Economic competition continues between German and France
Nicolas Sarkozy, France’s ambitious finance minister, quits his government post later this month to pursue his presidential ambitions - but not before one last chance to crow about France’s superior economic performance compared with Germany .
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Third-quarter eurozone gross domestic product figures, released later this week, are expected to confirm a slowdown in France . But they will also show that France’s annual economic growth rate, buoyed by robust consumer spending, remains on track to beat that of its larger neighbour, still burdened by the costs of unification, for the ninth year in succession.
Still, Mr Sarkozy, who has been finance minister only since April, may be leaving at the right time: economists believe the current economic slowdown may gradually lead to a reversal of fortunes as France’s recovery runs out of steam and Germany reaps the benefits of a wave of corporate restructuring.
France’s recent strength relative to Germany has taken economists and eurozone policymakers aback. One explanation is that French consumers have been more sensitive to the fall in interest rates in recent years and reduced their traditionally high rate of savings, while a strong housing market and a stock market recovery have boosted the wealth effect.
German consumer gloom has worsened in recent years, fuelled by the non- stop debate on structural reform, job cuts and wage freezes. The gloom may have got the better of moderate price pressures which, according to orthodox central bank thinking, should have created the basis for growth to resume.
On top of that Mr Sarkozy has taken measures deliberately designed to boost consumer spending, notably tax breaks and price-cutting deals with retailers. The problem is that few economists think he has really had any effect: “The simple fact is that he has been finance minister for far too short a period to have had a substantial impact,” says Julian Callow at Barclays Capital.
Although 2004’s growth figures are expected to show France ahead, the third quarter numbers could show France roughly level with Germany - at around 0.4 per cent quarter on quarter. Next year France is widely expected to beat Germany again, but beyond 2005, Germany’s economy may begin to accelerate as companies start rehiring and that feeds through into consumer spending.
Thomas Mayer, European economist at Deutsche Bank, adds that the rash of job guarantees secured in recent months by German trade unions, often in return for wage freezes, will result in companies boosting investment in German production facilities.
Together with the extensive cost-cutting, that sets the stage for economic acceleration. By 2006 or 2007, says Mr Mayer, “my feeling is that there will certainly have been a narrowing of the differences between France and Germany “.
Other economists suggest that Germany is also doing more than France to redress the long-term structural rigidities that are impeding faster growth in both economies. Berlin is methodically - if slowly - trying to reform its social security and pensions systems and free up its rigid labour market, while the French government appears to be running out of energy and ideas in the twilight years of President Jacques Chirac’s second term.
A leading French economist says both countries face a similarly urgent need to increase labour utilisation rates and reduce high unemployment levels. But this is more likely to happen in Germany , where there is a more pressing demographic imperative to reform, than in France , where the state in effect subsidises workers to retire early. “ Germany may be in a better position to take advantage of its valuable resources but France has better resources because of its healthier demographics,” he says.
It is not impossible that by 2007 Germany’s economic growth rate will have overtaken that of France - just as Mr Sarkozy is running for the French presidency.
法德经济的较量
雄心勃勃的法国财政部长尼古拉?萨尔科奇(Nicolas Sarkozy)将于本月晚些时候辞去政府职位，去实施他竞选总统的抱负，但在此之前，他不会放弃最后一个机会，来吹嘘法国经济表现优于德国。
第三季度欧元区区内生产总值(GDP)数据将于本周晚些时候公布，预计将证实法国的经济增长放慢。但这些数据也将表明，受到强劲消费支出的支撑，法国的年经济增长率仍有望连续第9年超过其最大的邻国德国。德国仍在为统一带来的成本负担所累。
不过，萨尔科奇先生的离职可能正是时候，尽管他从今年4月才开始担任财长。因为经济学家们相信，目前的经济减速可能会逐渐导致法国的运势逆转，因为法国的经济复苏将渐失动力，而德国将从一波企业重组浪潮中获益。
近期法国经济的表现比德国强劲，这已令经济学家和欧元区政策制定者大吃一惊。一个解释是，法国消费者对近年来的利率下跌更敏感，因此储蓄率降低，而传统上法国人存款较高，同时，房地产市场强劲、股票市场回升也增强了财富效应。
近年来，结构改革、裁员和工资增长冻结等问题引发了无休止的争论，令德国消费者的悲观情绪加重。而这种悲观情绪也盖过了物价压力温和的好处。根据央行的正统见解，物价压力温和原本可以为经济恢复增长提供基础。
此外，萨尔科奇先生已采取了一些专门旨在增加消费支出的措施，尤其是税收优惠措施和与零售商达成的降价协议。问题是，几乎没有哪个经济学家认为，他确实取得了什么成效：“简单的事实是，他担任财政部长的时间实在太短，不足以产生重大影响，”巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)的朱利安?卡洛(Julian Callow)说。
预计2004年的经济增长数据将显示法国领先于德国，但第三季度的数字或许会表明，法国与德国大致处于同一水平――都较上一季度增长了0.4%左右。人们普遍预期，明年法国将再次击败德国，但2005年以后，德国经济可能会开始加速，因为德国公司将开始重新招募员工，而这将为消费支出提供动力。
德意志银行(Deutsche bank)欧洲经济学家托马斯?迈耶(Thomas Mayer)补充说，最近几个月德国工会获得大量职位保证，这将导致企业增加在德国生产设施上的投资。这些职位保证往往是作为工资增长冻结的交换。
再加上广泛的成本削减措施，这些措施都为经济加速奠定了基础。迈耶先生表示，到2006或2007年，“我的感觉是，法国与德国间的差距肯定会缩小”。
其他经济学家提出，在纠正长期结构僵化方面，德国也比法国下了更多功夫。结构僵化正阻碍两个经济体获得更快增长。在试图改革社会保障和养老金体系、并开放僵化的劳动力市场方面，德国政府的动作可能慢些，但有条不紊。而在雅克?希拉克(Jacques Chirac)总统第二任期的最后几年中，法国政府在这些方面似乎已智殚力竭。
法国一位重要的经济学家表示，两个国家都面临相似的迫切需要，即提高劳动利用率，降低高企的失业水平。但德国更有可能采取行动，因为从人口结构来看，德国比法国有更紧迫的改革需求。法国政府实际上对提前退休的工人给予补贴。“在利用其宝贵的资源方面，德国也许处于更有利的位置，但法国有更好的资源，因为它的人口结构更健康，”他说道。
到2007年，德国的经济增长率超过法国并非不可能，因为萨尔科奇先生届时将竞选法国总统。
