Dollar Dragging More Down With It
The U.S. dollar's slide is having ripple effects far beyond the huge economies of the euro zone and Japan.
From Canada to Poland to South Korea, central banks in recent months have stopped raising interest rates or cut them, at least partly to offset the economic drag caused by an appreciating domestic currency.
"We're seeing almost the world over that central banks are tending to keep rates a lot lower than they would have otherwise," said Douglas Porter , senior economist with the BMO Nesbitt Burns securities firm in Toronto.
The dollar's slide since early 2002 also has raised pressure on some governments to look for ways to stimulate long-term expansion through fiscal measures or structural overhaul, such as deregulation of business. For example, Canada earlier this year provided for accelerated depreciation of computer and networking equipment -- a step aimed at spurring productivity growth, which has lagged behind that of the U.S., its dominant trading partner. In South Korea, where slowing exports have compounded concerns about weak consumer confidence, the government plans to launch a major program of construction projects.
Such policy adjustments are part of a global rebalancing act that economists say is needed to reduce the world's reliance on U.S. consumption, which has propelled global growth but also pushed the U.S. trade deficit to levels widely regarded as unsustainably large. The countries whose currencies are appreciating "have to find ways to expand domestic demand or else their growth is going to drop and world growth is going to drop," said C. Fred Bergsten, director of the Institute for International Economics, a think tank in Washington.
A strengthening currency makes a country's exports less competitive in international markets, resulting in a drag on economic growth at home. It also makes imports less expensive, putting pressure on domestic producers whose goods compete with those from overseas.
But the combination of slower growth and price stability also gives central banks more flexibility to be proactive in helping to balance their nations' economies. Easing interest rates, for example, makes financing cheaper and thus stimulates sectors such as housing construction and capital investment.
Among the biggest gainers since the dollar began sliding in early 2002 have been the currencies of countries that are big producers of primary commodities, such as Canada and Australia. Dollar-denominated global prices for metals and energy have risen sharply in recent years, helped by surging demand from China and India. The stimulative economic policies implemented by many countries after the September 2001 terrrorist attacks in the U.S. also helped drive the commodities rally of the past three years, notes Farid Abolfathi, group managing director for global macroeconomics at the Global Insight economic forecasting firm in Lexington, Mass.
Australia's central bank, after raising interest rates late in 2003 amid concern about an overheated housing market, wound up standing pat throughout 2004.
The dollar's decline does provide some economic benefits for foreign countries. In areas such as Latin America, with heavy dollar-denominated debt, a weak dollar makes it easier for governments and big companies to pay down their obligations. Even in that region, though, there have been signs of concern lately about rising local currencies. The Colombian government, for example, this month decreed controls on short-term portfolio inflows in an effort to curb the appreciation of the peso.
Poland's central bank, which had been raising interest rates through August, has kept them steady since. In announcing its decision to stand pat again this month, the central bank noted that the zloty's recent appreciation will slow inflation in 2005.
Meanwhile, for the euro zone, some economists have argued that the European Central Bank has kept interest rates too high in the face of a strengthening euro and sluggish economic growth. "I think the Europeans ought to be using monetary policy more aggressively than they have," said Barry Eichengreen, an economics professor at the University of California at Berkeley. Many countries, in Europe and elsewhere, are constrained from using fiscal stimulus due to deficit and debt concerns, he noted.
Not all nations have seen their global competitiveness slip amid the dollar's three-year slide. Several Asian countries have used heavy market intervention to limit appreciation of their currencies against the dollar and against China's yuan, which is pegged to the U.S. currency. As a result, some Asian nations have seen their currencies depreciate against an average trade-weighted basket of other currencies, bolstering their export competitiveness.
That has stirred resentment among policy makers elsewhere, who fear their countries will shoulder a disproportionate share of the global rebalancing effort unless China and other Asian nations allow their currencies to appreciate. In a recent speech to a German business group in Berlin, Bank of Canada governor David Dodge noted that while most major industrial countries and many emerging economies operate with flexible exchange rates, concerns that some countries aren't playing by the same "set of rules" could fuel protectionism, harming the global trading system.
美元下跌引起全球连锁反应
美元下跌带来的连锁反应不但影响到欧元区和日本等庞大的经济体，还波及到全球其他许多地方。
从加拿大到波兰再到韩国，这些国家的央行近几个月来纷纷停止了上调利率，甚至开始降息，至少其中部分原因是为了抵消本国货币升值对经济的冲击。
多伦多证券公司BMO Nesbitt Burns的高级经济学家波特(Douglas Porter)说：“我们看到，各国央行目前都倾向于将利率维持在大大低于我们原来设想的水平。”
美元自2002年初以来的跌势还给部分国家的政府增添了其他压力，它们努力通过财政手段和放宽业务监管等结构性改革措施来刺激经济的长期增长目标因此受损。比如，加拿大今年早些时候就决定加快电脑和网络设备的折旧速度，此举旨在提高一直落后于主要贸易伙伴美国的生产率增速。在韩国，出口减缓增加了人们对消费者信心下降的担忧，而政府则准备出台一个庞大的建设项目计划。
这些政策调整是全球经济走向再平衡的一部分，经济学家称，这需要降低对全球对美国消费的依赖。美国的消费推动了全球经济的增长，但却使美国贸易逆差达到了公认的难以为继的地步。美国国际经济研究所(Institute for International Economics)主任伯格斯顿(C. Fred Bergsten)说，货币升值的国家被迫寻找扩大国内需求的途径，否则经济增长率就会下降，进而拖累全球的经济增长率。
本币升值会削弱一国出口产品在国际市场上的竞争力，危害国内经济增长。进口品价格会向相应走低，给那些同国外进口品展开竞争的国内生产商带来更大压力。
但经济增长放缓和价格走稳也使央行有更大的灵活性，可以更为主动地平衡本国的经济。比如，下调利率会降低融资成本，进而刺激房屋建筑和资本投资等行业。
自美元从2002年年初开始下跌以来，加拿大和澳大利亚等主要商品生产国的货币涨幅居前。受中国和印度强劲需求的支撑，美元计价的金属和能源价格近年来大幅上涨。马萨诸塞州经济预测机构Global Insight的全球宏观经济集团董事总经理阿布法齐(Farid Abolfathi)表示，911后许多国家实施的刺激性经济政策也推动了过去3年里商品价格的反弹。
澳大利亚央行2004年没有调整利率。由于担心房屋市场过热，该行曾在2003年下半年提高了利率。
美元的下跌的确令部分国家的经济从中获益。在拉丁美洲各国，由于持有大量美元计价的外债，美元贬值使政府和大公司更容易偿还他们的欠款。但即使在本地区，最近也有部分国家对本币升值表示忧虑。比如，哥伦比亚政府本月就下令控制短期资本的流入，以遏制比索的升值。
波兰央行在8月份之前曾多次加息，但此后一直保持利率稳定。本月再次宣布维持利率不变的决定时，央行称，近期兹罗提的升值将减缓2005年的通货膨胀。
此外，部分经济学家认为，在欧元走强和经济增长低迷的情况下，欧洲央行(European Central Bank)目前维持的利率水平过高。加州大学伯克利分校的经济学教授艾兴格林(Barry Eichengreen)说：“我认为欧洲央行应当采取更积极的货币政策。” 他指出，欧洲和其他地区的许多国家由于担心赤字和债务，都对运用财政刺激政策持谨慎态度。
在美元3年的下跌过程中，并非所有国家的全球竞争力都有所下滑。部分亚洲国家大规模干预市场限制本币兑美元和兑人民币的升势。因此，部分亚洲国家的货币与其他货币的贸易加权一篮子平均价反而有所下跌，出口竞争力因此提高。
这激起了其他国家的不满。他们担心，除非中国等亚洲国家的货币升值，否则他们的国家就将在全球经济的重新调整中承担过大的压力。加拿大央行(Bank of Canada)行长道奇(David Dodge)最近在柏林向德国一个企业团体发表演讲时指出，尽管多数主要的发达国家和众多新兴经济体都实行了灵活的汇率体制，但对部分国家不遵守“同一套规则”的担忧却可能引发保护主义，损害全球贸易体系。
