A more attractive exchange rate
The need for an adjustment of global exchange rates is obvious. The question is how to do this without throwing the world economy into a crisis. Given that for political and economic reasons one cannot expect much transatlantic co-operation to stabilise the euro-dollar exchange rate, Europeans should focus on the euro-yen exchange rate instead. The US current account is running at an unprecedented deficit, financed by Europe, Japan, China and east Asia. US households do not save enough and in Europe and Japan they save too much. What can be done to remedy this imbalance? An obvious start is for American households to spend less and save more. Yet this is unlikely to happen as long as stock exchange gains contribute more to household wealth than saving income. Furthermore, lower demand from the US will reduce Europe’s exports, which have been fuelling moderate growth in the eurozone. Less demand from the US requires more demand in Europe. Another approach is a devaluation of the US dollar against its big trading partners. It has been estimated that the dollar has to weaken by 20 per cent against a trade-weighted currency basket but may overshoot and depreciate by 40 per cent. But despite dramatic changes in the euro-dollar rate, the effective exchange rate has only depreciated by 5 per cent in nominal terms and by 2.1 per cent in consumer price terms, but it appreciated by 3.4 per cent in producer price terms during 2004. In this basket we find many currencies that are pegged to the dollar. The burden of adjustment is therefore on currencies with flexible exchange rates, such as the euro and the yen. These would have to strengthen to levels where growth would collapse. US authorities have homed in on China and demanded “more flexibility” in its exchange rate management. But floating the Chinese currency today could create a new Asian crisis. China’s success is based on its integration into the world economy via a stable and undervalued exchange rate. A similar strategy supported the European and Japanese miracles after the second world war, and east Asia more recently. “More flexibility” for the Chinese exchange rate would undermine growth and development, just as it did for Europe after the demise of the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate system. The focus on the dollar exchange rate ignores the fact that, while Europe accounts for 25 percent of China’s exports and 10 per cent of its imports, the US makes up only one-fifth of its exports and 8 per cent of its imports. So why the fuss about the Chinese dollar peg? Most of the emerging economies of south and east Asia are closely linked to the dollar, which provides the monetary standard for regional trade. For most Asian countries intra-regional trade is more important than imports and exports to either the US or the EU. More flexibility in the dollar exchange rate would therefore destabilise trade and development in the region. What to do? The best solution would be greater stability and balance between the US and the eurozone, as their economies dominate international trade and financial markets. This solution requires more international co-operation and responsible macroeconomic policies. Yet Americans lack the will and Europeans the means to design such a coherent policy. Japan and Europe would both suffer from a continuing depreciation of the dollar, and both would be hurt by a new Asian crisis. So Japan and Europe should work together to provide stability to the rest of the world. If the eurozone and Japan stabilised the euro-yen exchange rate, they would remove some of the pressure from dollar deterioration. Monetary co-operation needs to be strengthened. Europe’s finance ministers should give appropriate instructions to the European Central Bank, for they have the authority to define the exchange rate regime under the Maastricht treaty. Because both Europe and Japan have current account surpluses and strong currencies, their central banks could intervene in the foreign exchange market and, by sterilising their interventions, avoid inflationary risks. China could peg to a basket of currencies in which the dollar loses weight and the euro and yen become the main components. This would encourage other Asian countries to follow suit. Eurasia could become a zone of monetary stability that supports global investment, growth and development, while America goes through its economic adjustment. Politically, this option is easier to achieve than better transatlantic co-operation, because China and the rest of Asia can unilaterally peg to the euro and the yen. In choosing a competitive but stable exchange rate, they would have to reinvest their current account surpluses in Europe and Japan, and this would stimulate financial markets in these countries. As wealth increased, Europeans would gain confidence in their economy, save less and reignite growth.The writer is professor of European political economy at the London School of Economics.
如何调整全球汇率
全球汇率调整的必要性显而易见，问题是如何在避免引发世界经济危机的同时实现汇率调整。出于政治和经济原因，人们无法期待大西洋两岸通过密切合作来稳定欧元对美元汇率，相反欧洲国家应关注欧元对日元汇率。
在欧洲、日本、中国和东亚的资金支持下，美国经常帐户出现了史无前例的高额赤字。美国家庭储蓄不足，而欧洲和日本则储蓄过多。
如何才能修复这种不平衡呢？显而易见，首先是让美国家庭减少支出、增加储蓄。然而，只要股票收益为家庭所带来的财富仍高于储蓄收入，这就不可能实现。另外，美国需求减少，欧洲出口就会降低，而出口却是欧元区保持经济适度增长的推动力。美国需求减少，就需要欧洲增加需求。
另一种方法是美元对其主要贸易伙伴国的货币贬值。据估计，美元必须对一篮子贸易加权货币贬值20%，但也可能过度贬值至40%。然而，尽管欧元对美元汇率波动巨大，但2004年，实际汇率按名义价值计仅贬值5%，按消费者价格计为2.1%，而按生产价格计则升值3.4%。我们发现，这一篮子货币中许多都与美元挂钩。因此，调整的负担就落在了实行浮动汇率的货币身上，如欧元和日元。这些货币将不得不升值到一水平，可能会导致经济增长崩溃。
美国有关当局已锁定中国，要求其在汇率管理上“更加灵活。”但是，人民币现在实现自由浮动可能会引发新一轮亚洲危机。中国的成功在于通过稳定并低估的汇率来融入世界经济。二战后，类似的战略协助创造了欧洲和日本的经济奇迹，近来则是东亚。“更加灵活”的人民币汇率将破坏增长与发展，正如布雷顿森林体系的固定汇率制瓦解后对欧洲产生的影响一样。
对美元汇率的关注忽略了这样一个事实，即欧洲市场占中国出口的25%，进口的10%，而美国仅占其出口的20%，进口的8%。因此，为什么要对人民币与美元挂钩大惊小怪呢？南亚和东亚地区的大多数新兴经济体都与美元紧密相连，美元为地区贸易提供了货币标准。就大多数亚洲国家而言，区内贸易比对美国或欧盟的进出口更加重要。所以说，提高对美元汇率的灵活性，将破坏该地区贸易和发展的稳定。
那该如何做呢？最好的解决方法是加强美国和欧元区间的稳定与平衡，因为它们的经济主导着国际贸易和金融市场。这一方案需要更密切的国际合作和更负责任的宏观经济政策。然而，在设计这样一个连贯的政策方面，美国人缺乏意愿，而欧洲人则缺乏手段。
日本和欧洲都将遭受美元持续贬值的打击，也会受到新一轮亚洲危机的损害。因此，日本和欧洲应携手合作为世界其它国家带来稳定。如果欧元区和日本实现了欧元对日元汇率的稳定，美元疲软的压力就会有所消除。货币合作需要得到加强。欧洲国家的财长应向欧洲中央银行（European Central Bank）做出适当的指示，因为根据《马斯特里赫特条约》，他们有权确立汇率机制。由于欧洲和日本都存在经常帐户盈余和货币坚挺的现象，其央行能够干预外汇市场，并通过停止干预来避免通胀风险。
中国可以同一篮子货币挂钩，其中美元的地位将削弱，而欧元和日元成为主要组成部分。这将鼓励其它亚洲国家纷纷效仿。在美国进行自身经济调整时，欧亚大陆可形成一个支持全球投资、增长和发展的货币稳定区。
从政治角度看，这种选择比改善跨大西洋合作更为简便，因为中国和其它亚洲国家可单方面将其货币与欧元和日元挂钩。通过选择既具竞争力又稳定的汇率，它们将不得不把经常帐户盈余重新投入欧洲和日本，而这将促进这些国家的金融市场发育。随着财富的增加，欧洲国家将恢复对经济的信心，减少储蓄，并重新启动经济增长。
作者为伦敦经济学院（London School of Economics）欧洲政治经济学教授。
