysts say China has virtually edged out the United States as the dominant economic and political force among the 21 Pacific Rim economies gathering this week in the South Korean port city of Busan for their leaders' annual summit.
"When APEC was created, the United States was certainly the leading country in the mix," says Greg Mastel, chief international trade adviser for the Washington law firm Miller & Chevalier. But China's blistering economic growth and the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks in the United States changed that, distracting Washington from Asian trade objectives and allowing China to play an increasingly pivotal role, Mastel said.
"China is now at least as powerful a force in Asia and within APEC as is the United States," he said.
APEC includes the United States, Japan, China, Canada, South Korea, Mexico and Australia - seven of the world's 13 largest economies - as well as Russia and a clutch of Southeast Asian, South Pacific and Latin American countries.
The group represents about 2.6 billion people, more than a third of the global population. About one half of them are in China.
"China was an important player in APEC from the beginning, but its growing wealth has made it a more important player than ever," said William Bodde, former executive director of APEC. "APEC membership enhances China's role as a regional leader and player on the world stage. I would expect China's influence to grow in the years ahead."
China is the largest export market for the 10-nation Association of Southeast Asian Nations, six of whom are APEC members. While Singapore, the Philippines, Indonesia and other regional economies once focused on the United States for trade opportunities, they now look closer to home.
Bilateral trade between China and ASEAN rose 25% to $59.8 billion in the first half of 2005 and ASEAN is now China's fifth-largest export market and fourth-largest trading partner. ASEAN's trade with the United States, valued at $136 billion in 2004, has also been rising, but more slowly.
The shift, some say, has as much to do with Washington's failures as Beijing's successes.
"There was considerable disenchantment among the Asians who felt that they didn't get the financial help from the U.S. they thought they should during the 1997 Asian financial crisis," Bodde said. "The U.S. decision to negotiate a patchwork of free trade agreements in Asia and elsewhere has further weakened the APEC free trade goals."
APEC's Latin American members also seek to hitch a ride on China's rising economic star.
While in South Korea this week, Chilean President Ricardo Lagos is expected to sign a free trade pact with Chinese President Hu Jintao - China's first with a Latin American country.
Trade between Chile and China reached $6 billion in 2004, including massive copper sales to China.
APEC, launched in 1989, aims to establish free trade among its members by 2020. Its scope has expanded to issues like corruption, terrorism and public health, all of which affect trade and growth.
China's influence in non-economic issues has blossomed since it became a member in 1991.
Among other issues, APEC leaders are expected to endorse international efforts to end North Korea's nuclear programs, in which China and Washington are both key players. China is also crucial to efforts to fight bird flu.
Nine outbreaks of bird flu in Chinese poultry over the past month and fears migratory birds are spreading the H5N1 virus across borders has reinforced the need for cooperation between Beijing and other APEC members. Though no cases of bird flu in humans have been confirmed in China, dozens have died elsewhere in Asia, and the government said it is a matter of time before a human case occurs on the mainland.
China might snub Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, who last month visited the Yasakuni shrine, which honors Japan's war dead. South Korea and China were outraged, and China has refused to agree to a bilateral meeting on APEC's sidelines between Hu and Koizumi, despite Japanese requests.
"Japan is always viewed positively and favorably by the U.S.," says Chung Jae Ho, professor in the department of international relations at Seoul National University. "But many in South Korea believe the rise of China is more acceptable than the rise of Japan." 中国在 APEC 的领导作用正超过美国
中国经济的高速发展和实力的不断增长使其影响力日益增强。
当中国 14 年前加入亚太经济合作组织 (Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation, 简称 APEC) 时，它是其中唯一的社会主义国家。而现在，在这个成员国经济占全球经济的 60% 、贸易额占全球近一半的组织中，中国发挥著举足轻重的作用。
分析师称，中国几乎已经超过美国，成为本周在韩国釜山举行的 APEC 领导人年会上占主导地位的经济和政治力量。
华盛顿律师事务所 Miller & Chevalier 的首席国际贸易顾问格雷格?马斯泰尔 (Greg Mastel) 说，想当初 APEC 成立时，美国在其中的地位绝对是首屈一指。但中国经济的高速增长和 2001 年的 911 事件改变了这一切，降低了美国在亚洲贸易中的重要性，使中国发挥的作用不断加大。
他说，中国现在在亚洲和 APEC 中的影响力至少同美国一样大。
APEC 包括美国、日本、中国、加拿大、韩国、墨西哥和澳大利亚──世界十三个最大的经济体中的七个──以及俄罗斯和一些东南亚、南太平洋及拉丁美洲国家和地区。
APEC 成员国的总人口约为 26 亿，超过全球人口的三分之一。其中大约一半是中国人。
APEC 前执行董事威廉姆?博德 (William Bodde) 说：“中国从一开始就是 APEC 重要的一员，但其国力的增强使其比以往更加重要。中国成为 APEC 的成员提高了其作为地区领导者以及在全球舞台上的作用。我预计今后几年里中国的影响力将不断增大。”
中国是东南亚国家联盟 (Association of Southeast Asian Nations, 简称：东盟 )10 国最大的出口市场，东盟中有六个国家是 APEC 的成员国。尽管新加坡、菲律宾、印度尼西亚和其他亚洲经济体一度非常重视同美国的贸易关系，但它们现在的注意力已经转向了家门口。
中国同东盟的双边贸易额在 2005 年上半年增长了 25% ，达到 598 亿美元，东盟目前是中国的第五大出口市场和第四大贸易伙伴。 2004 年东盟同美国的贸易额为 1,360 亿美元，尽管也在增长，但增速非常缓慢。
一些人表示，这种变化同美国的失败和中国的成功都密不可分。
博德说，亚洲国家对没有获得美国的财政援助反响强烈，他们认为在 1997 年亚洲金融危机期间，美国应该提供帮助。美国决定就亚洲和其他地区的自由贸易协定展开谈判也进一步削弱了 APEC 自由贸易的目标。
APEC 的拉丁美洲成员国也希望搭上中国经济高速增长的快车。
预计智利总统里卡多?拉戈斯 (Ricardo Lagos) 本周将在韩国同中国国家主席胡锦涛签署自由贸易协定──这将是中国同拉丁美洲国家的第一个自由贸易协定。
智利和中国 2004 年的双边贸易额为 60 亿美元，其中包括向中国出口了大量的铜。
APEC 于 1989 年成立，其目标是 2020 年前在其成员国之间实现自由贸易。该组织关注的目标范围已经扩展到腐败、反恐和公共健康方面，所有这些问题都会影响到贸易和增长。
自 1991 年成为 APEC 的成员国之后，中国在经济之外的其它问题上的影响力也与日俱增。
预计 APEC 领导人还将讨论结束朝鲜核武器项目的问题，中国和美国都在其中扮演著重要角色。同时中国在对抗禽流感疫情方面也发挥著举足轻重的作用。
过去一个月中，中国爆发了 9 起禽流感疫情，对候鸟可能在不同国家传播 H5N1 型禽流感病毒的恐惧已经增强了中国和其他 APEC 成员国进行合作的紧迫性。尽管中国尚未证实有人感染禽流感的病例，但在亚洲其他地区已经有数十人因感染禽流感死亡，中国政府表示，大陆出现人感染禽流感的病例也只是时间问题。
中国可能还将冷落日本首相小泉纯一郎 (Junichiro Koizumi) ，他在上月参拜了供奉日本战犯的靖国神社。韩国和中国对此深感不满。中国已经拒绝在 APEC 会议期间举行胡锦涛同小泉纯一郎的双边会谈，尽管日方提出了请求。
汉城国立大学 (Seoul National University) 国际关系系的教授 Chung Jae Ho 说，美国一直将日本视为积极可靠的力量，但许多韩国人认为，中国的崛起比日本的崛起更容易接受。
