The Word for 2004: Google, Google, Google
IT'S THAT TIME AGAIN. Time to peer in the rearview mirror of 2004, and the story of the year in Techland can be sufficiently summed up in one word: Google.
There I said it, and I hope to not have to say it again for a while. I don't know about you, but the hyperbole generated by the Internet search engine's initial offering was irrepressible. I can't think of another story so overplayed. Thankfully, I managed to ignore most of the circus, which in our modern 24/7 news cycle seemed to be covered by everybody from the Economist to Oprah. And let us not forget the talent scouts at Playboy magazine, whose exclusive interview with founders Larry and Sergey nearly queered the IPO.
That the entire nation was referring to the wunderkinds from Stanford by their first names was kind of creepy, as if we were all personal friends of the newly minted billionaires. God bless them anyway. Silicon Valley was due for an infusion of fresh geek tycoon blood.
After all, Steve Jobs and Bill Gates are no longer young Turks. They have become so mature that they even sat together at the same dinner table at The Wall Street Journal's digital conference in Carlsbad, Calif., last spring. The truth is, they probably have a lot more in common with each other than with most folks half their net worth.
In fact, Gates and Microsoft have become so middle aged that the software behemoth opted to dole out the mother of all shareholder dividends. Last summer, when the pundits weren't busy ogling Google, the big story was "What will Mister Softee do with its cash horde?" It turned out that Microsoft issued a $3-a-share dividend -- $32.6 billion in all because it has more than 10.8 billion shares outstanding -- which in reality was intended to lift the morale of the troops in Redmond who are no longer enriched by personal stock options. Certainly, the merchants and restaurateurs of Greater Seattle were thrilled as thousands of software engineers primed the economy of Washington State.
You can say one thing about the Google story: It definitely put some air back in the ol' Internet bubble. With its own shares breaking the 200 barrier last year, but now trading in the paltry 180s, Google lifted all inflatable boats, giving the impression that we are reliving 1999 all over again. Even lavish parties with live music returned to San Francisco and parts to the south this year.
Why all the fuss? Answer: The return of the 50-plus price-earnings multiple. Recently, Google was trading at 183.75; Yahoo! at 36.66 and Ask Jeeves (which you could have bought at 2 in 2003) at 25.62. At those prices, each boasted a ludicrous price-earnings ratio, based on its expected next-fiscal-year earnings. For Google, it was 54, for Yahoo!, 73, and for Ask Jeeves, 19 .
Do you know anybody who even visits Ask.com?
And have you looked at Audible lately? The digital-content provider that was nearly left for dead at the beginning of this decade has been trading in the mid-20s, after hovering in single digits in 2003. The former Amazon Commerce Network partner, which once claimed comedian Robin Williams as an insider, has lost more than $55 million over the past three years, but is on track to break into the black when it reports results for 2004.
Can you say "frothy"?
Indeed, Audible has benefited from the explosion of portable digital media devices triggered by the emergence of Apple Computer's wildly popular iPod. While using the original Napster to download music amounted to stealing, legal music services such as Apple's iTunes, Roxio's new Napster or Wal-Mart's download store, gained traction in 2004. Still, neither the demand for, nor supply of, pirated music and movies appears to be abating. Consequently, entertainment companies will continue to suffer huge losses from intellectual property infringement as the lawsuits start to stack up.
Illegal digital downloads didn't start with Napster, but they did become epidemic as a result of it. Music and movie file-sharing is cheap, easy and a violation of copyright law. Napster was snuffed out, but other peer-to-peer networks such as eDonkey, LimeWire and Kazaa remain very popular. In response, the Recording Industry Association of America last year began suing downloaders themselves, with more then 6,000 people getting slapped with suits in 2004.
Of course, no reflection on 2004 would be complete without mentioning Oracle's dramatic takeover of PeopleSoft. While the bid was launched in 2003, many dramatic events occurred last year, ranging from Oracle's successful challenge of the Department of Justice's antitrust ruling to former PeopleSoft CEO Craig Conway's ouster. Oracle was able to surmount every hurdle on its way to finally getting PeopleSoft's board to relent. The surprising capitulation by PeopleSoft set the table for a flurry of activity at the end of the year, including Symantec's buyout of storage software vendor Veritas.
Another deal that emerged before the end of the year was IBM's decision to spin off its personal-computer business to Lenova of China. That Big Blue opted to exit PCs, which it invented, came as little surprise. But the company's creative approach provided a glimpse of what we might expect more of in 2005.
Shortly before the deal was announced, the Gartner Group, a technology research outfit, predicted that three out of seven of the top personal computer makers would leave the market by 2007. So, already, it is one down and only two more to go over the next few years. Had IBM waited any longer, it would have fewer options and probably would have fetched less money for the unit. What was particularly clever about the deal is that it will give IBM a significant beachhead in China, the one place where everyone in Silicon Valley wants to be.
If there was one thing that 2004 will be remembered for, it will be the technology sector's preoccupation with China. Venture capitalists dispatched more partners and plunked down more dollars on Chinese ventures last year than ever before.
The only other country to garner nearly the same amount of fascination and investment was India, with outfits like SAP and Microsoft expanding their presence in the subcontinent in major ways. Doll Capital Management's early backing of 51Job, a Chinese employment Website, gave other venture capitalists reason for optimism that exit strategies in China can work when the company went public last fall.
Closer to home, while Google grabbed the biggest headlines, other technology companies broke through the once-dormant initial offering market.
Salesforce.com, a provider of customer relations management services via the Web, went public in 2004. But not until after chief executive Marc Benioff, a former Oracle sales executive, was reprimanded by the Securities and Exchange Commission for granting an interview with the New York Times during its quiet period.
While the Google IPO didn't trigger a cascade of initial offerings, strong young companies such as Salesforce.com and Shopping.com got their deals done after showing some patience earlier this decade.
In the end, in 2004 the big got bigger and stronger while lesser competitors struggled. The corporate technology wallet continues to focus on those companies that can offer an array of solutions and are safe bets to be around for years to come.
Industry leaders, such as Microsoft, EMC, Dell, Intel, Oracle, SAP, Symantec and IBM, for the most part, gained ground in many business segments last year. There are few signs that they will relent in 2005.
2004关键词：Google, Google, Google
又是一年将尽，回顾整个2004年，科技类股的表现可以用一个词概括：Google。
在这儿我又说了一遍，真不想再说了。我不知道阁下的看法，但互联网搜索引擎Google首次公开募股掀起的滔天巨浪是谁也压不下去的。我想不出还有哪件事比这更轰动了。感谢上帝，我竭尽全力设法略过了大多数连篇累牍的报导。从专业杂志《经济学家》(Economist)到“脱口秀”主持人奥普拉(Oprah)，我们似乎一天24小时、一周7天耳边从不间断地听到Google的消息。也不要忘了《花花公子》(Playboy)杂志天才的采编队伍，他们对Google创始人拉里(Larry)和赛吉(Sergey)的独家专访差点儿毁了Google的IPO。
整个美国都在亲切地称呼这对斯坦福少年天才为拉里和赛吉，而省略他们的姓氏。这听起来未免有点儿令人生厌，好像大家都是这对新生亿万富翁的挚交一样。不过，还是愿上帝保佑他们，矽谷本来就是一个新生科技鬼才和富豪层出不穷的宝地。
毕竟，斯蒂夫?乔布斯(Steve Jobs)和比尔?盖茨(Bill Gates)都已经青春不再。他们彻底成熟了，甚至在《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal)春季举办的数码会议的晚宴上坐到了同一张餐桌前。事实就是，他俩的共同点可能要远远多于那些财产不及他们一半的那些同行之间的共同点。
实际上，盖茨和他的微软(Microsoft)都已经人到中年，微软甚至开始决定发放股息了。在那些大牌分析师们还没有对Google频送秋波时，最轰动的消息就是“软件巨头大笔现金何去何从？”结果是微软派发了每股3美元的特别股息，总额高达326亿美元（因为微软流通股超过108亿股）。微软此举的真实意图是激励员工，因为他们不再能通过股票期权致富了。不过，整个西雅图周边地区的大小商家和餐馆主人也为此欢欣鼓舞，数以千计的软件工程师推动了整个华盛顿州的经济蓬勃发展。
关于Google，有一件事是可以肯定的，那就是它向互联网肥皂泡里又吹了一口气。虽然从200美元以上的天价跌至现在区区180美元左右，Google还是吹起了一个梦幻般美好的肥皂泡，让我们大家觉得好像又回到了1999年。
这场纷扰到底所为何来？答案就是：超过50倍的本益比。几只投资者狂热追捧的股票的近期股价分别是，Google是183.75美元，雅虎(Yahoo!)是36.66美元，2003年只要2美元就能买到Ask Jeeves现在是25.62美元。以这些公司下个财政年度的预期收益来计算，它们的本益比都很可观。以Google为例，它的预期本益比就达到54倍，雅虎更是高达73倍，而Ask Jeeves只有19倍。
