Ben's opening gambit
When Ben Bernanke took over from Alan Greenspan as chairman of the Federal Reserve, he promised continuity. That was what he delivered yesterday. Mr Bernanke's first open market committee meeting as chairman ended just as Mr Greenspan's last meeting had done, with a quarter-point rate rise and the comment that "some further policy firming may be needed".
Two months on from Mr Greenspan's last meeting, this reaffirmation of the policy stance suggests that a further rise to 5 per cent in May is firmly on the cards, if not quite guaranteed. At that point, the Fed is likely to pause. Yet the reiteration of concerns about energy prices and resource utilisation caution against ruling out the possibility the Fed could go beyond 5 per cent.
As things stand, one more quarter-point rise should be enough. The Fed's preferred measure of core inflation has eased back to 1.8 per cent. That is at the upper end of what is traditionally considered the Fed's tolerance zone, but a level committee members seemed comfortable with when making individual forecasts last month. At 5 per cent, the policy rate would be on the restrictive side of neutral. Further tightening is already in the pipeline from past rate rises and a rise in long rates. Partly as a result, the Fed's central case is that growth will slow towards trend after a roaring first half, presumably accompanied by a softening housing market.
Yet in the absence of a very sharp hit from housing to consumption, the risks still look skewed to the upside. Energy and commodity prices continue to put pressure on input costs. The labour market is tight, with unemployment at 4.8 per cent. Global competition has helped restrain wage demands, but this might ease as the global output gap disappears with growth in Japan and Europe. Housing data remain mixed, with existing home sales rising in February as new home sales fell.
The statement gives only faint clues as to Mr Bernanke's longer term plans for the Fed. Added language about the expected path of growth underlines the fact that decisions will be driven by how current data affect forecasts, rather than the data points themselves. Beyond that, not much visible change.
Yet Mr Bernanke can surely not be satisfied with the linguistic contortions required to guide the market at this stage in the cycle. There will be no abrupt move to an inflation target. However, greater emphasis on the Fed's forecast could be an interim step. We know the committee talked about how it might better communicate its thinking to the market. This holds the seeds of bigger changes to come. The minutes will make interesting reading.
伯南克“透明”上任 (上)
当本?伯南克(Ben Bernanke)刚刚就任美联储(Fed)理事时，曾在一次演讲中开了个玩笑，暗示美联储能够从其他国家央行的运作中借鉴的一点，就是“要稍微有点儿颠覆性”。
3年过去了，这位曾经提倡颠覆传统观念的人已执掌美联储大权，而联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)3月28日会议的正式议程中包括这么一条――在沟通的透明度和清晰度方面，应该向国外（央行）学些什么。这是伯南克上任以来的首次联邦公开市场委员会会议。
在以往，这样的讨论简直是不可想象的。（当时人们）普遍认为，央行通过保密能够产生更大的影响力，令市场感到措手不及，并引发证券价格的急剧波动。然而，近几十年来，业内人士对于货币政策的看法发生了转变。
现代中央银行家认为，央行的重要性在于引导市场对于一段时期内政策利率走势的预期，反过来这又会对长期债券收益率和其它证券造成影响。
全球各国央行如今纷纷参与一种彬彬有礼的竞争，力图展示其出众的沟通技巧。英国《金融时报》前总编辑理查德?兰伯特(Richard Lambert)刚刚离开英国央行(Bank of England)货币政策委员会，他在最近一次演讲中表示，“这份工作的部分乐趣，就在于不同机构之间进行着一种文雅的比赛”，看哪家机构在战略和沟通方面最为清晰。
在艾伦?格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)担任主席的漫长时期内，美联储在提高开放程度方面取得了长足的进步。最近的例证包括：联邦公开市场委员会提前出版会议备忘录；2月份的货币政策报告提供了未来两年的经济预测，时间比以往更长；自2003年8月起，在会后发表的声明中，在谈及联邦基金利率可能的走向时，使用了具有前瞻性的措辞。
但是，尽管美联储的透明度已经有了很大的提高，它并没有起到表率作用。发表于最近一期 European Journal of Political Economy的一项研究发现，新西兰储备银行(Reserve Bank of New Zealand)、瑞典央行(Swedish Riksbank)和英国央行是全球透明度最高的中央银行；紧随其后的是加拿大央行(Bank of Canada)、欧洲央行(European Central Bank )和美联储；然后是澳大利亚联邦储备银行(Reserve Bank of Australia)、日本央行 (Bank of Japan)和瑞士央行(Swiss National Bank)。上述研究由蒂尔堡大学(Tilburg University)的西尔威斯特?埃亚芬格(Sylvester Eijffinger)和剑桥大学(Cambridge University)的彼得拉?杰拉特兹(Petra Geraats)共同完成。
