Japan's Fragile Economic Recovery Spreads Beyond Large Exporters
Japan's fragile economic recovery is gaining muscle, broadening far beyond the export sector. Economists now are saying this could point to a way out of the price declines that have dogged the country for the past five years.
Struggling to emerge from a decade of economic stagnation, the world's second-largest economy expanded in every quarter of 2003. In the October-through-December period, that growth was a blistering annualized 6.4% -- the fastest growth since 1991, at the tail end of the bubble economy.
But there are caveats. Last year's gains were largely driven by exports and capital investment, while consumer spending remained limp. That left Japan vulnerable to possible external hiccups, such as a slowdown in key export markets China and the U.S. In addition, wide-ranging price declines continued to erode wealth; consumer prices have been falling since 1999. Although the economy expanded 2.7% last year from 2002 in real terms, it only crept up 0.1% before price adjustments.
Now, though, data show the recovery is spreading beyond large exporters to other parts of the economy, which could augur an end to deflation.
Thursday, the Bank of Japan quarterly tankan survey of business confidence produced the first positive reading -- enterprises saying business was favorable minus those describing it as unfavorable -- for nonmanufacturers since November 1996, and the highest reading since 1991. The list of nonmanufacturers is heavy with services and utilities, and is dependent on domestic demand. More confidence among these corporations, says ING Financial Markets economist Richard Jerram, "shows you've got a broadening, deepening recovery."
Japan's increased buoyancy is caused by significant improvements in corporate performance and gains in the stock market. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 47% during the fiscal year ended Wednesday.
As Japanese companies have become busier, the nation's unemployment rate has dropped. It was 5% in February, compared with a peak of 5.5% in January 2003. The number of people working during February rose by 160,000 compared with a year earlier -- the third-consecutive monthly increase.
Boosted by higher wages and stock-market gains, household consumption jumped 6.9% in February from the previous year. The monthly figure received an artificial boost from the extra day for leap year and the rare occurrence of five Sundays in a February, though UBS Investment Research economist Ayako Mitsui said adjusted growth was still about 3% year-on-year.
The pickup in domestic demand is helping remedy deflation, a structural problem that has dogged Japan throughout its long slump. In February, the core consumer-price index -- the headline price indicator -- didn't fall from a year ago, remaining flat. That is partly the result of special factors, such as one-off increases in medical costs and the cigarette tax, and the CPI probably will post declines again later this year.
But downward pressures on prices are weakening. Although inexpensive imports from China used to be considered a contributor to Japanese price declines, Chinese demand for steel and basic materials is now bidding up international prices. Inside Japan, demand for hot new digital products, such as cellphones, is braking the decline in prices of electronic devices. The Bank of Japan's corporate-goods price index, the widest measure of such prices, fell year-on-year for most of the past 10 years. Then it went flat in January and February.
A widening recovery also could ease the Japanese government's nerves over the rising yen. When the yen rises against the dollar, Japanese products become less competitive in overseas markets, jeopardizing export growth. Nervous about this, in light of Japan's dependence on exports for growth, the Ministry of Finance in 2003 ordered intervention in the foreign-exchange market on an unprecedented scale, and Japan sold ￥20 trillion ($191.77 billion) for dollars. Data released on Wednesday showed that Japan threw more than ￥4.7 trillion at the foreign exchanges in March, bringing its year-to-date intervention to more than ￥15 trillion.
日本经济复苏底气更足
日本的经济复苏正从脆弱走向稳固，继出口行业之后更多领域呈现出复苏迹象。经济学家们如今认为，这意味著日本有望走出困扰其长达5年之久的通货紧缩局面。
在经历了10年的停滞后，日本经济在2003年的所有季度都实现了增长。第四季度的经济增幅折合成年率后达到6.4%，为自1991年泡沫经济即将破灭以来的最高增幅。
但潜在的隐患依然存在。日本经济增长主要归功于出口及资本投资，但消费支出依然疲软。这就使得日本经济容易受到外部因素的冲击。比如，中国、美国等重要出口市场需求下降就会打击到日本的出口业。此外，普遍的物价下跌使得社会财富不断缩水。日本的消费者价格自1999年以来一直在下滑，尽管去年日本经济较2002年的实际增长率达到2.7%，但对物价因素进行调整前，增长率仅有0.1%。
不过，现有数据显示日本经济的复苏正在从大型的出口商扩展到其他经济领域。这标志著日本的通货紧缩局面有望结束。
日本央行(Bank of Japan)周四公布的季度短观(Tankan)调查显示，日本大型非制造业景气指数为5，为1996年11月来的首次出现正值，同时也创下1991年来的最高值。
短观调查所涵盖的日本大型非制造业企业主要集中在服务和公用事业领域，它们的业务严重依赖于国内需求。ING Financial Markets的经济学家理查德?杰拉姆(Richard Jerram)表示，非制造业企业景气指数好转意味著日本的经济复苏正在向全面化和纵深化的方向发展。
大型制造业景气动向指数升至12，为1997年6月来的最高点。大型制造业和非制造业景气动向指数为7年半来首次同时为正值。大型制造业对第二季度的商业景气情况也持乐观态度，他们预计景气指数将为12。
企业业绩出色，股市连连上扬
企业业绩的明显好转，以及股市连续上扬使得日本经济的复苏势头得到加强。截至周三的上个财政年度，日经指数累计涨幅达47%。由于日本企业获得了更多的业务，2月份的失业率从2003年1月份时的波峰5.5%降至5.0%。2月份就业总人数比上年同期增加了16万人，至6,209万人，为连续第三个月增长。受薪金增长和股市上扬带动，2月份日本家庭支出比上年同期增长6.9%。
UBS Investment Research的经济学家Ayako Mitsui称，尽管闰年因素提振了今年的经济数据，但家庭支出较上年同期的增幅仍为3%左右。
国内需求增长缓解了通货紧缩状况，这个结构性问题在漫长的衰退日子里始终困扰著日本经济。2月份，不含新鲜食品在内的核心消费者价格指数没有下降，与上年同期持平。
不过，核心消费者价格指数持平与某些特殊因素有关，如医疗成本和烟草税的一次性增长，因此，今年晚些时候CPI仍有可能再次下降。
但物价的下行压力正在减弱。尽管来自中国的廉价商品一直以来被认为是导致日本物价下跌的原因之一，但中国对钢铁及基础材料的需求增加抬高了国际市场上的商品价格。
日本国内对于移动电话等热门数码新产品的需求使得电子产品价格的下降趋势得到了遏制。
过去10年中，日本央行发布的企业商品价格指数几乎连年下降，但在今年前两个月却开始持稳。该指数是最广泛的物价指标。
Barclays Capital的日本首席经济学家Mamoru Yamazaki说，如果企业商品价格指数上升，将对消费价格产生上行压力。
他和其他大多数经济学家都相信，消费者价格指数将从明年某个时候开始稳定上扬。
更多领域开始复苏还有可能让对日圆走强惴惴不安的日本政府松一口气。日圆兑美元汇率上扬时，日本产品在海外市场的竞争力会下降，从而威胁到日本的出口增长。
由于日本经济增长十分依赖出口，因此日本政府对于日圆走强相当紧张，去年财务省以史无前例的规模大举干涉汇市，共计抛售了20万亿日圆来买进美元。
周三公布的数据显示，日本在3月份向外汇市场投入了4.7万亿日圆的资金，今年迄今的干预金额超过15万亿日圆。
然而，经济持续增长以及股市上扬或许意味著日本出口商已经有能力承受日圆走强了。同时美国对于日本汇市干预的容忍度或许也会下降。Yamazaki说，现在政府更难入市干预了。
