Gasoline Suppliers Could Gain As China Bolsters Pump Prices
BEIJING -- Chinese and foreign oil companies are racing to fill a bigger share of China's gas tanks.
China's gasoline market is among the fastest-growing in the world, as millions of affluent Chinese buy new cars. But even as the amount of gasoline sold has surged, profit margins haven't. Policy makers, afraid of sparking inflation, have capped fuel prices, causing some oil companies to incur losses.
That could change soon. Top officials have pledged to raise prices at the pump as part of a wider effort to encourage conservation and raise energy efficiency. China is also set to lift restrictions on wholesale fuel distribution by foreign companies by year-end as part of its World Trade Organization commitments. That could spell good news for BP PLC, Total SA, Royal Dutch Shell Corp., Exxon Mobil Corp. and other foreign companies seeking to sell here.
It remains unclear when and by how much the Chinese government will lift gasoline and diesel prices. David Hurd, a Beijing-based analyst for Deutsche Bank, says the government might raise gasoline prices 20%, while keeping diesel prices unchanged. Higher diesel prices could hurt China's tractor-driving farmers, whom China's leaders have made a priority to help as part of their effort to narrow the wealth gap between coast and countryside.
The volume of diesel sold in China is double that of gasoline sold, Mr. Hurd says.
A bidding war early this month for a stake in a small, independent chain of gasoline stations in Shanghai underscores the interest in the market. China National Offshore Oil Corp. -- the country's biggest offshore oil producer by volume but a distant laggard in terms of retail gasoline sales -- outbid several rivals for the chain of 22 stations. China National Offshore Oil is the state-owned parent of Hong Kong-listed Cnooc Ltd.
China's retail gasoline market is dominated by China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., known as Sinopec, which owns 56% of the gasoline stations in China, says energy consultancy Cambridge Energy Research Associates. Sinopec directly owns 27,000 gas stations across the country, and either partly owns or franchises an additional 4,000.
Sinopec sells enormous volumes of fuel, but has made scant profits because of the government's price restrictions. It has been hit harder than some of its competitors because it must buy lots of crude oil at high international prices and then sell refined products at a loss under the Chinese price-cap system. At the end of last year, the government gave Sinopec a subsidy of 10 billion yuan ($1.24 billion) to make up for the heavy losses it sustained.
Raising prices would help Sinopec improve its profit margins. But analysts say the company doesn't have the cash to expand operations, nor does it have the crude-oil supplies to feed many more stations.
"Now our goal is not to take up more gas stations in China...I think we've got enough," says Wang Jiming, Sinopec's vice chairman of the board. "Now our goal is to focus on how to improve per-station efficiency."
Hong Kong-listed Sinopec's stock has risen about 50% since the end of 2005 amid expectations of price changes. Sinopec shares rose 1.7% to HK$4.53 (58 U.S. cents) yesterday, up eight Hong Kong cents each.
Leading rival China National Petroleum Corp., known as PetroChina and with 24% of the retail market, could be in a stronger position to grow. The company is China's largest crude-oil producer by volume, and it pocketed huge profits last year by selling crude, whose prices have doubled since 2003. PetroChina's fat coffers and bigger oil reserves make it easier for it to expand in the retail gasoline market, analysts say.
PetroChina expects to start getting 200,000 barrels a day from a new pipeline from its field in Kazakhstan starting in May, according to the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Agency. Huang Meilong, an analyst with Shenyin Wanguo Securities Co. in Shanghai, said PetroChina is more likely to buy up independent retailers to expand. Hong Kong-listed PetroChina rose five Hong Kong cents to HK$7.60 yesterday.
Foreign competitors also could benefit from the market overhaul, and many have plans to expand. Current rules limit the number of wholly owned gas stations foreign companies can have in China, effectively forcing them to partner with either PetroChina or Sinopec. But few are willing to pass up a chance to expand their presence in such a fast-growing market.
Foreign companies could make bigger profits once China permits them to distribute their own fuel to gas stations. Industry executives are hopeful that Beijing might further open the market to foreign players in a bid to foster more competition and help drive down gas prices.
Exxon Mobil, which operates 19 stations under the Esso brand in southern China, is working with Sinopec and Saudi Aramco to develop a sales-and-marketing joint venture that would eventually have 600 stations in the southern province of Fujian. That project was announced in 2004, but a formal agreement has yet to be signed.
France-based Total has announced plans to roll out 500 stations over six years in two joint ventures. BP is in the process of establishing 1,000 stations in joint ventures with PetroChina and Sinopec, while Royal Dutch Shell is rolling out 500 stations.
"The rise of the middle class, the rise of passenger-car vehicles -- all means this will be an increasingly important market in transportation fuels," says Terry Blaney, director of Shell China's downstream business.
汽油涨价可能是条好消息
中国和外国石油公司都在积极努力，争取在中国庞大的汽油市场占据更多份额。
中国是全球发展最迅速的汽油市场之一，数百万富裕起来的中国人购买了私家车。但是，虽然汽油销量激增，利润率却没有随著水涨而船高。政策制定者担心引发通货膨胀，一直限制燃油价格水平，让石油公司蒙受了损失。
这种局面很快就有可能改变。政府高级官员们承诺提高零售价格，并采取更多措施鼓励节能并提高能源利用率。中国还将在年底前向外资开放成品油批发市场，这是当年加入世界贸易组织(World Trade Organization, 简称WTO)的承诺之一。这对英国石油公司(BP PLC)、法国道达尔公司(Total SA)、荷兰皇家壳牌有限公司(Royal Dutch Shell Corp.)、埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil Corp.)等力图开拓中国市场的外国石油公司来说可是一条大好消息。
但目前还不清楚中国政府何时才会提高汽油和柴油的价格上限，提高幅度是多少。德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)驻北京的分析师大卫?赫德(David Hurd)估计，政府可能会将汽油价格上调20%，但维持柴油价格不变。如果柴油价格上调，那些使用农用拖拉机的农民就会受到影响，而国家领导人屡屡提及的缩小沿海和内陆城市贫富差距的内容之一就是帮助农民增加收入。
赫德说，中国的柴油销量足足是汽油销量的两倍。
本月初，围绕上海市一家小型独立连锁加油站部分股权的竞购战彰显了汽油市场的热度。中国海洋石油总公司(China National Offshore Oil Corp.)最后击败数家竞争对手，得到了这家共有22座连锁店的加油站。中国海洋石油总公司是中国产量最大的国有海上石油生产商，但汽油零售业务的规模远远落后于同行，旗下中国海洋石油（中国）有限公司(CNOOC Ltd., 简称：中海石油)在香港上市。
中国石油化工股份有限公司(China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., 简称Sinopec, 或：中国石化)占据著中国汽油市场的主导地位，能源顾问机构Cambridge Energy Research Associates的数据显示，中国石化占中国汽油市场的56%。中国石化直接拥有的27,000个加油站遍布中国各地，部分拥有或通过特许协议经营的加油站还有4,000个。
中国石化出售了大量燃油，但盈利微薄，原因就是政府的限价措施。由于必须从国际市场高价购买大量原油，然后又遵循国内的限价政策在国内市场亏本出售炼油产品，中国石化承受的打击超过了部分同行。去年年底，为弥补中国石化出现的巨额亏损，政府向它提供了人民币100亿元（12.4亿美元）的补贴。
价格上调能帮助中国石化改善利润率，但分析师们认为该公司没有扩大业务所需的现金，也没有增加加油站数量所需的原油供应。
“现在我们的目标不是收购更多加油站……我觉得现有的已经足够了，”中国石化副董事长王基铭说，“我们现在的目标是集中精力提高加油站的单位效率。”
价格政策有望调整的预期已经推动中国石化香港上市子公司的股价在2005年年底的基础上飙升约50%，该股周三上涨0.08港元至4.53港元（0.58美元），涨幅1.7%。
中国石化最主要的竞争对手──中国石油天然气集团公司(China National Petroleum Corp., 简称PetroChina, 或：中国石油）可能处在一个更好的增长地位，该公司在零售市场占据24%的占有率。中国石油是国内最大的原油生产商，去年借助原油销售赚取了丰厚利润。分析师们认为，凭借充足的现金和较多的原油储备，中国石油更容易扩张其零售汽油网络。
美国能源部(Department of Energy)下属能源情报署(Energy Information Agency)数据显示，中国石油在哈萨克斯坦的油田有望从今年5月份开始日输送原油20万桶。申银万国证券(Shenyin Wanguo Securities Co.)驻上海的分析师黄美龙认为，中国石油更有可能通过收购独立零售商的途径来扩张业务。旗下香港上市子公司的股价周三上涨0.05港元至7.60港元。
市场改革措施也将给不少准备拓展中国市场的外国石油公司带来许多好处。目前的政策限制了外国石油公司可全资拥有的加油站数量，迫使他们不得不与中国石油或者中国石化合作。但几乎没有哪家公司愿意放弃在如此迅猛增长的市场开展业务的一线之机。
一旦中国允许外国石油公司向加油站提供自己的石油产品，他们就会赚取更多利润。业内管理人士希望中国政府能向外国公司进一步开放国内市场，这样不但可以引入更多竞争，还能帮助压低汽油价格。
埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil)在中国南部经营著19家埃索(Esso)品牌的加油站，正在与中国石化和Saudi Aramco协商一项营销和销售合资项目，如果合资公司能够成立，就将在中国南部的福建省拥有600座加油站。这个项目的意向早在2004年就已经宣布了，但至今尚未签署正式协议。
法国的道达尔公司则宣布，计划通过两家合资企业在六年内拥有500座加油站。英国石油分别与中国石化和中国石油合作，正在逐步推进拥有1,000座加油站的目标。荷兰皇家壳牌的目标是500座。
壳牌中国下游业务主管布兰尼(Terry Blaney)说，中产阶级的兴起，私家车的普及，都意味著这将是一个越来越重要的车用油市场。
