New wave of investment sparks Mexican revival
Economic life is returningto the deserts of northern Mexico. Electrolux is building a refrigerator plant in Ciudad Juárez, across the border from El Paso in Texas. Motorola will open a computer parts factory in the bustling border city of Nogales later this year.
And in the last three months General Electric has increased its employment in the region by 22,000.
This new wave of investment has come like water in the desert. Between October 2000 and March 2002, Mexico's "maquiladoras"-factories that assemble imported parts for re-export - lost 270,000 jobs, or more than one in five, sparking fears that Mexico had permanently lost ground to China.
But now the trend seems to have sharply reversed.
In the year to May, maquiladora exports rose by 21.8 per cent, part of a startling increase of 21.1 per cent in overall exports - the strongest monthly rise in almost four years. Employment is at its highest since 2001, with the number of maquiladora jobs up by 2.5 per cent over the year to April.
Far from buckling under competitive pressures, the link between Mexican and US industrial production seems stronger than ever.
"There are some industries where the competition from China is serious. But it's also clear that [the] Delphi and Ford and GE plants weren't growing for two or three years, and now suddenly they are growing very quickly," says Luis Rubio, director of the Centre for Research and Development in Mexico City. He says the maquiladoras are "totally integrated into the US industrial production process".
Mexico's labour ministry says about 300 manufacturing companies relocated to China from Mexico between 2001 and 2003. Many made products for which shipping costs are minimal, such as toys or small electronics.
Some garment makers, also fled to Central America, escaping wages that can be four times higher in Mexico after including social security and other benefits.
Few are returning, meaning the recovery is spread unevenly. According to Mexico's national statistics institute, job losses have continued over the last two years in labour-intensive sectors such as textiles, furniture, toys and leather goods.
But the US upturn, combined with manufacturing innovations, suggests that the recovery will continue.
"I don't think this is a blip," says John Christman, an expert in maquiladoras at the Global Insight consultancy in Mexico City. "In the years to come we will see renewed and sustained growth but the growth rates won't be in double digits like they were in the 1990s or even in the 1980s."
Some companies participating in the resurgence are new to Mexico, like Electrolux - which will employ about 3,000 people after cutting about that many jobs in Michigan and Texas.
Others, like Motorola, have been there for years. It opened its first maquiladora in 1966, and the 1,000 jobs at the new plant will take its staff in Mexico to 4,800.
But its latest investment is not an old-style maquiladora, which relied solely on cheap labour. High-tech factories like Motorola's are emblematic of a new generation of plants specialising in "just in time" production.
This makes the most of Mexico's greatest advantage over Asia - its location.
Mario Ocampo of Motorola attributes its decision to expand in Mexico to its rapid access to the US, and the supply of qualified labour. "Mexico is staying very competitive" when it comes to plants with "short production runs and quick turnaround that are more technology-intensive," says Ralph Watkins at the US International Trade Commission. Decades of experience have produced a pool of skilled workers and managers who know how to communicate with their American counterparts.
"If you need customisation, you're going to want that done in Mexico rather than China," says Mr Watkins. So sectors such as auto parts, large screen TV sets, aerospace equipment and medical supplies are fuelling the sector's recovery.
China is not the only threat to Mexico. Bureaucratic barriers, including a complex tariff system, high utility bills, and the legal system, deter business.
"There is nothing we can do to prevent China from growing," says Jaime Zabludovsky, a consultant at the Inter-American Development Bank and one of Mexico's team on the talks which set up the North American Free Trade Agreement.
"[But] there is a very long list of things that we are not doing. The question becomes, how do we face not only the Chinese challenge but the Mexican challenge [of bureaucracy]? Hopefully the Chinese threat will help us to get our act together."
墨西哥经济重现生机
墨西哥北部的经济又开始重现生机。伊莱克斯集团（Electrolux）正在华雷斯建一家冰箱厂，与得克萨斯州的埃尔帕索隔着墨美边境遥遥相对。今年晚些时候，摩托罗拉（Motorola）也将在繁荣的边境城市――诺加莱斯开设一家工厂，生产电脑零部件。
在过去的三个月里，通用电气公司(General Electric)在墨西哥北部地区增加了2.2万名劳工人员。
这轮新的投资热潮好似给沙漠送来了甘泉。在2000年10月至2002年3月间，墨西哥的出口加工区工厂失去了27万个岗位，也就是5人中就有一人要失业。于是，人们便开始担心墨西哥已经不是中国的对手了。墨西哥的出口加工区工厂从国外进口零部件进行组装，然后再将成品出口。
现在，一切突然峰回路转。
今年5月与去年同期相比，出口加工区工厂的出口量上升了21.8％，而墨西哥的出口总量增加了21.1％。数字相当惊人，达到了4年来最高的月增长量。而今年4月和去年同期相比，出口加工区工厂的岗位增加了2.5％，就业率也达到了自2001年以来的最高点。
在激烈的竞争压力面前，墨西哥没有退却。现在，墨美两国在工业生产方面的联系比以往任何时候都要紧密。
墨西哥城研发中心（Centre for Research and Development in Mexico City）的主任路易斯?鲁比奥（Luis Rubio）说：“在某些工业领域里，来自中国方面的竞争很激烈。但另一方面，在这两三年里，德尔福汽车系统公司（Delphi）、福特汽车公司（Ford）和通用电气公司（GE）的厂房没有增长，但现在，他们突然又加快了发展的步伐。”鲁比奥还说，出口加工区工厂已“完全融入了美国工业生产过程”。
墨西哥劳工部表示，在2001年至2003年间，约有300家制造公司把厂址从墨西哥转移到了中国。其中，有许多厂家生产的都是玩具或小电器之类的产品，其运费非常低廉。
有些服装厂也迁到了中美，因为在墨西哥，工资中还要包括社会保险和其它福利，薪金总额比中美地区要高出4倍。
迁出的厂家之中很少有回头的，这就意味着，墨西哥北部经济的复苏还不是很稳定。据墨西哥国家统计学会的统计，在过去的两年里，纺织、家具、玩具和皮货等劳动密集型产业的失业现象还在继续。
但美国许多厂家在墨西哥增加了投资，再加上有些新的制造生产厂家的进驻，这些都表明，经济复苏还将继续。
墨西哥城全球透视咨询公司（Global Insight）的专家约翰?克里斯特曼（John Christman）说：“我认为，这不是昙花一现。在未来的几年里，我们将会看到墨西哥经济将有新的发展，而且这种发展是持续性的，但发展的速度不会像上个世纪90年代甚至80年代那样，超过10％。”
在经济复苏大潮中出现的企业中，有些是新露面的，比如伊莱克斯集团。该集团在密歇根和得克萨斯砍掉了约3000个岗位，准备把这些岗位放在墨西哥。
而其它一些企业在墨西哥已有多年，如摩托罗拉。1966年，它在墨西哥开出了第一家出口加工区工厂，如果加上新厂雇佣的1000名工人，那么摩托罗拉将在墨西哥提供4800个就业岗位。
但摩托罗拉最近投资建造的不是一家老式的出口加工区工厂，也就是说，靠的不仅仅只是廉价劳动力。像摩托罗拉这样的高科技公司代表的是新一代的生产方式，采用的是以需求为导向的及时适量生产模式。（"just in time" production）。
墨西哥与亚洲竞争的最大优势在于它的地理位置。
摩托罗拉的马里奥?奥坎波（Mario Ocampo）说，公司之所以决定在墨西哥拓展，是因为墨西哥有着通往美国的便利通道以及高质量的劳工。美国国际贸易委员会(US International Trade Commission)的拉尔夫?沃特金斯（Ralph Watkins）说：“墨西哥的竞争力还是很强的，因为墨西哥的生产厂家生产过程短，船只周转快，技术含量就高。” 墨西哥在该领域积累了几十年的经验，培养了一批技术熟练的工人和经验丰富的经理，他们知道该如何与美国同事沟通。
沃特金斯说：“如果你需要的是个性化的生产，其实你就应该来墨西哥而不是去中国。”因此，汽车配件、大屏幕电视、航空设备和医药用品等领域的厂家都参与到了墨西哥新一轮的经济复苏中来了。
但墨西哥面对的威胁不光只有中国。官僚作风，包括复杂的关税体制、高昂的水电费以及法制体系都是拦路虎。
美洲开发银行（Inter-American Development Bank ）的雅伊梅?扎布卢多斯基（Jaime Zabludovsky）说：“我们无法阻止中国的发展。但我们需要做的事还有很多。现在的问题是：我们如何才能应对来自中国的挑战，以及如何解决自身官僚方面的问题。我们希望，中国的威胁能促使我们自己能一齐行动起来。” 扎布卢多斯基也是墨西哥《北美自由贸易协定》(North American Free Trade Agreement)谈判小组的成员。
