China Beer Buzz: Who's Next As Foreign Breweries Tap In?
The recent takeover battle for China's Harbin Brewery Group by the world's two biggest beer makers has investors buzzing about the possibility of more foreign brewers bellying up to the bar in China.
The fight to win Harbin -- which saw Anheuser-Busch, the world's biggest brewer, pony up US$650 million to beat out rival SABMiller and gain control of China's fourth-largest beer maker -- has led investors and analysts to wonder whether top brewers such as Anheuser-Busch of the U.S., Belgium's Interbrew, Heineken of the Netherlands and SABMiller of the United Kingdom. will move away from joint ventures with Chinese partners in favor of full takeovers.
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"I think what happened with Harbin could be the start of a takeover trend in China," says Steven Goodman, a partner in the Hong Kong office of law firm Jones Day and a specialist in mergers and acquisitions.
"A well-chosen target can deliver immediate returns for an acquirer," he says, noting that with Harbin, Anheuser-Busch gains control of a beer maker with 7,500 employees and 13 brewing plants in China's industrial northeast, where beer consumption is growing fast. Hapi, Harbin's main brew, is the third-most-popular beer brand in China's $6 billion annual beer market, according to research by Citigroup/Smith Barney.
Takeovers often can be more attractive to foreign brewers than joint ventures with Chinese partners, which are susceptible to culture clashes, interference by Chinese government officials and differing strategic goals among managers, analysts say.
"Many multinationals have tried the joint-venture route, and it hasn't worked as they had hoped because the foreign brewers haven't been able to run the companies as they'd like," says one analyst. "There are risks to going it alone in China, but it could become the preferred method for foreigners if going it alone means gaining control."
Yet in many ways, Harbin was a unique case that is unlikely to be duplicated. The brewer had several elements that made a takeover possible, including a listing in Hong Kong, a broad base of shareholders with no single concern holding majority ownership, and a management team that was receptive to an acquisition. Few others among China's 300 domestic brewers have these attributes, analysts say.
In fact, only three other Chinese brewers are listed in Hong Kong -- Tsingtao Brewery, Guangdong Brewery Holdings and China Resources Enterprise, parent of China Resources Breweries.
Because the Harbin battle occurred in Hong Kong, the rules for a hostile takeover were along international standards, while the mainland's takeover rules have yet to be tested, say analysts. Also, foreign companies are able to acquire shares of Chinese companies listed on markets outside mainland China with little government interference.
The performance of the beer companies listed in Hong Kong has been mixed this year. Tsingtao Brewery's shares closed yesterday at 7.50 Hong Kong dollars (96 U.S. cents) each, down 21% from HK$9.50 a share at the year's start. Shares of Guangdong Brewery ended trading yesterday at HK$1.82, up 1.1% from HK$1.80 at the beginning of the year. China Resources Enterprises -- which has interests outside of beer -- saw its share price finish yesterday at HK$9.75, up 7.7% from HK$9.05 on the first trading day of 2004.
"The reality is that Chinese breweries are performing below international standards, and it will take a long time to improve this," says Lilian Leung, an analyst at ING Financial Markets in Hong Kong.
Of the Hong Kong-listed brewers, only Tsingtao -- China's biggest beer maker, with a 14% market share -- doesn't have a controlling majority shareholder. Yet most analysts say it is unlikely that China's government, which owns 45% of Tsingtao, will allow its No. 1 beer producer to fall completely under the control of a foreign company. Anheuser-Busch owns 9.9% of Tsingtao, and that stake will grow to 27% over the next decade through a bond conversion.
Also, China's beer market is heavily fragmented. So it could be difficult for foreign brewers to gain significant scale or national coverage through the takeover of even a handful of domestic brewers. Gaining control of Harbin gives Anheuser-Busch only a 3.4% market share, all of it located in the northeast.
Foreign brewers have tried to go it alone in China before. In the early 1990s, Heineken, Interbrew and Denmark's Carlsberg entered the Chinese market, keen to take advantage of growing beer consumption and transform their up-market premium brews into national names. But foreign brewers soon discovered that the Chinese had little appetite for expensive beer and favored cheaper local brews. This, combined with frequent price wars and very fragmented local beer traditions, made it difficult to turn a profit. By the end of the decade, brewers ranging from Britain's Bass Brewers to Carlsberg had made hasty retreats from the market while Australia's Foster's Group took a major charge on its investments there.
Now, foreign beer makers are making a renewed push -- only this time they are teaming up with Chinese partners and tapping local knowledge. Carlsberg, Interbrew and Heineken all have taken stakes in regional brands during the past two years.
SABMiller's China strategy is a case in point. With a focus on the northeast, which accounts for 30% of China's national beer consumption, SABMiller has taken a 49% stake in China Resources Breweries. SABMiller is using this joint venture to aggressively promote the domestic beer Snow Flake, but also hopes to introduce foreign-branded beers such as Miller Genuine Draft.
After losing Harbin to Anheuser-Busch, SABMiller has turned its focus to a possible joint venture with Ginsber Beer Group, a small brewer that would nevertheless further strengthen SABMiller's foothold in China's northeast, according to people familiar with SABMiller's plans.
With stringent takeover rules and the majority of China's breweries majority owned -- and in many cases the majority owner being a municipal or regional government -- many foreign brewers may continue to be consigned to taking minority stakes in companies located in key markets that they would like to penetrate, analysts say.
"Any future takeovers in China are likely to be Balkanized, in which several foreign beer makers take minority stakes in a Chinese brewer," says one analyst.
谁将步安海斯后尘？
全球两大酿酒商前段时间争购哈尔滨啤酒集团有限公司(Harbin Brewery Group Ltd., 0249.HK, 简称：哈尔滨啤酒)的战役让投资者纷纷猜测，可能会有更多境外酒商争相挤入中国市场。
这场争夺哈尔滨啤酒之战最终以安海斯公司(Anheuser-Busch Cos. Inc., BUD)大获全胜而告终。这家全球最大的酿酒商以6.5亿美元的出价击败对手SABMiller，赢得了中国第四大啤酒酿造商的控制权。战场喧嚣过后，投资者和分析师们开始揣度：像美国安海斯、比利时Interbrew、荷兰喜力公司(Heineken N.V., 00915.AE)和英国SABMiller这些外国公司是否会放弃同中国合作伙伴成立合资企业的做法，其在华经营战略准备向全盘收购的方向倾斜？
众达国际法律事务所(Jones Day)香港办事处的合伙人史蒂文?古德曼(Steven Goodman)认为，哈尔滨啤酒争夺战有可能揭开外资收购中国啤酒企业浪潮的序幕。古德曼是并购方面的专家。
他说，如果目标选择得当，能立即为收购者带来回报。并指出，收购哈尔滨啤酒后，安海斯得到的是一家在中国东北老工业基地拥有7,500名员工，13家酒厂的企业，在那里，啤酒的销量正在迅猛增长。根据花旗/美邦(Citigroup/Smith Barney)的调查结果，哈尔滨啤酒的主要品牌──哈啤是年销量高达60亿美元的中国市场上第三大畅销品牌。
分析师们称，对外国酿酒商而言，收购往往比同中国企业合建合资企业更具吸引力。他们说文化冲突、政府官员干预以及管理层战略目标不一致等问题都会影响合资企业的健康发展。
某分析师称，许多跨国企业都曾试图走合资这条路，但结果距离它们的希望相去甚远，因为它们无法按照自己的设想运行企业。他说，在中国独自运作一家企业存在风险，但独立运作由于掌握了控制权，因而还是颇受外商青睐的选择。
不过从很多角度来看，哈尔滨啤酒之所以能被收购是因为它具备其他公司所不具备的一些得天独厚的条件。例如，该公司在香港上市，股东数量众多，而且全都是小股东，而且该公司的管理团队也愿意接受收购。分析师们称，中国300多家酿酒商中很少还有哪家能够具备以上特性。
实际上，另外只有3家中国酿酒公司在香港上市，分别为青岛啤酒股份有限公司(Tsingtao Brewery Co. Ltd., 600600.SH, 简称：青岛啤酒)、粤海啤酒集团有限公司(Guangdong Brewery Holdings Ltd., 0124.HK, 简称：粤海啤酒)和华润啤酒（中国）有限公司(China Resources Breweries)的母公司华润创业有限公司(China Resources Enterprise Ltd., H.CRE, 简称：华润创业)。
分析师们称，由于哈尔滨啤酒收购战发生在香港，敌意收购规则完全依照国际标准，而大陆的收购法则尚未经过实战检验。而且，外国公司在收购于大陆以外市场上市的中国企业股票时，可能免受政府干涉。
今年，在香港上市的啤酒公司股票表现良莠不齐。青岛啤酒周一收于7.50港元（合96美分），较年初时的9.50港元低21%。粤海啤酒周一收于1.82港元，较年初的1.80港元微升1.1%。华润创业周一收于9.75港元，较2004年首个交易日的收盘价9.05港元高出7.7%，除啤酒以外，该公司还拥有其他资产。
ING Financial Markets驻香港的分析师Lilian Leung说，实际上，中国酿酒商股票的表现与国际标准还有差距，要想同国际标准接轨还需要很长时间。
在香港上市的大陆啤酒公司中，只有中国最大的啤酒酿造企业青岛啤酒没有控股大股东。青岛啤酒的市场占有率为14%。不过，大多数分析师认为，持有青岛啤酒45%股权的中国政府不太可能允许这家中国最大啤酒企业完全落入一家外国企业之手。安海斯持有青岛啤酒9.9%股权，未来10年里通过债转股，安海斯的持股比例将升至27%。
中国的啤酒市场也是诸侯割据。因此即使是收购了少量国有啤酒企业，外国公司也很难在市场上形成很大规模或是将销售网络铺遍全国。哈尔滨啤酒的市场占有率仅有3.4%，并且全部市场都位于中国东北。
此前，外国酿酒商为能在中国独自运营而不断努力。上世纪90年代初期，喜力公司、Interbrew和丹麦的嘉士伯公司(Carlsberg)进入了中国市场，它们迫切希望能够利用这个啤酒销量不断增长的市场来获利，并希望将它们的高品质啤酒变为中国人的日常饮品。但是，外国啤酒公司很快发现，中国消费者对于高价啤酒的兴趣不大，他们更喜欢低端的国产品牌。这一事实，加上频频爆发的价格战和异常分散的啤酒市场，导致企业很难赢利。到90年代末，从英国的Bass Brewers到嘉士伯，许多外国啤酒商仓皇撤退，澳大利亚的Foster's Group则出售了其在华业务。
如今，外国啤酒商卷土重来，不同的是，这次它们寻找了一些中国战略伙伴，并更多了解了当地市场。嘉士伯、Interbrew和喜力都在过去两年中收购了部分当地品牌股权。
SABMiller的中国发展战略就是一例。该公司将发展重点放在中国东北，该地区的啤酒销量占全国的30%。SABMiller已经获得了华润啤酒49%的股权。并正利用该合资企业积极推广“雪花啤酒”这一国内品牌，不过SABMiller还希望能够引入美乐干啤(Miller Genuine Draft)等外国啤酒品牌。
据熟悉SABMiller计划的人称，在争夺哈尔滨啤酒失利后，SABMiller将重点转向同金士百啤酒(Ginsber Beer Group)建立合资企业的可能性之上，虽然金士百啤酒规模不大，但仍能够进一步加强SABMiller在中国东北市场的地位。
分析师们称，鉴于中国大陆苛刻的收购规定，以及中国啤酒企业持股状况非常集中（在很多时候，控股大股东是中国省级或地方政府），许多外国啤酒公司可能会继续在它们有意进入的关键市场中寻找当地企业，并试图收购这些企业的少数股权。
某分析师称，未来进行的任何收购交易都有可能导致股权较为分散，或许会出现几家外国啤酒商持有某一家中国啤酒公司少数股权的现象。
