Yukos destruction tells us: Be afraid
The Yukos case, which has been dragging on stirring up business circles for more than a year, is coming to its conclusion. Last week Russia’s Ministry of Justice announced that it was preparing to sell Yuganskneftegas, the company’s most important subsidiary, which produces 60 per cent of its oil. What are the implications?Until recently there was a negative attitude both in Russia and in the west towards the oligarchs: the businessmen who gained big fortunes with the help of the government in the 1990s and who sought to shape state policy. From the day he took office, President Vladimir Putin declared all oligarchs to be equally distant from state power, in spite of the fact that some of them helped him get elected. Any doubts about the president’s independence evaporated after two media magnates, Vladimir Gusinsky and Boris Berezovsky, were kicked out of the country.Yet at the same time, there has been a growing trend towards transparency and social responsibility among Russia’s businesses. As the first, chaotic phase of capitalist development gave way to a more stable period, there was greater demand for property rights, tax discipline and honest reputations. One of the pioneers of this transition was Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the former chief executive of Yukos, whom the authorities are now prosecuting for fraud and tax evasion.I am not saying that Mr Khodorkovsky was an angel. And I understand that Yukos’ aggressive lobbying in pursuit of its own interests could well have caused irritation in political and business circles. When the authorities’ attack on Yukos began last year, nobody in Russia doubted that the accusations were simply an excuse. We tried to guess whether the real motives were Mr Khodorkovsky’s political ambitions or a wish to redistribute property. In the event, it seems to have been both. I do not want to get into the legal niceties, but the case revolves around the establishment of companies in domestic “offshore zones” - regions within Russia with low tax regimes. Yukos used these companies to lower its tax burden. The charges against Yukos are based on claims that its affiliates did not do any of the things that the tax privileges were meant to encourage companies to do; they merely helped Yukos avoid taxes. I am convinced that, in an independent court, it would probably be impossible to prove these charges. A vast majority of large companies have used these methods of tax optimisation, and all of them, including Yukos, passed inspections by the tax services.Last year, Yukos had a turnover of about $15bn. Profits for the first nine months of 2003, according to US generally accepted accounting principles, were $2.5bn. It is almost impossible to imagine that Yukos could evade $3bn in taxes in one year and still remain one of the largest Russian taxpayers.Nonetheless, the courts confirmed the claims and ordered the company to pay the full sum. When Yukos’ attempt to pay the debt with shares it held in Sibneft, another oil company, was frustrated, the Ministry of Justice announced the plan to sell Yuganskneftegas - for about a tenth of the market price. That will not pay off the tax claim - there will probably be further asset sales. The Russian bureaucracy can celebrate its victory. Its representatives will now say that, in accordance with the will of the people, the oligarchs were tamed. That now - as capital flies the country - everyone will pay their taxes.But it has become clear that the government is above the law; that by leaning on the security services, the prosecutors and the courts it can ruin any company. The Yukos case is not an isolated incident: the operation to destroy Vladimir Gusinsky’s television company in 2001 followed roughly the same pattern. In the provinces, similar operations are carried out by local administrations.But a humiliated and degraded business will not be the engine of Russia’s growth. In a market economy, prosperity is created by bold people and companies, ready to take risks, and not merely be obedient. Russia’s private sector will not be the stronghold that a free, independent and civil society needs. And it is unlikely that bureaucracy can fill this role.Arkady Volsky, president of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, appearing on television on July 21, said: “This is a made-to-order bankruptcy, and I can well imagine ordered it. But I won’t say: I have six nephews and I’m simply afraid.” He is not the only one. I am also afraid. It seems to me that is exactly what is wanted of us.The writer, a professor at Russia’s high school for economics, was Russia’s economy minister 1994-97
尤科斯的毁灭意味着什么？
拖了一年多，在商业界引起骚动的尤科斯(Yukos)一案即将定论。7月20日，俄罗斯司法部宣布，将出售尤科斯的主营业务子公司Yuganskneftegas。该公司所产原油占尤科斯全部产量的60%。这意味着什么呢？
直到不久前，在俄罗斯和西方国家，人们还都是以负面态度看待寡头(oligarchs)，即上世纪90年代在政府帮助下获得巨额财富，并试图影响国家政策的那些商人。自就职之日起，弗拉基米尔?普京(Vladimir Putin)总统就宣布，所有寡头都要同样远离国家权力，全然不顾有些寡头帮他赢得了选举胜利。在弗拉基米尔?古辛斯基(Vladimir Gusinsky)和鲍里斯?别列佐夫斯基(Boris Berezovsky)两个媒体大亨被放逐国外后，人们对总统独立性的任何怀疑都烟消云散了。
与此同时，俄罗斯企业界越来越趋于透明，并开始承担社会责任。随着混乱无序的资本主义初级发展阶段转变到一个更为稳定的阶段，人们对于财产所有权、税收制度以及诚实名声的要求更高了。这场演变的倡导者之一，便是尤科斯前首席执行官米哈伊尔?霍多尔科夫斯基(Mikhail Khodorkovsky)，而他正被政府以欺诈和逃税的罪名起诉。
我并不是说霍多尔科夫斯基先生是个天使。而且我明白，尤科斯为谋求自己的利益积极游说，本来就可能已引起政界和商界的不快。当政府去年开始打击尤科斯时，俄罗斯没有人怀疑那些指控仅仅是借口而已。我们试图猜测霍多尔科夫斯基先生真正的动机是什么，是他有政治野心，还是他希望重新分配财产？结果，看上去似乎两者皆有。我不想陷入法律细节中，但本案主要是围绕在国内的“离岸区域”(俄罗斯境内实行低税收制度的地方）建立公司。尤科斯用这些公司来降低纳税负担。针对尤科斯的指控基于以下主张：尤科斯的子公司只是帮助尤科斯逃税，而对于税收优惠政策旨在鼓励公司做的事，这些公司一件也没做。我相信，如果在一个独立的法庭上，这些指控多半不可能成立。绝大多数大型公司都使用了这些税收优化方法，而所有这些公司，包括尤科斯在内，都通过了税收部门的检查。
去年，尤科斯实现营业额约150亿美元。根据美国公认会计准则，2003年前9个月公司实现利润25亿美元。几乎无法想象的是，尤科斯能在一年中逃税30亿美元，但依然是俄罗斯最大的纳税户之一。
然而，法庭全面支持上述主张，并命令尤科斯支付全部欠税。当尤科斯用它在另一家石油公司“西伯利亚石油公司”(Sibneft)所持股份还债的企图落空时，司法部宣布了出售Yuganskneftegas的计划，售价居然只是其市值的大约十分之一。这还不足以还清所欠税款，很可能还要出售更多的资产。俄罗斯政府可以庆祝它的胜利了。它的代表们现在会说，按照人民的意愿，寡头被降伏了；现在人人都要纳税(且不论资本正在逃离这个国家)。
但很显然，政府凌驾于法律之上。依靠国家安全部门，检察官和法庭可以使任何公司破产。尤科斯案不是一个孤立的偶然事件；2001年破坏弗拉基米尔?古辛斯基的电视公司的行动，也采用了大致相同的模式。在地方省份，当地政府也在采取类似的行动。
但是，一家蒙羞受辱的企业，是不会成为俄罗斯经济增长的发动机的。在市场经济中，繁荣昌盛是由果敢的个人和企业创造的，他们甘冒风险，而不仅仅是循规蹈矩。俄罗斯的私营部门不会成为自由、独立和文明的社会所需要的堡垒。而官僚当局也不太可能承担这个角色。
7月21日，俄罗斯实业家与企业家联盟(Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs)主席阿尔卡季?沃尔斯基(Arkady Volsky)在电视上表示：“这是一起按需定制的破产事件，我完全可以想象是谁下了定单。但我不会说：我有6个侄子，我确实感到害怕。”他不是唯一感到害怕的人。我也害怕。在我看来，这恰恰是俄罗斯政府要我们感受到的。
