Recent Decline in Price of Oil Raises Hopes Crunch Is Easing
Oil prices have tumbled in recent weeks, raising hopes among some experts that the petroleum crunch of 2004 may be running its course, even as they warn that the danger of new surges remains.
After 14 months during which everything that could go wrong for oil consumers did go wrong, a number of things have started going right. Extra oil from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is reaching ports of major consuming nations, where commercial inventories are rising. Iraq is shipping oil at fairly high levels despite repeated sabotage of its pipelines. Production in the Gulf of Mexico gradually is being restored after damage caused by hurricanes.
BUBBLING UP
Compare the recent surge in oil prices with gains in gasoline, heating oil and natural gas. Plus, chart oil's dance around $50.
Yesterday the Paris-based International Energy Agency in its latest monthly report signaled the worst may be over, noting that "barring any major unforeseen developments, oil markets should continue to ease heading into and out of winter."
Still, the price of oil -- while well below historic highs when adjusted for inflation -- remains about 49% above where it stood at the beginning of the year. At current levels, oil could continue to damp economic growth around the world and hurt oil-dependent industries such as airlines, and it remains a burden to consumers dependent on gasoline and heating oil.
In a reminder that oil markets remain volatile, prices jumped yesterday after conflicting data emerged on U.S. inventories. The U.S. Department of Energy said there was a further decline in inventories of distillates, or fuels such as heating oil and diesel. But the American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, released data showing a rise in distillate inventories. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude for December delivery settled at $48.86 a barrel, up $1.49.
The oil market remains vulnerable to price surges for the same reason that has plagued consumers since last year: The global industry has almost no spare capacity to pump extra oil in the event of disasters. The IEA report noted that OPEC is producing near its sustainable capacity. In an industry as large and global as oil, however, mishaps are a regular occurrence. Hurricane Ivan, which ravaged output in the Gulf of Mexico in September, showed how quickly supply can be cut by events beyond anyone's control. The resulting outages sent prices soaring and forced the U.S. government to dip into its emergency stockpiles.
Part of the reason for the market's easing may be bad news: that high oil prices have harmed the global economy, trimming growth rates and the rise in demand for oil. The IEA said early signs have started appearing in the form of downward revisions to estimates of gross-domestic-product growth by many countries.
With supply rising and demand-growth shrinking, speculative investors -- another force in this year's increase -- seem to be retreating from oil markets. "The market's mood has changed," said Deborah White, an analyst for Société Générale in Paris. "We saw massive liquidation" of holdings in oil-futures contracts by hedge funds and other investors last week, she said, adding that some funds were diverting money to equities.
More good news for oil consumers has come in the shape of worst-case scenarios that failed to materialize. A springtime flare-up of terrorism in Saudi Arabia, the largest oil exporter, has abated, at least for now, without harming the kingdom's oil facilities. Oil production in Russia, the world's second-largest exporter, has been unaffected overall by the government's tax dispute with OAO Yukos, a company that accounts for some 2% of global output. Strikes and political violence in Nigeria so far haven't derailed production in that large West African exporter.
Yet many in the industry are braced for aftershocks. "I would be extremely surprised if I don't see a rally" by the end of the year, said Ms. White of Société Générale, and then again in February -- periods when winter demand for oil usually surges.
That is because the industry is producing, transporting and refining practically as much oil as it can. Suppliers are expected to be hard pressed to meet the usual seasonal surge in demand for heating oil, much less any exceptional demand if temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere drop below normal. A serious supply disruption could send prices shooting back up, possibly above the peak of $55.67 a barrel on Oct. 25.
"All bets are off if there is a cold snap, or if there is a disaster in Iraq," said Rick Mueller, an oil analyst at ESAI, a Boston-based consulting company.
Joseph Quinlan, chief market strategist for Banc of America, said in a commentary this week that relief from oil prices won't come until prices fall below $40 a barrel. Global income, he said, is being transferred to oil producers, "a redistribution of wealth that benefits very few" around the world because OPEC accounts for only 3% of global imports and thus doesn't efficiently circulate its petrodollars.
Even without new increases, consumers will feel pain. Heating oil costs in the U.S. Northeast are expected to be 37% higher than a year ago, according to the latest estimate by the Energy Information Administration of the DOE.
油价还能回去吗？
油价近几周来已显著回落，这使一些专家对油价在2004年经历暴涨后正在回归常态抱有了一丝希望，但他们也警告说油价有再度飙升的危险。
在经历了14个月的痛苦后，石油消费者终于否极泰来。石油输出国组织(OPEC, 简称：欧佩克)增产的石油正源源不断地运抵主要石油消费国的港口，后者的商业石油库存也在不断增加。尽管伊拉克的输油管道屡遭破坏，但该国的石油出口量仍然达到了相当高的水平。墨西哥湾地区的石油生产在遭受飓风的破坏后正在逐步恢复。
总部位于巴黎的国际能源署(IEA)昨天在其最新月度报告中指出，除非发生一些无法预料的重大事件，否则油价在冬季前后将会继续下降。
当然，目前的油价经通货膨胀因素调整后虽然仍显著低于历史最高水平，但还是比年初时高了49%左右。目前的油价水平依然会阻碍全球的经济增长，并对航空业等石油依赖型产业造成损害，对于那些汽油和取暖油消费者来说，当前的油价也仍然偏高。
油价昨日的跃升提醒人们，石油市场仍旧处于高度波动之中，此前美国公布了相互矛盾的石油库存数据。美国能源部(Department of Energy)说，取暖油和柴油等馏分油的库存在继续下降，但行业团体美国石油学会(American Petroleum Institute)的数据却显示，馏分油库存出现了上升。在纽约商品交易所，12月交割的轻质低硫原油价格昨日收于每桶48.86美元，上涨了1.49美元。
从去年起就使消费者深受其害的一个因素仍有可能导致油价再度大幅上扬，那就是，全球石油工业已几乎没有富余生产能力来应对突发性灾难事件的发生。IEA的报告指出，欧佩克目前的石油产量已接近其持续稳定生产的极限。但在石油这个规模巨大且全球布局的行业，突发性灾难事件的出现却是家常便饭。今年9月曾导致墨西哥湾地区石油大幅减产的伊万(Ivan)飓风就向人们证明，人力无法控制的事件可以多么快地导致石油供应下降。飓风导致的减产使油价大幅飙升，迫使美国政府不得不动用其战略石油储备。
使得市场心情放松的部分原因可能并不是什么好消息：高昂的油价已经对全球经济造成了损害，导致经济增长率下降，因而也抑制了石油需求的增长。IEA称，从许多国家纷纷下调国内生产总值(GDP)的增长预期看，上述因素已经初露端倪。
鉴于石油供应不断增长而石油需求的增幅却在下降，今年推动油价上涨的另一个因素──市场投机者，似乎正在撤出石油市场。法国兴业银行(Societe Generale)驻巴黎的分析师黛博拉?怀特(Deborah White)说，市场心态已经改变。她说，对冲基金和其他投资者上周大量结清石油期货头寸，一些基金正将投资转向股市。
最坏的情况没有出现，这对石油消费者来说是件好事。虽然世界最大的石油出口国沙特阿拉伯今年春季曾一度发生恐怖袭击事件，但至少目前为止袭击事件造成的影响已经平息，该国的石油生产设施也未受到损害。虽然俄罗斯政府与该国尤科斯石油公司(OAO Yukos)间爆发了税收争端，但这个世界第二大石油出口国的石油生产总的说来并未受到影响，尤科斯公司的石油产量约占世界总产量的2% 。而罢工和政治混乱迄今为止也未显著影响尼日利亚这一西非最大的石油出口国的石油生产。
但许多业内人士仍然心有余悸。法国兴业银行的怀特说，如果油价在年底前不出现回升倒是件怪事了。她认为油价在明年2月还将出现一次上涨，因为届时将是冬季石油需求的高峰期。
人们之所以有这种担忧，是因为石油工业目前实际上已将生产、运输和提炼能力用到了极限。供应商们要应对市场取暖油需求的季节性飙升已有困难，如果北半球冬季的气温低于正常水平，额外增加的石油需求将使供应商们更加难以应付。如果再发生严重的供应中断事件，油价就很有可能迅速反弹，一举超过10月25日创下的每桶55.67美元这一高点。
美国咨询公司ESAI的瑞克?穆勒(Rick Mueller)说，如果突然降温，或是伊拉克发生什么灾难性事件，人们目前对油价的所有乐观预期都将成为泡影。
美国银行(Banc of America)的首席市场策略师约瑟夫?昆蓝(Joseph Quinlan)本周发表评论说，在油价回落至每桶40美元之前，人们是无法对油价问题感到放心的。他说，全球收入正在流向石油生产国，但这一财富再分配的受益面太小，因为欧佩克仅贡献了全球进口额的3%，因此其无法有效地将所获得的石油美元重新循环到世界经济体系中去。
即使油价不再上涨，消费者背负的负担也依然沉重。美国能源部能源情报署(Energy Information Administration)的最新估计显示，美国东北部地区的取暖油成本预计将比一年前上涨37%。
