Finding Ways To Surmount The Great Wall
There's more than one road into China.
With all the talk of China's emergence as an economic power, investors have been clamoring for a way to make a buck off China's ascendancy.
For many investors, the most obvious route has been to buy China-centric mutual funds and U.S.-traded shares known as American depositary receipts of the 40-odd Chinese companies that trade in the U.S. (including many on the Pink Sheets, where trading is less liquid). But it can be limiting. With ADRs, you're generally limited to the bigger, more well-known names.
Another increasingly popular way into China is through the back door -- by investing along China's periphery, buying companies from Japan through New Zealand that benefit from China's growth. Along with providing a greater diversity of companies and industries to choose from, this approach can be safer since you're often investing in more stable, transparent markets and in companies with long histories of success. This could eliminate the political risk of the Chinese government's meddling in corporate affairs.
"There was a time when you made as much buying Texas Instruments as you did with IBM because Texas Instruments was a big supplier to IBM," says Jim Rogers , the famed international investor. "You buy companies that are supplying what someone else needs to grow. That's what the periphery of China is about."
Of course, this isn't a risk-free strategy. Asia's developing economies are prone to nasty tumbles that can pull down stocks and leave a portfolio devastated, even if the Chinese economy remains robust. Even developed economies, such as Japan and New Zealand, struggle through long funks that can destroy your investments. Moreover, many of these stocks have begun to move higher already, meaning you've missed some big early gains. And, of course, there are currency risks, even though a weakening dollar generally boosts the value of investments overseas.
Still, investing along China's periphery can be attractive "because China is the locomotive pulling all these other economies in the region," says David Darst, chief investment strategist for Morgan Stanley's Individual Investor Group.
Korean and Japanese firms are selling equipment and heavy machinery to help China build office and apartment buildings and factories. Taiwanese firms are hawking chemicals and technology equipment. Hong Kong retailers are magnets for Chinese consumers. Singapore bankers are primed to benefit from China's banking reforms as well as the emerging middle class. (Companies from all over the world are setting up shop in China to benefit from its cheap labor.)
In short, companies across the Pacific Rim are servicing -- and often profiting -- from China's needs in numerous ways. Goldman Sachs has identified nearly 400 such companies.
The trick is figuring out where to invest. While not exhaustive, this guide, based on interviews with portfolio managers and investment strategists, is designed to give investors ideas on how to think about China investments.
Hong Kong, one of Asia's most developed and transparent markets, remains the most direct route into mainland China. Numerous Chinese companies list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and many Hong Kong companies do tons of business on the mainland. Just about every Hong Kong bank has a mainland strategy, and long-standing Hong Kong banks are primed to play a leading role as mainland banks undertake needed reforms. Bank of East Asia Ltd., for example, has the most sophisticated branch network in China and is doing good business there already, says Mark Headley, co-manager of the Matthews Pacific Tiger fund, where half the Asian stocks have some China angle.
Shangri-La Asia Ltd. runs a string of hotels in Asia and across mainland China that are popular with business and leisure travelers. Barry Mannis, director of global product at Goldman Sachs, notes that as recently as 1998, 10% of total passenger arrivals in Asia, excluding Japan, were from travelers holding Chinese passports. As of August, the number was 30%. Hong Kong-based Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. is a well regarded brand and owns a stake in Dragonair, which operates throughout the mainland.
Hong Kong also is home to trading companies such as Li & Fung Ltd. and retailing conglomerates such as China Resources Enterprise Ltd. that are profiting from Chinese consumers' spending.
Outside Hong Kong, the bond with China grows more tenuous. But Singapore has Singapore Airlines Ltd. as well as banking giant DBS Group Holdings that, thanks to its 2001 acquisition of Hong Kong's Dao Heng bank, has a strong presence on the mainland. Also in Singapore: Want Want Holdings Ltd., a maker of leading brands of beverages and snack foods. Want Want's goodies are largely produced in China, widely distributed there and generally dominant in their categories. Shipping companies also are prospering, including Singapore's Neptune Orient Lines Ltd.
Japan's Shima Seiki Manufacturing Ltd. is a world leader in the high-tech knitting machines that textile makers are buying for new factories in China, says Eric Ritter, portfolio manager for the Driehaus International Discovery Fund. Mr. Ritter recently sold Shima Seiki because the shares have moved up so much, "but it's an example of what to look for."
Japan's Hitachi Construction Machinery Co. is a leader in excavating equipment. Korea's Hanwha Chemical Corp. and LG Chem Ltd. are among the companies benefiting from China's immense appetite for chemicals. And many Australian mining companies such as BHP Billiton Ltd. and Rio Tinto Ltd. are profiting from big price increases for metals such as nickel, iron ore and copper, which Chinese industry is gobbling up.
Some of these companies trade in the U.S. as ADRs. Others would have to be purchased through a brokerage firm like Charles Schwab & Co. that has an overseas trading desk. If you go that route, you'll often pay more for the shares than local investors since brokerage firms build in their costs for currency translations and transactions overseas.
One way around that: Open an account overseas, often available online. While that is certainly more time-consuming, it provides direct access to foreign stocks and mutual funds unavailable in the U.S.
Not all overseas firms work with U.S. clients, though. The best bet: email online brokerage firms overseas and ask about their policy on opening accounts for U.S. investors. Singapore's Kim Eng Holdings Ltd., for instance, accepts U.S. investors and through its Ongline.com unit provides Internet access to trading in Singapore, Hong Kong, Thailand and Malaysia.
投资中国的“曲线救国”策略
条条大路通中国。
面对大量有关中国即将崛起成为经济强国的言论，投资者一直都在急切地寻找机会以便从中国的崛起中分一杯羹。
对于许多投资者而言，最为显而易见的投资途径是买进以中国资产为核心的共同基金以及在美国市场交易的中国40多家公司的美国存托凭证（包括许多在场外交易粉红单市场交易的股票，这个市场的流动性稍差）。但这种投资方式的范围有限，投资者在投资这类美国存托凭证时，接触到的通常只是一些较大的知名公司。
另一个日渐兴起的投资方式是从中国的“后门”进行投资，即投资中国周边市场，买进新西兰、日本等从中国发展中得到实惠地区公司的股票。这种方式不仅能为投资者提供更多可供选择的公司和产业类型，而且还更为安全，因为投资者通常投资的都是更为稳定和透明的市场，以及那些长期以来业绩良好的公司。这种方式还能消除因中国政府干预公司事务而产生的政治风险。
著名国际投资家吉姆?罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)称，某些时候你买进德州仪器(Texas Instruments)股票的数量会和买进国际商业机器公司(IBM)的一样多，因为前者是IBM的一个大供应商。你会买进那些生产其他公司发展所需产品公司的股票，这也就是要投资中国周边市场的原因。
当然，没有哪种投资策略不存在风险。亚洲发展中国家的经济较易出现危机，这可能会拖累股票下挫，从而令投资血本无归，即便此时的中国经济依然保持强劲势头。即使是像日本和新西兰这样的发达国家也在长期的经济衰退中挣扎，对它们的投资也可能会付之东流。另外，许多此类股票已经开始上扬，这意味著投资者已错过了早期获得较大收益的机会。当然，这其中还存在汇率风险，虽然美元疲软通常会提升海外投资的价值。
不过摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)旗下Individual Investor Group的首席投资策略师大卫?达尔斯特(David Darst)称，投资中国周边市场依然颇具吸引力，因为中国是拉动这一地区其他经济体发展的火车头。
韩国和日本企业向中国出售设备和重型机械，用于修建写字楼、住宅楼和工厂。台湾公司则积极抢占中国大陆的化工和技术设备市场。而香港的零售商则对大陆的消费者颇具吸引力。新加坡的银行家们也摩拳擦掌，希望能从中国银行业改革以及新崛起的中产阶级身上获利。（来自世界各地的企业纷纷在中国设厂，以充分利用当地廉价的劳动力。）
简而言之，环太平洋地区的企业都在为中国各个方面提供服务，同时也从中受益。高盛(Goldman Sachs)确认像利丰有限公司(Li & Fung Ltd)这样的贸易企业，以及像华润创业有限公司(China Resources Enterprise Ltd.)这样的零售综合企业都从中国大陆的消费者身上获取了不少的利润。
除了香港之外，其他地区与中国大陆之间的依存度正日益减弱。不过，新加坡的新加坡航空公司(Singapore Airlines Ltd.)以及在2001年收购香港道亨银行(Dao Heng bank)的银行业巨头星展集团(DBS Group Holdings)在中国大陆占据较大的市场。另外，新加坡生产领先品牌饮料和休闲食品的旺旺控股(Want Want Holdings)的大部分产品都是在中国大陆生产，在大陆有广泛的市场，并且占据著同类产品市场的主导地位。船运公司的业务也蒸蒸日上，其中包括新加坡的海皇轮船有限公司(Neptune Orient Lines Ltd.)。
Driehaus International Discovery Fund的投资组合经理埃里克?里特(Eric Ritter)称，日本的岛精机制作所(Shima Seiki Manufacturing Ltd.)是世界高科技编织机生产领域的佼佼者，中国大陆的纺织品企业在设立新厂时都会购买它的产品。里特近期减持了岛精机制作所的股票，原因是该股的涨幅过大，但他说，投资者就应选择这一类型的股票。
日本的日立建机(Hitachi Construction Machinery Co.)是挖掘设备的领先企业。韩国的Hanwha Chemical Corp.和LG Chem Ltd.也从中国巨大的化工市场受益匪浅。同时，澳大利亚许多采矿企业，比如BHP Billiton Ltd.和Rio Tinto Ltd.都因镍、铁矿石和铜等价格的大幅上扬而获利颇丰，因为中国大陆工业对上述产品的消耗量十分巨大。
在上述公司中，有一些公司在美国发行了美国存托凭证，而对于其他公司的股票，投资者需要通过像嘉信理财(Charles Schwab & Co.)这样在海外市场拥有证券交易席位的证券公司进行交易。如果投资者是通过这种方式投资，其买卖股票的费用通常会高于当地的投资者，因为证券公司需要将汇率换算成本及海外交易成本计算在内。
有一种方式可以避免这种情况的发生：开立海外市场帐户。这通常在网上就可办理。尽管这种方式肯定会耗费更多的时间，但投资者可以直接交易在美国接触不到的外国股票和共同基金。
但不是所有的海外证券公司都会接受美国客户。最好的办法是给国外的网上证券公司发电子邮件，询问它们对于美国投资者开立帐户的相关规定。比如，新加坡的Kim Eng Holdings Ltd.就会为美国投资者开立帐户，并通过其Ongline.com部门为投资者提供网上交易服务。投资者可以通过该途径投资新加坡、香港、泰国和马来西亚市场。
