A market mission marred by mishandling
At the end of 1999, when Vladimir Putin was still Russia's prime minister, he set up a think-tank to draw up a 10-year blueprint for economic policy. It was headed by German Gref, a lawyer, whom Mr Putin knew from his days in the St Petersburg administration, and included a “dream team” of reform-minded economists. Its plan, published six months later, was hailed as the most market-oriented programme for Russia since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991.
The goals were ambitious: cutting state intervention in the economy, minimising red tape, lowering the tax burden and boosting private business. Natural monopolies in electricity, gas and railways were to be reorganised. There were measures to improve property rights and corporate governance. Social benefits were to become more targeted, to narrow the gap between rich and poor. In a sign of his commitment to the plan, Mr Putin brought Mr Gref into government as economy minister where he remains.
Five years on, the record is broadly positive. Economic growth, helped by high oil and gas prices, has beaten the average 5 per cent annual rate envisaged in the plan, putting Russia among the world's fastest growing economies although inflation last year exceeded the 10 per cent target. A centrepiece of the plan, moving to a flat rate of income tax of 13 per cent, has been implemented with success, helping restore public finances.
But changes to social welfare, replacing in-kind benefits such as free bus passes with direct payments to pensioners, were mishandled. As a result, the government's commitment to the next stage, phasing out subsidies on housing, is in question. Electricity reform has been protracted while Gazprom, the gas monopoly, is set to remain a state-controlled monolith, strengthened by its merger with Rosneft, the oil producer.
Where Russia remains particularly weak is in promoting small and medium-sized enterprises. According to Opora, a small-business lobby group, in the 10 years to 2004 the number of SMEs increased by only 100,000 to reach 950,000, accounting for 13 per cent of gross domestic product compared with more than 50 per cent in many western economies. The true number may be higher, since many businesses try to avoid cumbersome registration procedures.
Small businesses still face a jumble of requirements to get licences, register with multiple state agencies and submit to inspections all providing opportunities for officials to demand kickbacks. Measures to stimulate smaller businesses and high technology, and to cut bureaucracy and corruption, could be set back if the Kremlin focuses on supporting national industrial champions.
Mr Gref, in a recent interview with the Financial Times, insisted his reform agenda was intact. Legislation on the way, including competition and state-aid rules and the planned privatisation of 1,500 more enterprises this year among them Svyazinvest, the telecommunications holding company would dispel any doubts about the commitment to continuing reform, he said.
“ I'm convinced that we can only have a successful economic policy by providing maximum economic freedom to citizens. Any other policy is doomed to failure,” Mr Gref added. “And I wouldn't have the strength, or the motivation, to carry out a policy that I knew was doomed to failure.” 俄罗斯“梦之队”的经改
1999 年末，当弗拉基米尔?普京 (Vladimir Putin) 还在担任俄罗斯总理时，他就成立了一个智囊团，意在拟订一份为期十年的经济政策蓝图。该智囊团由格尔曼?格列夫 (German Gref) 领导，包括一个由具有改革思想的经济学家组成的“梦之队”。格列夫是一名律师，普京任职于圣彼得堡市政厅时就和他认识。 6 个月后，该智囊团所拟的计划一经出版，便受到了广泛称赞，被认为是 1991 年苏联解体后，最为注重市场导向的计划。
该计划雄心勃勃：削减国家对经济的干预，最大程度简化官方缛节，降低税负，促进私有企业发展，重组电力、天然气及铁路等处于自然垄断状态的行业；并采取各种方式提升财产权以及改善公司治理；进一步明确社会福利工作目标，缩小贫富差距。为表示执行该计划的决心，普京先生请格列夫先生留任国家经济部长一职。
5 年来，各个领域表现颇为乐观。在石油和天然气价格攀升的影响下，经济增长率已经突破原计划 5% 的年平均增长率。尽管通胀率在去年超过了 10% 的预期目标，但俄罗斯还是跻身全球经济增长最快国家之列。该计划的中心目标，即实现 13% 统一所得税也得到了有力执行，这对俄罗斯公共财政的恢复非常有利。
然而，社会福利方面的改革却执行不力，比如在养老金支付上，以直接付款形式替代免费车票等实物福利。这样，政府的下一步方案――取消住房补贴就很难展开。由于俄罗斯决定保留对天然气工业股份公司 (Gazprom) 的国家控制权，电力改革也因此而被延迟。此外，作为天然气垄断巨头， Gazprom 与俄罗斯国营石油公司 (Rosneft) 的合并更加固了其国有大型企业的性质。
俄罗斯一向薄弱的环节，是如何促进中小型企业发展。中小企业公会 (Opora) 是俄罗斯一家专门为小型企业游说的组织。根据其一项调查，从 1994 到 2004 的 10 年里，中小型企业只增加了 10 万家，总数达到 95 万，占国内生产总值 (GDP) 的 13% ，而在很多西方国家经济体中，这个数字要超过 50% 。俄罗斯中小型企业的实际数量可能比该调查多，因为很多企业都极力逃避繁琐的注册程序。
小型企业在注册营业、多重国家机构备案以及接受检查时仍要面对种种复杂程序的要求。而这些程序给官员提供了大量索要回扣以饱私欲的机会。如果俄罗斯政府仍把工作重点放在扶持国家工业巨头上，那么刺激小型企业和高科技产业发展，打击官僚和腐败的措施就会搁浅。
格列夫先生最近一次接受《金融时报》采访时坚称，其改革议程无懈可击。一些相关法规，其中包括竞争和国家援助法，都在制定过程中；而且今年还要完成包括电信控股公司 Svyazinvest 在内的 1500 家企业的私有化改革。这一切都可以打消对进一步改革所持的怀疑态度，他说。
“我确信只有给国民最大的经济自由度，才可以制定出成功的经济政策。其它任何政策都注定会失败，” 格列夫先生补充说。“我没有那种实力，或动力去执行一个我知道注定会失败的政策。”
