While Hong Kong's Econ Recovers, Bank Lending Languishes
While many of Hong Kong's businesses are enjoying the benefits of an economic recovery that is now about a year old, local banks are still struggling to expand their core business: lending money. Even though consumer spending and corporate investment have continued to pick up this year, local households and companies seem mostly uninterested in taking out new debt. Loans for use in Hong Kong have increased by a grand total of 0.8% from the end of 2003 through May 2004, the most recent figures available. By contrast, at the beginning of this year some analysts were forecasting lending growth of as much as 10% in 2004, in line with an expansion in the economy expected to top 6%. Though the economy hasn't disappointed - it expanded 6.8% in the first quarter - loan growth of that scale now looks unachievable. Opinions differ on whether the weakness in lending is due to structural changes in Hong Kong's economy or just shows that credit demand is lagging behind the broader recovery. But few would deny that overall bank lending has been stagnant. Even the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the banking supervisor, already has unofficially dubbed this the 'creditless recovery.' 'There just doesn't seem to be a good bounce-back (in lending) on the commercial side,' HKMA Deputy Chief Executive William Ryback said earlier this year. 'That may be because we're moving more toward a service economy and less toward hard manufacturing.' Proponents of that view argue that the service sector, which accounts for more than 80% of Hong Kong's economy, has much less need for bank lending. Service companies expand by hiring new people, rather than investing in big, capital-intensive projects. And the manufacturing businesses that are still run from Hong Kong mainly have their facilities in mainland China, and can borrow from Chinese banks if they need to expand there. 'Hong Kong is a mature market, with a definite move away from capital-intensive industry. If you have no need for capex, where's your loan growth going to come from?' asked Alistair Scarff, an analyst at Merrill Lynch. 'There's an element of truth to that argument,' said Martin Wardle, a financial services partner at KPMG in Hong Kong. But he added: 'I think there's a large element of cyclicality.' At this point in the recovery, most companies are still using up their accumulated cash for new spending, Wardle said. They eventually will start to take out more debt once those reserves are depleted, he said, while adding: 'I think it will be some time.' Residential Mortgages Stagnate But households and individuals aren't showing much of an appetite for lending either. Here, analysts point out that the recovery has yet to consistently deliver higher wages or large numbers of new jobs; the unemployment rate edged down to a still-high 6.9% in the second quarter. Residential mortgages, long the bread and butter of retail banks in Hong Kong, also aren't growing, despite a rebound in the local property market. While new loans are being made at a faster pace than they were last year, that is still barely enough to keep pace with the repayments of existing loans. Total outstanding mortgage loans grew just 0.5% from December 2003 to the end of May. The slow population growth in Hong Kong limits how fast demand for housing can grow over the long term. And with the property market largely stagnant at the moment, after a rally earlier in the year, it doesn't look like any surge in price or volume will appear to deliver a short-term boost to mortgage lending. 'Over the next six months, the market, including us, is looking for price corrections in the property market again,' said Michael Chan, an analyst at JP Morgan. 'It looks like even 5% (loan growth) is going to be a very difficult figure to achieve.' With margins on loans already extremely tight, thanks to high liquidity and tough competition for whatever lending is available, even the biggest banks will have struggled to boost interest income in the first half of 2004. Leading banks include the local units of U.K.-based HSBC Holdings PLC (HBC) and Standard Chartered PLC (STAN.LN), as well as China's BOC Hong Kong (Holdings) Ltd. (2388.HK) and locally owned Bank of East Asia Ltd. (0023.HK). Still, banks last year managed to deliver impressive growth in profits despite weak loan demand, and many analysts expect a repeat performance in the first half of 2004. They have relied on a combination of cost controls, smaller bad-debt charges and new sources of income - such as wealth management products - to keep improving their bottom line. 'I think you'll see significant improvement in the bottom line, but not in core profitability,' said Merrill Lynch's Scarff. Once the boost to earnings from declining bad-debt provisions peters out, he said, it will be difficult for Hong Kong banks to find new sources of growth. 'They have done very well in protecting their earnings stream' during the weak economy that followed the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis, said JP Morgan's Chan. 'But margins are still under pressure, and interest revenue isn't going to turn around. Any growth angle has to come through from China, and that is going to be three to four years away.' TABLE: Hong Kong's Stagnant Bank Lending Total Loans Used in HK Mortgages End-Dec 2002 HK$2.08 Tln HK$1.83 Tln HK$534 Bln End-May 2003 HK$2.05 Tln HK$1.82 Tln HK$526 Bln End-Dec 2003 HK$2.04 Tln HK$1.81 Tln HK$522 Bln End-May 2004 HK$2.05 Tln HK$1.82 Tln HK$525 Bln Source: Hong Kong Monetary Authority
特写：香港银行信贷业务未见起色
虽然持续了一年左右的经济复苏使许多香港企业得益，但当地银行仍在苦苦挣扎，力求扩展放贷这一核心业务。 今年以来，香港的消费支出和企业投资继续上升，但本地居民和企业对增借新债似乎不感兴趣。根据最新统计数据，用于香港的贷款从去年年底至今年5月底仅微升了0.8%。 相比之下，今年年初一些分析人士曾预测香港本年度的贷款增长率将高达10%，与预期增幅超过6%的经济保持一致。虽然香港经济不负众望，在第一季度增长了6.8%，但贷款并没有出现相应的大幅上扬。 此间舆论分成两派，一派认为贷款增长缓慢缘于香港经济的结??性变化，而另一派认为这是信贷需求落后于整个经济的发展速度所致。虽然意见不一，但大家都认为银行业的信贷状况低迷不振。连银行业的监管机构香港金融管理局(Hong Kong Monetary Authority)也私下把当前的经济复苏称为“没有信贷增长的复苏“。 香港金融管理局副总裁韦柏康(William Ryback)今年早些时候曾表示，商业领域的信贷似乎没有出现强劲反弹，这也许是因为香港经济越来越倚重服务业，而非制造业。 支持上述观点的人士认为，占香港经济80%以上的服务业对银行贷款的需求比较少。服务型企业主要通过增加人手，而不是投资于资本密集型的大项目进行扩张。而香港的制造型企业大多把工厂设在大陆，如果需要扩张的话可向内地银行申请贷款。 美林公司(Merrill Lynch & Co., MER)的分析师阿利斯塔尔．斯卡夫(Alistair Scarff)说，香港是个成熟的市场，绝非是资本密集型企业唱主角。如果你根本没有资本支出，银行的信贷增长从哪来？ 毕马威会计事务所(KPMG)驻香港的主管金融服务业的合夥人马丁．沃尔德(Martin Wardle)认为，上述观点有一定道理，但主要原因还是信贷增长具有周期性。 沃尔德表示，在现阶段的经济复苏中，大多数公司是动用过去累积的现金进行投资的，一旦积蓄用尽，它们最终会向银行借款的。他同时补充说，“我认为这需要一段时间。“ 住宅按揭业务停滞不前 可是，香港家庭和个人的举债热情也不高。分析师们指出，这是由于当地的经济复苏尚未导致劳动者的工资持续走高，也未导致新就业岗位源源不断涌现；此外，第二季度的失业率虽然有所下降，但仍处于6.9%的高位。 尽管香港的房地产市场出现回升，但银行零售业务的主角住宅按揭贷款并未增长。虽然放贷速度较上年同期有所加快，但仍赶不上现有贷款的偿还速度。从去年12月至今年5月底，未偿住宅按揭贷款的总额仅上涨了0.5%。 从长远来看，香港人口的缓慢增长将限制住房需求。继今年早些时候出现上扬之后，当地房地产市场又陷于停滞，因此短期内房产价格或销量不会出现大幅上涨，进而提振按揭贷款额。 JP摩根(J.P. Morgan)的分析师Michael Chan说：“在今后6个月里，市场，包括我们，都预计房产价格将再次出现回调。因此，5%的信贷增幅看来都很难达到。“ 由于现有信贷的流动性很高，同时竞争十分激烈，这导致信贷业务的利润率非常低，因此连大银行都难以提高今年上半年的利息收入。香港的大银行有英国汇丰控股有限公司(HSBC Holdings PLC (ADS), HBC, 简称：汇丰控股)和渣打银行(Standard Chartered PLC, STAN.LN)旗下的子公司、中国的中银香港（控股）有限公司(BOC Hong Kong (Holdings) Ltd., 2388.HK, 简称：中银香港)以及香港本地的东亚银行有限公司(Bank of East Asia Ltd., 0023.HK, 简称：东亚银行)。 尽管信贷需求疲软，香港银行业去年的利润仍增长了不少。许多分析师预计今年上半年仍将保持这一升势。他们把利润增长的主要动力归于成本控制、坏帐减少以及扩展收入来源。 斯卡夫认为香港银行的利润会显着增长，但核心业务利润率不会同步增长。一旦坏帐准备金减少无法再提振利润，当地银行将很难再发现利润增长的新来源。 JP摩根的Chan说，香港各银行在1997-98年亚洲金融危机爆发后的疲软经济中很好地保护了自己的收入源泉，但利润率仍面临重重压力，利息收入也没有起色。银行业收入增长的动力必然来自大陆，而这还需叁到五年时间。
