Good News and Bad for 2004
This year, spam and viruses will get worse; camera phones will become easier to use -- but you'll be lucky if your Bluetooth gadgets do, too.
Another year, another bunch of resolutions dashed. Will this year be any better?
Last year, I grumbled about standards, and how just because we've got all these great technologies and gadgets bulging out of our handbags, pockets or men's purses, it doesn't mean they can talk to each other any better (Get Those Gadgets in Sync, January 2003).
Not much has changed. We have standards but manufacturers either don't care or haven't bothered to make them work well, or work with products other than their own.
UNDER THE WIRE
As part of my commitment to the new year, I've given my blog a facelift. For those of you still not sure what a blog is, think Log, and then think Web. Put it together and you have Web Log. But that's too many syllables for the online-in-a-hurry crowd, so it's just become blog. Awful word, I know, but at least it's memorable.
Blogs are homes to thoughts, news, whatever, and they're getting more and more popular -- and mainstream. Even politicians, from the U.S. to Iran, have them.
Anyway, check out my new Loose Wire Blog at
www.loosewireblog.com (note the new address, folks), where you'll find more rants, raves, comments and pointers than we have room for in this column. It's free.
To give you an idea of what we talk about on the blog, here's a taster of recent postings:
Our friend the iPod is getting quite a bit of press of late. A posting from December 29 points to articles suggesting it may be the new standard bearer of a new form of digital-rights management, which may or may not be a good thing. What's clear is that the iPod of the future is going to be a lot more than a cigarette-packet-sized device to play music to you while you jog (or garden, or vegetate). It will be your personal digital assistant, a phone, and possibly even play back movies.
Another recent posting discusses strong rumors of cheaper iPods on the way in January:
Web sites say Apple's Steve Jobs may unveil a $100 iPod, smaller and with a range of color options, storing between two and four gigabytes, compared with the current $300-400 iPods that hold between 10 and 40 gigabytes. Apple, of course, is saying nothing.
Christmas has been the season of scamming, particularly phishing -- the art of depriving folk of their sensitive password data and then using it to empty their pockets.
A posting in late December quotes Anti-Phishing.org, an industry Web site, as saying it has seen "dramatic" growth in November and December of e-mail spoofing (e-mails claiming to be from, for example, your bank) and general fraud activity.
Several scams played on the holiday theme, including one which looks like an online Christmas card, apparently from the AOL Hallmark team, where the recipient is asked to visit a Web site to pick up his or her card. To access the scamming site, the person is then asked to log in to their AOL account, giving away their account name and password in the process. Oops.
Meanwhile, thanks for all the e-mails you sent in this year. It really helps to know what readers are interested in, and I'm more than happy to hear from those of you who disagree with me. Or from those who feel I'm getting too tetchy sometimes. So keep the e-mails coming in the year ahead.
Talking of writing in, there's still time to submit your contender for the REVIEW Spam Lit 2003 Award, using only subject lines and text from spam you've received. E-mail entries to me at
spamlit@jeremywagstaff.com before January 8. Remember: Loose Wire's got some nice USB flash drives to be won -- belated Xmas gifts for the winners.
Tried to synchronize your personal digital assistant with your laptop using Bluetooth recently? Well, you probably have and you're one of those annoying people for whom it's a seamless, pleasurable experience. But for the rest of us it's miserable.
Occasionally there's a glimmer of sunlight. Apple has done a pretty good job of making Bluetooth something you don't really think about. Bluetooth is simply a wireless technology that enables two or more gadgets to talk to each other without using cables. Nothing special, but it becomes a kerfuffle under Microsoft Windows, to the point it's like trying to get a couple to make up after a battle over the washing-up. With a Mac all you see is a Bluetooth logo at the top of the screen and everything else is behind the scenes. That's how it should be. But won't be in the Windows world until Bluetooth is part of the operating system, and not just an afterthought.
So what do I see happening in 2004? I think Bluetooth will either thrive or die this year, as users punish manufacturers for not displaying sufficient commitment to getting something with a Bluetooth logo on it to talk to another Bluetooth gadget from a different manufacturer. If these standards don't work they will die off.
Elsewhere, something called RSS (Really Simple Syndication) is going to take off in a big way. This is another standard -- used for distributing content without using e-mail, and without lots of fiddling. Say you have an online journal, or blog. People like it, and want to read it every time you add something. They could visit it every so often to check out whether it's been updated. That's a pain. Or they could subscribe via e-mail, so that every update appears in their inbox. Better, but how can they be sure you're not going to send them lots of extra stuff, or sell their e-mail address to spammers? And how easy is it to unsubscribe? For you, and for them, e-mail has downsides.
So how about if they just click on a little orange button on your Web site and then, hey presto, a program called a newsreader in their computer (which they've already downloaded, being hip to the whole thing) loads up recent updates to your journal and occasionally checks for more. You don't have to do anything more, and neither does the subscriber.
That's RSS -- and it's already becoming the way a lot of folk get their news, personal and professional information. Expect to see more corporates get aboard this year, and, inevitably, folk trying to make money out of it, either by trying to bend the standard to their own interests by "developing" it, or more reasonably by including advertising. Media organizations that don't embrace this technology will regret it.
One of the other advantages with RSS is that it bypasses spammers, at least for now. Because RSS feeds only appear in your computer if you ask for them, you can stop anything you don't like quickly and conclusively. Spam, or junk mail, works differently: Once someone has your e-mail address, or guesses it correctly, they can send you anything and you don't have much defence, short of changing your e-mail address every day. This doesn't mean, sadly, that spam is going to go away. In fact, in 2004, it will get worse, as laws in Europe and the U.S. push spamming operations offshore. Spammers will rely on computers in the unregulated world to send out their junk. This will strengthen the ability of international ne'er-do-wells to harness technology and the Internet to make money, via fraud, blackmail and hacking. So expect more and more sophisticated, viruses, Trojans and worms.
On a happier note, expect to see camera phones and smart phones get better, easier to use, and for operators to improve services and offer more for less. Competition will partly do this, but also users will, through their own ingenuity and refusal to be hoodwinked, prod operators to keep bills low and interoperability high (i.e., sending a picture from one cellphone carrier to another, or from one make of cellphone to another). Users will come up with interesting ways to use this new technology, which will have very little to do with what the carriers or manufacturers envisaged. This will open up whole new ways for people to interact and share information. Which, in the end, is what having standards is all about.
未来一年的科技新生活
又一年过去了，还是有许多想法没能实现。今年能否有所好转呢？
去年，我抱怨过技术标准的混乱：我们拥有先进的科技，手提包里、口袋里或钱包里鼓鼓囊囊的全是新奇的科技品，但这并不意味著各种产品之间就能很好地合作。
现在还是老样子。技术标准不是没有，但生产商们根本不愿费神去完善它们，或是让它们与其他厂商的产品能够兼容。
你是否尝试过将个人数字助理(personal digital assistant)与使用蓝牙技术(Bluetooth)的手提电脑实现同步化？如果你是不怕麻烦的那种人，这对你是一次完美无缺的愉快体验。但对于其他人来说，这可是场折磨。
当然也不能一棒子把所有的人都打死。苹果电脑公司(Apple)就做了一件大好事，开发出了令人意想不到的蓝牙技术。蓝牙技术是一种无线技术，能让两个或更多个科技产品之间无须电线就可互动交流。虽然没有什么特别之处，但这种技术在微软(Microsoft)的"视窗"(Windows)操作系统中却一片混乱，要想试著加以协调，简直就像要让一对因洗碗发生争吵的夫妇言归于好那么费劲。在苹果电脑公司的麦克机(Mac)上，你会在电脑屏幕的上端看到蓝牙技术的标识，而其他的内容都隐藏在幕后。情况原本应该是这样的，但在"视窗"操作系统中就不对了，除非蓝牙技术成为"视窗"系统的一部份，而不是后来加入的东西。
那么，蓝牙技术在2004年的前景如何？我个人认为，这项技术在今年不是发达就是死亡。如果制造商们不拿出足够的诚意，让同时使用蓝牙技术、但由不同厂商生产的产品相互兼容，那么消费者们就会做出惩罚。如果这些技术标准难以奏效，它们就会消亡。
与此同时，一种名为Really Simple Syndication (RSS)的技术将大放光芒。RSS是另一种技术标准，它可以不通过电子邮件以及其他繁琐的程序发送信息。假设你在互联网上发行了一份刊物。大家都喜欢看这份刊物，恨不得每次更新后马上就看到新内容。他们会频繁地上网浏览，看看内容是否更新了。这样做很麻烦。他们也可以通过电子邮件订阅这份刊物，于是每次更新的内容都会出现在他们的邮箱里。这个办法比较好，但是读者们能确定你不会发送大量其他信息吗？或是把他们的邮件地址卖给垃圾邮件发送者吗？此外，是否很容易退订呢？无论是对于你，还是对于读者，电子邮件都有不利的一面。
现在，读者只需点击你的个人网站上的一个橙色按纽，随后一瞬间，一个名为newsreader的软件（读者早已把该软件下载在他们的电脑里，并一切就绪）就会下载更新的内容，有时它还会检查刊物内容是否更新过。你不必再做什么了，读者也不必再费神了。
这就是RSS技术，许多人早已用它来获取新闻，以及各种涉及个人和专业的信息。预计今年会有更多的公司运用RSS技术。同时，人们也必然会利用它来赚钱：或是根据自己的利益进一步地发展这项技术，或是更为明智地做些广告。而那些对RSS不理不睬的媒体组织将来肯定会后悔的。
RSS的另一个好处是它能够避开垃圾邮件，至少现阶段是这样。由于RSS只是你要求时才出现在你的电脑上，因此你可以把不喜欢的东西很快地永远挡在门外。垃圾邮件的工作原理则不同：一旦他们得知、或猜中了你的电子邮件地址，他们就可以发给你任何信息，而你却束手无策，除非每天更换邮件地址。可糟糕的是，即便如此，垃圾邮件也不会消失。实际上，在2004年情况还会恶化，因为欧洲和美国的法律会促使发送垃圾邮件的行为向海外转移。垃圾邮件的发送者们会从那些未制定相关法律的国家继续兜售他们的东西。这反而使那些懒汉们变本加厉地利用科技和互联网，以欺骗和敲诈勒索来发财。因此，我认为今后会出现越来越多的更加复杂的病毒和蠕虫。
不过，令人高兴的是，我们预计摄像手机和智能手机会在今年进一步完善，操作更加简便，同时运营商们也会改善服务，提高服务质量并降低收费。竞争会导致这种结果，而聪明的消费者也会拒绝上当，从而迫使运营商保持低价，提高不同系统间的兼容性。（例如，不同的运营商所产的手机能相互发送照片。）用户们还会想出更巧妙的方法来运用新技术，这会远远超出运营商和生产商们的想象。这将为人们提供全新的信息交流和共享的方式，这才是采用技术标准的最终目的。 新的一年，让我们拭目以待。
