World trade liberalisation still excludes Africa
In the era of globalisation, international trade has more than tripled. Yet Africa's share of global exports has declined from nearly 5 per cent in 1980 to under 2 per cent today.
It was that glaring disparity that drove ministers at the World Trade Organisation's meeting in Doha, Qatar, in November 2001 to create the Doha Development Agenda, a commitment to reflect the interests of poor countries in the international trading system.
The ministerial declaration emphasised the centrality of agriculture, Africa's most critical sector. It called for substantial reductions in trade-distorting domestic support measures, for a phasing-out of export subsidies and for improved access for developing countries to Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries' markets. Ministers agreed that “special and differential” treatment for developing countries would be an integral part of talks. That spirit was evident not only in the WTO but in other trade negotiations like the Economic Partnership Agreements between Europe and Africa. But it is now three years since Doha and development dimensions have largely been ignored in the negotiations. Even the failure to find consensus in Cancún, Mexico, last year, seems not to have concentrated minds.
The latest package to emerge from the WTO talks in July is lacklustre and leaves Africans in deep doubt. Political leaders, especially in developed countries, have turned their attention to other priorities and left technical experts to deal with the day-to-day negotiations. As in previous rounds, the technical negotiation process has quietly detached itself from the political forces that framed the talks. Progress is piecemeal, with negotiators focusing on the formulae at the expense of more substantive issues. The Economic Commission for Africa has conducted technical studies on the likely impact of a free trade agreement. Regarding agricultural trade, Africa would benefit more from an ambitious package of liberalisation than from the modest steps proposed in the July package. On non-agricultural market access, the July package fails to reflect the special and differential treatment that the Doha Declaration promised to developing countries.
If the WTO talks continue on their present trajectory, they are unlikely to deliver the development benefits promised in Doha. But momentum can be re-injected if political leaders, particularly in the European Union, US and Japan, rediscover the spirit of Doha and intervene in the WTO process. The conclusion of US elections and the nomination of a new European Commission provide an opportunity to get the Doha Round back on course. It is time for big ideas that capture the original spirit of the negotiations.
Take the issue of market access. Despite an array of preferential access agreements, including Washington's African Growth and Opportunity Act and the “Everything but Arms” agreement, African exports still lack free access to OECD markets. Granting unrestricted access would contribute significantly towards expanding the trade and growth potential of African countries, boosting their capacity to reduce poverty. This is a sustainable approach to Africa's development. And research shows that granting unrestricted market access to sub-Saharan African countries would cost OECD countries very little.
Another challenge lies in the Economic Partnership Agreements negotiations between African countries and the EU. Studies on the proposed EPAs suggest that if African countries agree to equivalent reciprocity for commitments by the EU, it will be the EU that gains economically, with Africa suffering significant costs. If the EU were to abandon the idea of symmetry in the final agreements to accept “non-reciprocity”, it would demonstrate a commitment to a new, pro-development approach to trade.
The spirit of the Doha Declaration is clear: Africa should integrate into and benefit from global trade. Africa is committed to trading its way out of poverty, but cannot do so with international trade arrangements stacked against it.
The ECA, along with the African Union, the African Development Bank, the UN Development Programme and other UN partners, is hosting African trade negotiators and experts in Tunis this week to analyse the WTO's July package and develop strategies to re-engage politicians in the Doha process.Strong political commitment and leadership is vital. Otherwise, January's WTO ministerial meeting in Hong Kong risks becoming another Cancún.
The writer is the executive secretary of the UN Economic Commission for Africa and a member of Tony Blair's Commission for Africa
世界贸易自由化仍然把非洲排除在外
国际贸易在全球化的时代增长了3倍不止，然而非洲在全球出口中所占的份额从1980年的5％左右下降到今天的2％不到。
正是这种巨大的落差使得各国部长在2001年11月世界贸易组织(WTO)卡塔尔多哈会议上提出了多哈发展议程，其目的是要反映出贫穷国家在国际贸易体制中的利益。
这一部长级声明强调了农业的核心地位，而它正是非洲的关键产业。声明呼吁实质性减少国内扭曲贸易的支持手段，逐步取消出口补贴，并提高发展中国家对经合组织(OECD)国家的市场准入。部长们同意，对发展中国家的“特殊和差别待遇”将是会谈不可分割的一部分。这一精神不仅清晰地体现在世贸组织中，而且体现于其它贸易谈判，如欧洲和非洲的经济合作协议。但这3年来，多哈精神和发展目标在很大程度上被忽视了。甚至连去年在墨西哥坎昆的失败――各成员国未能达成共识，似乎也没能统一人们的思想。
世贸谈判于7月提出的最新方案也并无新意，而且让非洲人民陷入了深深的疑惑。政治领导人，特别是发达国家的政治领导人，把他们的注意力都转向了其它需要优先考虑的问题，并将日常谈判留交技术专家处理。正如前几个回合意一样，技术谈判进程悄悄地同设计整个会谈的政治力量脱了钩。谈判的进展非常零星，谈判代表把精力集中在了公式上，而牺牲了更实质的问题。非洲经济委员会(ECA)已经对自由贸易协定可能的影响做了技术性研究。在农业贸易方面，比起7月份方案中提出的谨慎措施，一份大胆的自由化方案将使非洲收益更多。而在有关非农业市场的准入问题上，7月份的方案未能体现出多哈声明对发展中国家所承诺的特殊和差别待遇。
如果世贸谈判继续沿着目前的方向前进，那么在多哈会谈上所承诺的发展利益很可能不能实现。但如果政治领导人，尤其是欧盟、美国和日本的政治领导人能重拾多哈精神，并干预世贸进程，还是有可能为会谈重新注入活力的。美国选举的定论以及新的欧洲委员会(EC)成员的任命，为多哈回合重回正轨提供了机会。现在正是提出那些反映谈判最初精神的大胆设想的时刻。
就拿市场准入的问题来说，尽管已经有了一系列优先准入的协定，其中包括华盛顿的《非洲发展和机遇法案》(AGOA)以及“除武器外全部免税”(Everything but Arms)协定，但非洲的出口仍然缺乏对经合组织国家市场的自由准入。授予其不受限制的准入将极大地促进非洲国家贸易和经济增长的潜力，提高其减少贫困的能力。这对非洲的发展来说是一个可持续的解决方案。并且研究显示，对南撒哈拉非洲国家授予自由的市场准入几乎不会给经合组织国家增添任何成本。
在经济合作协议的谈判中，还有一道横在非洲国家和欧盟之间的障碍。对所提议的经济合作协议的研究显示，如果非洲国家同意给欧盟对等的互惠承诺，那么经济上受益的将是欧盟，而非洲则会为此付出沉重的代价。假设欧盟在最终的协定中放弃对等的想法，接受“非互惠”条款，那么它将展现出一种新的、以后发展观理解贸易的承诺。
多哈声明的精神是显而易见的：非洲应当融入并受益于全球贸易。非洲致力于通过贸易消除贫困，但如果国际贸易体制横阻其这么做，它是不可能成功的。
本周，非洲经济委员会连同非洲联盟(AU)、非洲发展银行(ADB)、联合国发展计划(UNDP)以及其它联合国项目组在突尼斯举行会议，由非洲贸易谈判代表和专家对世贸组织7月份提出的方案进行分析，并探讨使政治家重新涉足多哈进程的策略。强有力的政治承诺和领导是关键。否则，明年1月在香港召开的世贸部长级会议有可能成为另一个坎昆。
作者为联合国非洲经济委员会执行秘书及布莱尔政府非洲委员会成员。
