Market briefing --- Matt (slow)
The worst recovery
Interview: John Kerry Campaign---Altman, Roger---Economist
>> welcome back. it’s “world financial report.” i am matt nesto. recapping the day that was, and the short week on wall street.
>> the bush administration has seen the economy recoup all of of the jobs lost in the aftermath of the last election. democratic challenger john kerry says it’s still the worst recovery since the depression. will the economy be a deciding factor in november? roger altman is kerry’s top economic adviser and founder of the private equity firm―core partners and joins us with reaction to today’s jobs data. is this really truly the worst recovery as measured by what since the depression?%
>> first of all, today’s jobs report was a good one. everyone wants to see more jobs. this is good news today. but the whole picture since president bush took office is what you’re referring to and the truth is that we haven’t seen a weaker job performance for the entire 3 1/2 years since herbert hoover because the economy has lost two million jobs since he took office and at this rate he will be the first president since the great depression with jobs going down, no new jobs.
>> but people would say he inherited the recession, is that due to bad management or bad timing? what did bush do specifically to cause that loss of jobs?
>> every president has periods of economic strength and weakness. president clinton, for example, he served for eight years and had economic ups and downs as you will over an eight-year period but we saw 11 million new jobs in his first four years, 12.5 million new jobs in the second four years and there were ups and downs in the interim but that was the bottom line. the bottom line under president bush who has had ups and downs economically is down two million. but the second point is a broader one, which is the point about --
>> let’s answer my question. what did bush do to cause a loss of jobs? that’s the crux of your case, is it not, that under bush the economy has lost more jobs or performed as bad as it ever did since hoofer?
>> growth has been slow. that’s the the biggest single reason. we’ve had 29 months of recovery according to the national bureau of economic research since the economy left recession. if you look back since the end of the second world war, 60 years, growth in the 29 months has been the second slowest in 60 years over any such period of recovery so growth has been slow and that’s among many reasons, probably the single biggest reason, we’ve had poor job creation. the second reason, i think, would be that there’s been a very low level of overall confidence, confidence among investors, consumers and businesses. and the reason for that, in part, although there are many, is the gigantic budget deficit which we’ve seen under president bush which always undermines confidence and contrasts to the surpluses we saw under president clinton. i’d pick slow growth and huge deficits as two of the reasons.
>> we said since the election, but what we meant to say was since the recession, just to be clear. i put together a chart, also. this is consumer sentiment, the latest reading, going back to% -the carter administration.% -and you can see that red line that i put in means turnover in the white house. if you get below about 1975. clearly, the latest sentiment numbers for president bush have come down to about 90. but a long way away from that red third rail of white house eviction.
>> i think the more relevant test is what americans are saying about whether they think the country is on the right or wrong track or alternatively, whether they approve or disapproval of president bush’s handling of the economy. about 60% of americans say we’re on the wrong track and president bush’s approval rating on the economy is in the 40’s. so these are two important barometers.
>> what is the right track/wrong track? the economy is adding jobs, durable goods orders at 20-year highs, unemployment falling for 12 months, g.d.p. at 4.5%. i’m sorry, what would be the right track if that is not the right track?
>> i’m just telling you what the polls show. that’s a fact, not debatable.
>> people have your ear, though, they’re telling them the economy is on the wrong track. what is wrong about that?
>> with all due respect, i think you should ask americans why they are reporting, the pollsters, that they think the country’s on the wrong track. it’s a fact. if you want to know the answer to your own question, ask americans. if you want my answer, because i’m just giving you the results of the polls, it probably has to do with the fact that it’s harder to make ends meet for the average american family than it was when mr. bush took office. real income, meaning just inflation-adjusted income, for the average american family, is down about 1,500 since mr. bush took office. over the eight clinton years it rose $7,200. number two, several key indices of household wellbeing, gasoline costs, energy costs as a whole, tuition costs and healthcare costs are way up. gasoline has added 600 dollars to a family and schneck tuition tuition―healthcare and tuition costs are up significantly. that’s why americans may say we’re on the wrong track because it’s harder to make ends meet.
>> thank you very much, folks, roger altman, top economic adviser to john kerry. our next guest says the stronger-than-expected employment report makes it more likey the fed will raise rates.
