Internet shopping the sequel
Pets.com; Webvan; Boo.com. The road to the online retailing future is littered with the wrecks of internet start-ups once hailed as the pioneers of a retailing revolution.
Yet, four years after the internet bubble burst, online retailing is thriving set to be the fastest-growing area of retailing this Christmas shopping season, as it was last year. ComScore Networks, a research firm, predicts that online sales for November and December excluding travel sales and auction sites will grow 23 to 26 per cent to about $15bn (￡8bn) in the US, still by far the largest market.
For the full year, ComScore forecasts that US internet spending will leap 25 per cent from $52.9bn last year to about $66bn this year, driven by the spread of broadband connections and growing consumer confidence in shopping online. This trend is reflected in other developed markets notably the UK and Japan, where companies show that innovative internet retailing is a global phenomenon.
The shape of e-tail, however, is very different from what was predicted a few years ago. Apart from Amazon and eBay the web's biggest forum for buying and selling, though it is an auction house not a retailer most of the biggest online retailers are not internet start-ups but traditional shop or mail-order groups. Retailers have brought their investment capacity and trusted brand names tobear on internet shopping thus boosting public confidence. Many have integrated online sales into a “multichannel” strategy that may link a website, shops and a mail-order catalogue.
“There was a time when everybody said the internet was going to steal purchases from shops. But the opposite is happening: multichannel retailing is the reality today,” says Darrell Rigby, head of the global retail practice at Bain & Co, the management consultants. “Many classic bricks-and-mortar retailers actually started making money on their online operations long before Amazon did.”
A prime example of the fusion of the online and so-called “offline” retail worlds is Amazon itself. The company has expanded well beyond its roots as a seller of books and CDs, acting as an online mall selling everything from gourmet foods to clothing. Evolving from pure retailer to “retail platform”, it now conducts its online commerce in partnership with bricks-and-mortar retailers such as Target, Nordstrom, Borders and Circuit City.
That blending of online and offline is offering consumers new ways to shop. They may research and order their purchase online, but have it delivered to a nearby shop a service offered by retailers such as Sears Roebuck and Circuit City so as to avoid delivery charges and allow them to see or try it on first. They may see a sofa they like in a brochure they received in the mail from retailers such as Pottery Barn or Crate and Barrel, go and look at it in a shop, mull it over, then order online. Williams Sonoma, the kitchenware chain that is Pottery Barn's parent, is generating much of its new business online.
Recreational Equipment Inc, better known as REI, is another highly integrated multichannel retailer. A member-owned co-operative which sells outdoor gear and clothing and has a heritage as a shop and catalogue retailer it embraced the internet in the mid-1990s, putting internet kiosks in its shops as early as 1997.
It now offers 40,000 products online more than its biggest shop could stock. Direct sales four-fifths online, one-fifth by phone account for 15 per cent of total orders. About 35 per cent of people ordering online will pick up their purchase in one of REI's 76 shops and about one-third of those will buy something else in the shop at the same time, with an average purchase size of $90.
Sally Jewell, REI's chief operating officer, says that in this way the company's website, with 50,000 pages of product information, drives online and in-store sales. “Even our retail customers are frequently coming to our stores with a print-out from our website where they have done some pre-screening. They'll say, ‘I've looked into tents, narrowed it down to three, but now I would like to take a look at them.' ”
Ms Jewell admits that shoppers may research purchases on its website, then use an online price comparison service to buy the product cheaper from a cut-price retailer. “We have to offer a compelling reason to do business with us,” she says, citing REI's 100 per cent satisfaction guarantee as an example of its advantages.
Some of the biggest US retailers are developing integrated operations. JC Penney, the century-old department store chain, saw its internet sales reach $600m last year. It offers 200,000 items that can be delivered to customers' homes or any of its 1,020 shops.
Steve Riordan, a consultant at AT Kearney, says traditional retailers that have not yet embraced the online world face heavy investment and some tough choices. Are they going to run online operations themselves or outsource them? Do they use the same sourcing model from the same factories? Do they have different distribution centres? “There is not yet an emerging best practice,” Mr Riordan says. “Things are sort of at the gawky teenager stage.”
While the US still leads the way, it does not have a monopoly on successful internet retailers. Tesco has the world's biggest online grocery business. It has helped Safeway, the third-largest US supermarket chain, set up its internet operations.
The biggest e-commerce site in Japan is Rakuten, a home-grown online shopping mall that began life in 1997 with just 13 shops. Today, it has more than 10,000, and a share of the e-commerce market three times bigger than second-ranking Yahoo Japan, according to a report by JP Morgan. With retail sales of Y130bn (￡670bn) last year, and Y144.9bn for the first three quarters of this year, it has achieved its success partly by getting small, “mom-and-pop” shops to go online.
Some pure-play internet retailers are also continuing to grow. Yoox.com which sells end-of-season and exclusive goods from designers such as Armani, Prada and Dolce & Gabbana has proved that designer labels will sell online and that European e-tailers can succeed internationally.
It chose to launch in Europe first, close to the designers whose goods it sells, beginning operations in June 2000 as the air was already noisily escaping from the internet bubble. With �36m (￡25m) of projected revenues for its 2004 fiscal year, and having broken even in 2002, Yoox now sells in seven languages to 25 countries in Europe, North America and Japan. Its stylish site which it calls an “e-concept store” enables shoppers to “zoom” in on clothes and see them from different angles, and includes video and music. Like Amazon, it is now selling its e-commerce expertise to others, and from next year is set to run online sales for two as yet unnamed designers. Federico Marchetti, the Italian former investment banker who is Yoox's founder and chief executive, says that anyone selling online does not just have to get the technology and orders right. They also have to provide fun and entertainment. “What we have been trying to do with Yoox is build a very nice customer experience,” he says. “The online retailer always has to be doing something interesting and different.”
Additional reporting by Bettina Wassener in Frankfurt and Michiyo Nakamoto in Tokyo
Tomorrow: the online gaming business
传统零售商反败为胜
网上零售业的发展道路上布满了互联网初创企业的残骸：Pets.com；Webvan；Boo.com。这些企业曾被誉为零售业革命的先驱。
然而，互联网泡沫破灭4年后，网上零售业蓬勃发展，正如去年一样，它有望成为今年圣诞购物季节增速最快的零售领域。调研公司ComScore Networks预测，在美国，除去旅游销售和拍卖网站，11月和12月的网上销售额将增加23%至26%，达到约150亿美元，美国仍是最大的网上市场。
ComScore预测，美国人的互联网全年支出将猛增25%，从去年的529亿美元增至今年的约660亿美元，推动因素为宽带接入普及和消费者对网上购物信心增强。这一趋势在其它发达市场也有呈现，尤其是英国和日本。活跃在这些市场的企业表明，创新的互联网零售是全球现象。
但网上零售的现状与几年前的预测存在很大差异。除了亚马逊(Amazon)和网上最大的买卖集市eBay（尽管它是拍卖行，而不是零售商）之外，多数大型网上零售商并非互联网初创企业，而是传统商店或是邮购集团。它们把自己的投资实力和获得信任的品牌运用到互联网零售领域，增强了公众的信心。许多零售商将网上销售纳入“多渠道”战略，即结合网站、商店和邮购目录。
“有一阵，大家都认为互联网将会抢走商店的生意。但相反的情况正在发生：多渠道零售如今已成为现实，”贝恩管理咨询公司(Bain Co)的全球零售实践主管达雷尔?里格比(Darrell Rigby)说，“事实上，许多传统零售商比亚马逊更早实现网上业务的赢利。”
网上和所谓的“离线”零售世界融合的最好例子是亚马逊本身。该公司最先出售书籍和CD，现已扩展到这一领域以外的广阔天地，成为一个大型网上购物商店，销售从美食到服装的各种商品。亚马逊从单纯的零售商发展成为“零售平台”，目前与多家传统零售商合作经营网上商务，如Target、Nordstrom、Borders和Circuit City。
网上和离线的结合，为消费者提供了新的购物方式。他们可能在网上搜索并定购商品，然而在附近的零售网点取货，如西尔斯百货(Sears Roebuck)和Circuit City商店，以省去送货费用，并可先看到或试用商品。他们也可能收到Pottery Barn和Crate and Barrel等零售商寄来的宣传手册，发现一款喜欢的沙发，去一家商店看看，仔细考虑一番，然后在网上订购。厨房用具连锁店Williams Sonoma是Pottery Barn的母公司，正从网上获得相当大部分的新增业务。
Recreational Equipment Inc更广为人知的名称为REI，是另一家高度整合的多渠道零售商。REI是一家由成员拥有的合作商店，出售户外活动装备和服装，传统上是一家商店和商品目录零售商，但从90年代中期开始采用互联网技术，并且早在1997年就在商店里安装了互联网亭。
目前，该公司在网上提供的商品数量多达4万件，比它最大的零售店的库存量还大。直销占总订单的15%，其中五分之四通过网上销售，五分之一通过电话销售。约35%的网上订购顾客，会在REI的76家商店之一取走购买的商品，其中三分之一会同时在店里买些其它东西，平均购买金额达到90美元。
REI首席运营官萨利?朱厄尔(Sally Jewell)表示，通过这种方式，公司的网站以5万个网页的产品信息，推动着网上和店内销售。“即便是我们的零售消费者，也会经常拿着从网站上打印出的资料光顾我们的商店，他们已经在网上作了很多预先的筛选。他们会说：‘我对帐篷作了些研究，将范围缩小到3种，我现在想看一看这些帐篷。’”
朱厄尔女士承认，购物者可能会在该公司的网站上研究要购买的商品，然后借助网上价格比较服务，从折扣零售商那里购买更便宜的商品。“我们得有令人信服的原因让人和我们做生意，”她说，并指出REI的100%满意度保证，就是其优势之一。
一些最大的美国零售商正在发展一体化运营业务。彭尼百货(JC Penney)是一家具有百年历史的连锁百货商店，去年网上销售额达6亿美元。它提供20万种商品，可以送货到顾客家中，也可以送货到其1020家商店中的任何一家。
科尔尼(AT Kearney)咨询师史蒂夫?里奥丹(Steve Riordan)表示，还没有接受网上世界的传统零售商，将面临巨额投资和一些艰难选择。它们将自己经营网上业务，还是将其外包出去？他们是否运用相同的采购模式，从相同的工厂采购？它们是否有不同的分销中心？“目前还没有确立一套最佳实践，”里奥丹先生说，“目前的情形有点象笨手笨脚的青少年阶段。”
虽然美国仍然领先，但它并没有独占成功的互联网零售商。英国超市特易购(Tesco)拥有全球最大的网上食品销售业务，并帮助美国第三大超市连锁店Safeway建立了互联网业务。
日本最大的电子商务网站是乐天(Rakuten)。乐天是一家在日本土生土长的网上购物中心，1997年开业时仅有13个店面。据JP摩根(JP Morgan)的一份报告，如今乐天已拥有逾1万家店面，电子商务市场份额比排名第二的雅虎日本(Yahoo Japan)大三倍。乐天去年的零售额达1300亿日元，今年前三季度已达1449亿日元，公司的成功应部分归功于帮助众多小本经营的“夫妻老婆店”上网。
一些纯互联网零售商也在继续增长。出售阿玛尼、普拉达和Dolce Gabbana等设计师品牌季末和专卖商品的Yoox.com证明：设计师品牌在网上也可卖得相当好，欧洲电子零售商也可以在国际上获得成功。
2000年6月，Yoox.com选择在靠近设计师的欧洲首先开通，当时互联网泡沫正在轰然破裂之中。公司在2002年已实现盈亏持平。2004财年，公司预计将实现3600万欧元的营业收入。目前Yoox.com以七种语言向欧洲、北美和日本等25个国家销售产品。公司称自己风格入时的网站为“e概念商店”，它能让访问者放大展示的服装，从不同角度观看，还有视频和音乐。与亚马逊一样，Yoox.com正把它的电子商务运作诀窍销售给其它商家。从明年起，它将为两位目前尚未透露姓名的设计师进行网上销售。前意大利投资银行家费德里科?马凯蒂(Federico Marchetti)是Yoox.com的创立者兼首席执行官，他表示，网上销售商并不是只要把技术和订单搞好就行了，他们还要让人觉得好玩，有娱乐。“我们一直努力让Yoox成为客户的美好体验，”他说，“网上零售商必须做些有趣而且别具一格的事情。”
贝蒂纳?瓦桑纳(Bettina Wassener)法兰克福、中本美智代(Michiyo Nakamoto)东京补充报道。
