As Mood Turns Bleak on Street, It's Time to Buy
With the Nasdaq below 2000 and the Dow Industrial Average threatening to drop below 10000, it's time to think about buying stocks.
Buying? I can almost hear an incredulous chorus. Oil has soared above $55 a barrel, the insurance scandal is burgeoning, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan is fretting about inflation, interest rates have spiked, and if that weren't bad enough, the pope died. The mood on Wall Street is bleak.
And that's exactly why this may be shaping up as a good time to buy -- no matter where stocks go in the short term.
As regular readers of this column know, I follow a disciplined approach to buying and selling stocks that doesn't attempt to predict where the market is headed next. It simply looks at where it has been. I buy at intervals of 10% declines in the Nasdaq Stock Market and sell after 25% gains, based on the simple fact that average declines during bear markets have been about 20% and average gains are 50%.
I just split the difference. My goal is simple: to buy when stocks are lower, and sell when they are higher. Right now, stocks are lower. I never try to call a market top or bottom, which in my view is a fruitless effort.
What we do know with certainty is what the market has done in the past. The current bull market began in October 2002 (shortly after I issued another buy signal).
If the current decline continues, and it turns out that another bear market has begun, then it began in late December, when the Nasdaq hit its most recent peak of 2178. A 10% decline would bring the Nasdaq to 1960 and my next buying threshold. It wouldn't shock me if this turns out to be the start of a bear market, because the bull market is now 2? years old, which means it's getting long in the tooth. If so, the market might drop another 10%, which would be another buying point.
Of course, very few periods in market history are strictly average, which is why I buy and sell at smaller intervals than the historic norms. The current pullback may already have run its course, in which case we can all sit back and enjoy the ensuing gains. But temporary slumps can be interesting opportunities.
So if the Nasdaq drops below 1960, what to buy? Not oil stocks, the current market darlings. Goldman Sachs's recent pronouncement that oil could hit $105 a barrel reminds me of former Merrill Lynch Internet analyst Henry Blodgett's famously bullish bubble-era prediction for Amazon.com. Remember that Mr. Blodgett was right in the short term -- but such wild-eyed optimism was still a signal of a market top in the offing. Someday oil prices are going to drop. In my view, ChevronTexaco is buying Unocal near the top of the market.
Nor would I buy American International Group. For reasons I find inexplicable, Wall Street has been beating the drums for AIG, even as new and more worrisome details emerge from the investigation.
For investors who think the worst is over, check out the chart for Fannie Mae, a somewhat analogous catastrophe. Postscandal, Fannie hit $75 in October (when I urged readers to sell), and is now at $50 and still dropping. In any event, why buy damaged goods when top-quality companies are on sale?
As I said last week, when I was engaging in some sector rotation, I sold financial stocks and put the proceeds into defensive consumer staples. I bought a consumer-staples sector Spider, which is an exchange-traded fund. Companies I like include some illustrious names that have been beaten down, such as Wal-Mart Stores and Coca-Cola. I also like Procter & Gamble's acquisition of Gillette and was impressed with last week's earnings from drug chain Walgreen. (I don't own any of these stocks, but do own some call options on Wal-Mart shares.)
Pharmaceuticals and biotechnology companies continue to look attractive at these distressed levels. There are ample mutual-fund and ETF choices in the sector, but a name I often hear recommended on Wall Street is Johnson & Johnson, which has a large consumer segment in addition to its patented pharmaceuticals. (It's also one of the few drug stocks I own, having moved most of my money in the sector into ETFs and mutual funds.)
These names might sound too tame for some of you. But bear in mind that we're entering what may well be the late stage of the economic cycle. We know for a certainty that we're not at the beginning. And that's the time to get stodgy.
买进的时机到了！
那斯达克综合指数已经跌破2000点、道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数也在向10,000点之下逼近，是时候买进股票了。
买进？我几乎都能听到人们异口同声发出这样的疑问。油价上涨到了每桶55美元以上、保险丑闻层出不穷、美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)主席格林斯潘对通货膨胀忧心忡忡、利率已经上调，如果你觉得坏消息还不够多的话，这里还有一条：教皇去世了。华尔街一片凄风惨雨。
正是这些因素综合起来构成了买进的良机，而无论短期内股市的走势如何。
经常阅读我的文章的人都知道，我遵循一定的买进卖出规则，从来不去猜测市场下一步的走势，我要做的仅仅是看看股票的涨跌，在那斯达克股票市场下跌10%时买进，当上涨25%时就卖出。我的依据很简单，熊市的平均跌幅在20%左右、平均涨幅则为50%。
我的目标很简单：逢低买进、逢高减磅。而目前股市就处在较低的位置。我从来不会试图去定义一个市场是见底还是见顶，在我看来，这只会徒劳无功。
我们能十分确定的就是股市以往的走势，目前的牛市始于2002年10月（在我发出另一个买进信号后不久）。
如果目前的跌势持续下去，而且人们发现另一个熊市已然开始，那么这个熊市确切的起始时间就应该是去年12月底，当时那斯达克综合指数上探至近期的高点2178点。在此基础上下跌10%就是1960点，我的下一个买进点。如果熊市真的已经从那时开始，我一点也不觉得惊讶。因为目前的牛市已经持续了两年半的时间，这意味著它已经进入了垂暮之年。这样的话，股市还会继续下跌10%，到达我的另一个买进点。
当然，市场以往很少有哪个时期的涨跌正好达到平均水平，这也是我买卖股票的时间间隔较历史平均水平短的原因。如果目前的回调已经完成，在这种情况下，我们就可以坐下来安心享受战果了。不过即使是暂时的下挫也能带来有趣的买卖良机
因此，如果那斯达克综合指数跌至1960点以下，我们该买进哪些股票呢？不是目前的市场宠儿：石油类股。高盛(Goldman Sachs)近来宣称油价将上探至每桶105美元，这让我想起美林(Merrill Lynch)前互联网分析师布勒吉特(Henry Blodgett)有关泡沫时期亚马逊公司(Amazon.com Inc.)的一段著名预言。总有一天油价会回落。在我看来，雪佛龙德士古(ChevronTexaco Corp.)是在市场接近最高点时买下加州联合石油公司(UNOCAL Corp.)的。
我也不会购买美国国际集团(American International Group Inc., 简称AIG)的股票，出于某种无法说清的原因，华尔街一直在为AIG摇旗助阵，即便是调查发现了有关AIG一些新的、令人担忧的细节。
要是你认为股市最糟糕时期已经过去，看看联邦国民抵押贷款协会(Fannie Mae, 简称：房利美)的股价走势图吧，它简直就是一场灾难。在丑闻过后，房利美去年10月的股价为75美元（我当时敦促投资者立即抛售该股），如今它的股价只有50美元，并且还在不断下滑。不管怎样，当一些高质量公司待价而沽的时候，为什么还去购买它们受损的产品呢？
我最近对投资组合的一些类股进行了调整，我将金融类股悉数抛出，转而投向防守性的消费必需品类股。我购买了一只投资消费必需品类股的标准普尔500指数交易基金。我比较看好的股票包括像沃尔玛连锁公司(Wal-Mart Stores Inc.)、可口可乐公司(Coca-Cola Co.)等一些著名的公司。我还看好宝洁公司(Procter & Gamble Co., 又名:宝硷公司)收购吉列公司(Gillette Co.)的交易，上周药店连锁店Walgreen公布的业绩报告也让我印象深刻。（我不持有上述提到的任何一只股票，但持有一些沃尔玛股票的看涨期权。）
制药和生物科技类股在目前低迷市况下依然具有吸引力。有大量共同基金和上市交易基金(ETF)投资这一类股。不过，华尔街常常推荐的一家公司是：强生公司(Johnson & Johnson)，它除了生产专利药品外还大量涉足消费品领域。（它也是我持有的少数几只制药类股中的一只，我已经将制药类股中的多数资金转移到共同基金和ETF中）。
有人可能会觉得这些股票过于平庸，但是记住，我们现在正在进入经济发展周期的后期阶段，有一点很清楚，我们不是处在发展的初期。现在是购买一些平庸股票的时候了。
