Latin Trade Deal Has Chinese Flavor
In trade talks between the U.S. and its Latin American neighbors, the most influential player may be Beijing.
In a sign of China's heft in the politics of global commerce, the debate over the Central American Free Trade Agreement, or Cafta, is going beyond a fight about open markets and turning into an argument about how to counter the Chinese textile juggernaut.
Most U.S. textile makers are worried because they think the treaty, as negotiated, "gives a backdoor entry to China into our market," says Jim Chesnutt , a North Carolina textile executive who is a member of the National Council of Textile Organizations, an influential trade group. That is because it allows Central American garment manufacturers in certain cases to use foreign-made fabric, but still send the finished clothing on to the U.S. duty-free.
The Bush administration, launching a push to get the treaty through Congress, says the deal helps defend U.S. textile makers from Chinese competition. The government's argument: By creating a free-flowing market for clothes in the Americas, it gives garment manufacturers an incentive to stay in this hemisphere, rather than move to Asia where labor, materials and land are cheaper. As long as clothing plants are in this hemisphere, the government argues, they are more likely to use American textiles.
"You have to look at this in the context of global competition," says Chris Padilla, a top U.S. Trade Representative official working to build support for the pact. Rules controlling global trade in textiles expired at the end of last year, permitting China to further ramp up textile production -- and adding significance to Cafta. "China is the 800-pound gorilla in this industry," Mr. Padilla says.
Cafta is designed to bind together six economies -- Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua and the Dominican Republic -- to form the second-largest U.S. export market in Latin America, behind Mexico. The U.S. annually exports $15 billion of goods to Cafta countries and the Bush administration says demand for U.S.-made products, such as pharmaceuticals and construction equipment, will grow as trade barriers fall in the region. Farm exports alone will expand by nearly $1 billion a year, backers say.
Like any attempt these days to expand free trade, Cafta faces major obstacles on Capitol Hill, where fights over parochial issues will complicate efforts to build a majority. For example, American sugar makers are upset with provisions of the agreement that give the Dominican Republic access to the U.S. market. And concerns about workers rights in Central America have the U.S. labor movement girding for a fight.
But overshadowing those issues in public debate on Cafta is the broader question of China. That the country figures at all in consideration of a trade pact between the U.S. and a handful of neighbors in the Western Hemisphere underscores the changing dynamic in world-wide commerce.
The largest U.S. trade deficit with any single country is with China. For November, the deficit stood at $16.6 billion, more than 50% greater than the U.S. trade deficit with the 25-nation European Union. President Bush, while running for re-election as a free trader, vowed to press Beijing on a range of issues including currency manipulation and intellectual-property piracy.
At the height of the 2004 campaign, Mr. Bush's administration signaled a readiness to protect U.S. textile makers from China, by agreeing to consider petitions to curb imports of Chinese products. Since then, though, a U.S. district court judge has temporarily barred the administration from moving forward on the petitions and the international system controlling trade in textiles has expired. Under the 1973 Multifiber Agreement, developed markets, hoping to protect domestic industries, set quotas that limited apparel imports from less-developed markets. But with the elimination of the system, China soon will account for 50% of the world's textiles, more than twice current levels, the World Trade Organization estimates.
To counter that, the Bush administration is trying to sell Cafta as a way to help politically symbolic textile makers affected by an exodus of business to cheap labor markets overseas. Textile lobbyists and executives, joined by industry groups from Turkey, France, Indonesia and elsewhere, are mounting a campaign this week to raise concern in Congress and the administration about China, and to revive the court-stalled safeguard petitions. Regardless of what happens with the petitions, the USTR says the tariff benefits in Cafta give garment makers in Central America an incentive to stay put, just as the end of the quotas may step up Asia's appeal. If the companies moved their operations to China, they wouldn't enjoy the duty-free entry into the U.S. offered by Cafta.
Cafta-country garment companies import $2.3 billion a year in U.S.-made yarn and fabric, compared with $250 million by Chinese makers. "If those sewers move to China...they're not going to buy a whole lot of our yarn and cloth," Mr. Padilla says. That is his sales pitch for Cafta. "The basic argument is: Keep your customers."
Yet many domestic makers of yarn and fabric still mistrust Cafta, in large part because the treaty includes provisions that would allow apparel makers in Central America to incorporate foreign-made material into products destined for duty-free entry into the U.S. Nicaragua, for example, would benefit from a provision allowing local manufacturers to use as much as 100 million square meters of foreign-made cotton and man-made fabric in apparel shipped to the U.S. Critics contend this exception is a loophole that China would use.
Another Cafta provision would allow material produced in Mexico and Canada to be incorporated into duty-free apparel. Skeptics warn that would allow smuggled fabric from China into the production pipeline. They contend customs inspections in those countries, especially Mexico, aren't tough enough.
Administration officials discount the idea that smuggled fabric poses a real problem. They say they don't expect a big influx of foreign-made material from Cafta countries into the U.S, noting that foreign-made fabric accounted for less than 9% of the apparel products shipped to the U.S. duty-free from Cafta countries in the 12 months that ended in November.
USTR officials hope some textile executives will step forward to lobby for Cafta as it is. For now, they show no willingness to change the agreement to address broader industry complaints, setting the stage for a showdown on Capitol Hill. "It is critical to us that Cafta -- or any other agreement -- does not take away existing business from domestic manufacturing," says Augustine Tantillo, top lobbyist for the American Manufacturing Trade Action Coalition, a group fighting Cafta. "We have enormous concerns about loopholes."
拉丁贸易谈判凸显中国影响力
在美国与其拉美邻国就贸易协定进行谈判的时候，对他们影响最大的却可能是中国。
中国在全球贸易格局中的份量在有关中美洲自由贸易协定(Central American Free Trade Agreement, 简称Cafta)的争论中即可见一斑。这场争论已经超出了围绕市场开放进行斗争的范畴，它甚至已经演变为有关如何应对中国在纺织品市场的强大实力的纷争。
北卡罗来纳州纺织业人士、著名贸易组织全美纺织业组织理事会(National Council of Textile Organizations)成员切纳特(Jim Chesnutt)说，美国多数纺织品生产商对此忧心忡忡，用他们在谈判中讲的话来说，他们感到Cafta等于“给中国打开了一扇进入中美洲市场的后门”。
布什政府正在敦促国会批准该协定。布什政府表示，该协定能保护美国纺织品生产商免受中国企业的竞争威胁。它的理由是：通过该协定，可以在美洲建立一个自由流通的服装市场，从而鼓励服装生产商将业务留下来，而不是转往亚洲以利用其劳动力、原材料和土地价格低廉的优势。美国政府相信，只要服装企业留在美洲，他们就很有可能采用当地生产的纺织品原料。
美国贸易代表办公室高级官员、负责该贸易协定游说工作的帕迪拉(Chris Padilla)说，人们必须在全球竞争的大环境下看待这个问题。
Cafta旨在联合中美洲六国哥斯达黎加、危地马拉、洪都拉斯、萨尔瓦多、尼加拉瓜和多米尼加组成仅次于墨西哥的美国第二大出口市场。美国目前每年向中美洲国家出口的商品价值150亿美元，而且布什还说，如果该地区取消贸易壁垒，美国向该地区出口的药品和建筑机械等产品还将进一步增加。支持者们也表示，仅农业机械一项每年就能增加10亿美元。
近来，任何意在扩大自由贸易的努力都遇到了国会方面的阻力，Cafta也不例外。在国会里，有关“扩大”的范围的争论使任何一方都难以获得多数人的同意。Cafta条款允许多米尼加共和国进入美国市场，这让美国蔗糖种植业主非常不安。而对中美洲劳工人权问题的担心又招致美国的劳工组织摩拳擦掌准备阻挠了。
但是，与这些有关Cafta的公开争论相比，更重要的还是影响面更广的有关中国的问题。在美国及其西半球的一帮邻国讨论相互间的贸易协定的时候，中国却扮演了重要角色，这一事实凸显了全球贸易格局正在发生的巨大变化。
在美国的各贸易伙伴中，美国对中国的贸易逆差是最大的。以去年11月为例，美国对华贸易逆差即高达166亿美元，比美国对欧盟25国的贸易逆差还高出50%。布什总统在竞选期间为表现其支持自由贸易的立场，发誓要在包括汇率控制和知识产权保护等一系列问题上向北京方面施压。
在2004年竞选活动达到高潮之际，布什政府表示同意考虑纺织业提出的限制中国产品进口的请求。但此后美国地方法院的一位法官作出了暂时禁止政府对上述请求采取行动的决定，而有关限制纺织品国际贸易的配额制在此期间也宣告终止。
在1973年签署的《多种纤维协定》(Multifiber Agreement)中，发达国家为保护本国工业不受冲击，制定了限制欠发达国家服装进口量的配额制度。但据世界贸易组织(WTO)预计，随著这项制度从去年年底开始取消，中国在全球纺织品出口市场的占有率将有望迅速升至50%，较目前的比例高出一倍以上。
为应对周一趋势，布什政府试图将促成Cafta的通过作为帮助具有政治象征意义的纺织行业的一个途径──这个行业由于大量企业将业务转向海外廉价劳动力市场而深受影响。本周，美国纺织业人士及院外活动家联合来自土耳其、法国、印度尼西亚等地的行业组织发起了一项活动，以向美国国会和政府表达对中国的担心并试图重新启动上述被法院阻止的请求。
不论这一请求接下来会受到怎样的待遇，美国贸易代表表示，Cafta在贸易壁垒上的好处会吸引中美洲服装生产商留下来，这与配额制的终结会提高亚洲纺织品行业的吸引力是同样道理。如果中美洲纺织企业迁到中国，那么它们就享受不到Cafta赋予的向美国出口纺织品时可免关税的待遇。
Cafta参加国每年要从美国进口23亿美元的棉纱和织物，而中国从美国的进口额只有2.5亿美元。帕迪拉在敦促国会批准Cafta时说，如果这些纺织企业都迁往中国，他们就不会向我们采购那么多的棉纱和织物了。
他说，商界的基本信条是要留住老主顾。
然而，美国许多棉纱和织物生产商仍不信任Cafta，这在很大程度上是因为，Cafta的条款允许中美洲服装生产商在输往美国的免税产品中采用外国生产的原料。
比如，协定允许尼加拉瓜服装生产商在出口美国的服装中使用最多1亿平方米的外国产棉布和手工织物。批评人士认为，这种漏洞有可能被中国所利用。
Cafta的其他条款还允许在免税服装的生产中采用墨西哥和加拿大生产的服装原料。对协定持怀疑态度的人士认为，这有可能促使来自中国的走私织物进入生产渠道。他们认为中美洲国家、尤其是墨西哥的海关检查不够严格。
但布什政府的官员认为走私织物不会构成大问题。他们表示，相信不会有大量外国产服装原料通过Cafta参加国进入美国。他们指出，在截至去年11月份的12个月中，在Cafta参加国出口到美国的免税服装中，外国产织物还不足全部服装织物用量的9%。
美国贸易代表办公室官员希望一些纺织业人士加大对Cafta的游说力度。眼下，这些人士还没有表现出修改协议以解决各方人士不满问题、从而为在国会最后摊牌创造条件的意愿。
美国制造业贸易行动联合会(American Manufacturing Trade Action Coalition)是反对通过Cafta的一方。该联合会首席游说活动家奥古斯丁?坦蒂洛(Augustine Tantillo)表示，对我们而言，最重要的是要确保Cafta或其他任何协定都不会让国内制造商丧失掉已有的业务。他说，我们对协定存在的漏洞非常担忧。
