G.D.P.
>> the state of the u.s. housing market is one focus of economic reports coming out this week am we’ll get the july figure on home resales tomorrow morning from the national association of realtors. economist natural bloomberg survey expect they fell from the record pace set in june. on wednesday, look for the government’s report on sales of new homes. they likely showed―slowed, i should say, for a second straight month. that same day, the labor department will report on durable goods orders for last month. our survey suggests that they rose for a second month in a row. thursday we get the initial jobless claims data for the week. our survey suggests unemployment lines got a little longer, as you see there. friday, watch for a revise the government customer of second quarter economic growth. economists expect it to be down .3 of a point from the original 3% estimate. plus, friday we’ll bring the university of michigan’s final measure of consumer sentiment for the month of august. our survey suggests no change from the preliminary reading of 94.0. well, the u.s. budget deficit is expected to reach a record $445 billion this fiscal year, and neither president bush nor his democratic challenger, senator john kerry, are presenting ways to tackle it. yet how the government handles its money is becoming a more popular topic, at least judging by a new book by blackstone group chairman pete peterson much his book, “running on empty,” is number 11 on the “new york times” bestseller list. the republican echoing democrats, like robert rubin, says the growing deficit will eventually lead to higher interest rates, less u.s. investment, and a falling dollar. still, president bush and senator kerry said at recent campaign stops that they would not ask americans to make sacrifices that would cut the deficit.
>> i will never privatize social security. i will not cut the benefits. and i will not raise the retirement age in this country. period.
>> we don’t need to be raising taxes on the american people right now. these taxes ought to be low to keep the economy growing.
>> a bipartisan budget watch dog group says neither candidate has a credible plan for reducing the deficit.
>> president bush wants to make the task cuts permanent. senator kerry has mentioned a health care initiative. these are very expensive items that make it unlike that will you’re going to be able to achieve the goal of having the deficit in five years.
>> so what do voters say on this issue of the deficit? well, a pew research poll shows 1% of likely voters think the budget deficit is important compared to 7% in past elections. in terms of the numbers, some economists say the sheer size is not the right way to measure the deficit. at 3.8% of the nation’s go ahead go ahead, that’s where we’re at right now, 3.8% of g.d.p. it’s viewed well below the 5% level from the mid 1980’s. but with new spending on wars in iraq and afghanistan, the cost of homeland security also, some economists forecast that percentage will rise.
>> goldman sachs, the concord coalition, our own numbers, they’re all suggesting budget deficits of 3% to 4% of g.d.p. as far as you can see over the next decade, and then the situation gets much worse. in other words, the next decade is the good part.
>> he says that when even more baby boomers start to retire, collecting social security and medicare checks may eat up more than 10% of g.d.p. well, in world and national news
