Mortgage REITs Suffer Now From Rising Rates, Not Later
Turbulence once again has hit the world of mortgage REITs, though the stocks could benefit from an interest-rate lift before the year is out.
Mortgage REITs are real-estate investment trusts that don't own property, like the best-known and bigger commercial-office ones do, but instead make or buy loans secured by real estate. Unlike finance companies and thrifts, they don't take deposits. Instead, many borrow money from broker dealers and other institutions for short periods, a month sometimes, pledging securities as collateral.
The companies are so interest-rate sensitive that they long have served as a useful economic bellwether -- they are buffeted by interest rates, home-buying and refinancing rates and, in some cases, fluctuations in borrowers' credit. And in past years, when interest rates moved sharply, many investors in this sector were clobbered.
Now, with interest rates gyrating once again, it is little surprise that bad news has hit. Industry standard Annaly Mortgage Management Inc. last week pointed investors to the low end of its third-quarter earnings target of 50 cents to 57 cents a share -- well below its second-quarter dividend of 60 cents a share. That prompted fears of a dividend cut and sent its shares down 12% from $20.49. In 4 p.m. New York Stock Exchange composite trading Thursday, they fetched $19.18, up 28 cents.
Then rival Thornburg Mortgage Inc. priced a $110.4 million secondary stock offering at $27.60 a share, only to see its share price tumble 15% in two days. Those shares stood at $24.38, up 21 cents, also on the Big Board Thursday.
But some investors and analysts say that certain stocks in the sector look positioned for rebounds, even if rates continue spiking. That's because some appear headed toward a sweet spot in the so-called yield curve, the spread between short- and longer-term rates.
For instance, New York-based Annaly, which owns $14.7 billion in mortgage-backed securities issued by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and other issuers with implied or explicit government backing, keeps two-thirds of its portfolio in adjustable or floating-rate assets, which will benefit if the economy continues to pick up steam, longer-term interest rates keep rising -- and short-term rates remain stable, as generally expected.
"A positive-sloping yield curve is a boon to mortgage REITs -- period," says Ian Goltra, director of research for Kensington Investment Group Inc., an Orinda, Calif., money-management firm and Annaly holder. Mr. Goltra says Kensington had sold Annaly until the recent dip, when it became a buyer again. He declined to provide Kensington's current position in the stock. As of June 30, it owned 761,000 shares, according to FactSet Research Systems Inc. He adds: "You can feel a lot of volatility. We're keeping a little powder dry."
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note peaked at 4.44% on July 29, from its low of 3.11% on June 13, a swing of 1.33 percentage points. The 10-year yield Thursday was 4.23%. Short-term rates, meanwhile, have held steady, and that's especially important, because sharp jumps in short-term rates have been behind many mortgage REITs' blow-ups in the past. As for increases in the longer-term rates, a worry on this front is that they cause book-value losses; the value of fixed-income securities usually moves in the opposite direction of yields. Annaly holds one of the biggest portfolios of fixed-rate securities in the sector, at a third of its total book. It says its book value fell about 2% to $17.35 a share in the second quarter, from $17.72 in the first quarter.
Mortgage REITs also are grappling with the aftereffects of the recent refinancing boom that accompanied the steep drop in interest rates beginning in early 2001. Annaly, among others, bought mortgage-backed securities at a premium to face value, expecting to amortize the cost of the premiums over time as the interest and principal rolled in. But the frenzied refinancing led to record-high mortgage prepayments, which caused Annaly to write off the value of the premiums sooner than expected. In the first half, the company booked $106 million in amortization, about what it did in all of 2002.
And since refinancings take a few months to close, the high expense is expected to continue this quarter. But after that, Michael A. J. Farrell, Annaly's chairman, chief executive and president, says that riding a steepening yield curve is relatively easy. "You can go back to having my 10-year-old daughter do it," he says.
Michael Hughes , a Merrill Lynch & Co. specialty-finance analyst, adds: "Oddly, where rates are going is very positive for Annaly -- except for this quarter." In its most recent Annaly report, Merrill notes that it was a manager of Annaly's most recent stock offering of the past three years and received compensation for investment-banking services from Annaly in the past year.
So far this year, through Wednesday, mortgage REITs have posted an average total return -- stock price plus dividends -- of 27.98%, after returning an eye-popping 31% during 2002. That far outpaces the more numerous and larger property-owning equity REITs, which have returned 18.2% this year and 5% last year, according to the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts. They have trounced the broader market.
The group actually is a grab bag of companies with widely differing strategies. Annaly focuses on buying government-backed securities, much like rivals Anworth Mortgage Asset Corp., Santa Monica, Calif., and MFA Mortgage Investments Inc., New York. But Thornburg originates its own loans, as does Impac Mortgage Holdings Inc., Newport Beach, Calif., and American Home Mortgage Holdings, Melville, N.Y.
"经济风向标"受到利率波动冲击
按揭类房地产投资信托基金(Mortgage REIT)抵押贷款行业又一次受到剧烈冲击，虽然这类公司的股票在2003年划上句号之前有可能因为利率上升而受益。
Mortgage REITs是一种房地产投资信托基金。像一些规模较大知名的写字楼信托基金一样，Mortgage REITs本身并不拥有房地产资产，但它提供或购买用房地产作抵押的贷款。与金融公司和储蓄银行不同的是，Mortgage REITs不吸收存款，但许多这类公司将证券作为抵押物，从经纪公司和其他金融机构进行短期（比如1个月期的）融资。
由于Mortgage REITs对利率极为敏感，长期以来它们被看作是一种有效的经济风向标。利率、购房贷款利率、再融资利率，甚至还有贷款人信用的不稳定都会使它们受到打击。过去几年，利率的大幅波动曾令许多Mortgage REITs行业的投资者一败涂地。
而眼下，由于市场利率再次大幅震荡，Mortgage REITs业受到冲击也就不足为怪了。上周，该行业的标杆企业Annaly Mortgage Management Inc.预计，公司第三季度每股收益将位于50-57美元预期的低端，远低于该公司第二季度60美分的派息水平。投资者因此担心，派息将下调。而该股股价收次消息影响从20.49美元下跌了12%。昨日下午4时，纽约证交所该股收盘上涨28美分，至19.18美元。
该公司的竞争对手Thornburg Mortgage Inc.将一宗价值1.104亿美元的大股东转售的交易定价为每股27.60美元，两天内股价就缩水15%。该股昨日上涨21美分，收于24.38美元。
但某些投资者和分析师认为，即使利率持续上升，这类股票中的一部分已具备反弹势能。
例如，Annaly持有147亿美元的抵押贷款担保证券，发行方为联邦国民抵押贷款协会(Fannie Mae, FNM, 简称：房利美)、联邦住房贷款抵押公司(Federal Home Loan Mortage Corporation, Freddie Mac)或其他有直接或间接政府背景的公司。Annaly将三分之二的证券投资放在利率可调整或可浮动的资产上。如果经济持续复苏，长期利率将继续上升，短期利率将像人们普遍预计的那样保持稳定，那么这些投资将获利。 Annaly的股东之一、货币管理公司Kensington Investment Group Inc.的研究部门主管Ian Goltra表示，正向倾销的收益率曲线对Mortgage REITs而言将是它们的福音。Goltra称，Kensington此前一直在抛售Annaly的股票，直到股价下探至近期低位时才开始重新买入。他拒绝透露Kensington目前对Annaly的持仓量。根据FactSet Research Systems Inc.提供的数据，至6月30日时，Kensington持有761,000股Annaly的股票。Goltra表示，该股的波动性很大。
7月29日，10年期美国国债的收益率从6月13日的3.11%低点攀升至4.44%的高点，上升了1.33个百分点；周三收于4.23%。同时，短期国债收益率持稳。这一点很重要，因为短期利率大幅上扬是过去导致多次Mortgage REITs受到冲击的原因。而较长期限的利率上扬则会引发债券票面价值缩水。
Annaly在该行业中持有最大的固定利率证券组合之一，所占用的资金是其帐面资产总额的三分之一。Annaly说，第二季度其帐面价值下跌了2%至每股17.35美元，而第一季度时是17.72美元。
Mortgage REITs还在设法应对与近期的再融资热产生的负面效应。在这股再融资热潮中，市场利率自2001年初以来已大幅下降。
Annaly曾以高于面值的价格购买了抵押担保证券，当时他们希望随著利息和本金滚滚而来，逐步摊销溢价买进时的成本。但随著再融资热潮一浪高过一浪，抵押业务的预付款项也达到了创纪录的规模，Annaly不得不提早冲销掉溢价部分的价值。上半年该公司计入的摊销达1.06亿美元，基本达到了2002年全年的摊销规模。
由于再融资活动需要历时数月才会结束，因此预计本季度还将发生高额费用。不过，Annaly的董事长、首席执行长暨总裁Michael A. J. Farrell说，收益率曲线趋陡使他们相对容易些，就像顺著斜坡下滑，他开玩笑说，就连他的小女儿也能做得到。
美林公司专项金融业务分析师Michael Hughes说，除了本季度，利率的变动一向对Annaly都很有利。美林在近期有关Annaly的报告中提到，Annaly前不久进行了三年来的一次募股，美林是这次募股的经办人，它在过去一年中曾为Annaly提供过投资银行服务。
今年截至周三，Mortgage REITs的总体回报率（包括来自股价变动和派息的收益）平均为27.98%，而在2002年，平均回报率曾回升至31%。 据全美房地产信托投资协会(National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts)的资料，Mortgage REITs今年的数字远高于数量更多且规模更大的拥有房地产的权益类房地产投资信托基金公司的回报水平，这类REIT今年的回报率为18.2%，去年仅为5%。但他们都高于整体市场的水平。
抵押贷款类REIT领域聚集著各具特色的公司，它们采取的经营策略也五花八门。Annaly主要购买政府担保的债券，这一点与其竞争对手Anworth Mortgage Asset Corp.和
MFA Mortgage Investments Inc.很相像。而像Thornburg、Impac Mortgage Holdings Inc.和American Home Mortgage Holdings等公司则是自己发放贷款。
