China faces no imminent inflation risks despite money supply rise - analysts
China faces no imminent risk of inflation, even though rising money supply and fixed-asset investments over the years have led to price hikes in some basic raw materials, analysts said.
Central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan has stirred the inflation debate -- even though domestic prices generally remain soft -- by saying that China should act to curb upward price pressures early ""rather than taking measures when inflation signs are all too clear"".
Economist Fan Gang has added his voice to the debate, noting that prices of steel, coal and some petrochemical products have soared since the second half of last year.
But Li Mingliang, an economist at Haitong Securities, challenged their views saying it is too early to worry about inflation, as oversupplies of most goods remain a more immediate concern.
""China is an integral part of the global community. How could it be possible for the country to experience inflation alone while the rest of the world is weighed down by deflation?"" Li asked.
A market survey conducted by China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) earlier in the year showed that 85.5 pct of the country's 600 major commodities would be in oversupply in the first half.
Wang Lianchuang, an analyst with Southern Securities, supported Li's view, citing CPI figures from the NBS.
China's consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.6 pct from a year earlier in the first half, with the monthly CPI figures in April-June up 0.1 pct, 0.3 pct and 0.3 pct, respectively, year on year.
But Wang noted the month-on-month figures were down 0.2 pct, 0.7 pct and 1.2 pct, respectively.
He said the growth of industrial ex-factory prices also slowed in the past three months, with prices for April, May and June up 3.62 pct, 1.96 pct and 1.34 pct, respectively, from a year earlier.
Still, both economists raised concerns about the price hikes in some materials such as steel, which they said stemmed from the rapid growth in the money supply and fixed asset investments.
Although the central bank has been calling for a stable monetary policy, money supply has risen steadily in recent years, with M2 up 12.3 pct in 2000, up 14.4 pct in 2001 and up 16.8 pct in 2002.
Fixed-asset investments have also been on the rise, with the figure up by 16.1 pct to 4.32 trln yuan in 2002, the highest annual growth rate since 1996.
Fixed-asset investments were up 31.1 pct year-on-year to 1.93 trln yuan in the first half, up 9.6 percentage points year-on-year, with the growth rate for the full-year is expected to exceed 16 pct.
Sudden bursts of investment have created other problems as well, such as wasteful projects in the infrastructure, property and other sectors, which Haitong Securities' Li said poses a more imminent danger to the economy than inflation.
""Even some second and third-tier cities are building subways, and around 80 so-called 'pharmaceutical centres' have been slated for construction around the country to boost local economies and embellish the resumes of government officials,"" he said.
Neither analyst expects the central bank to rein in the growth in the money supply or fixed asset investment in an abrupt way anytime soon as economic growth depends on them.
""The government simply cannot afford an annual GDP growth rate of less than seven pct, as a cooling economy will give rise to other social issues, such as unemployment or even upheaval,"" said Haitong's Li.
分析员: 中国无实时通胀风险
分析员表示，尽管近年来中国货币供应与固定资产投资增长导致一些基本生产数据与原材料价格上涨，但中国并未面临通胀风险。
中国人民银行行长周小川日前警告称，中国应该开始采取行动控制价格上涨压力，而不是等到通货膨胀迹像明确显现时才开始采取措施。
经济学家樊纲则表示，去年下半年以来，钢材、煤炭与一些石化产品价格已经较大幅度地上涨，有关方面必须小心谨慎。
但海通证券分析师李明亮表示，现在就担忧通胀似乎有点为时过早，供应过量还是目前问题的焦点。国家统计局上半年调查显示，在中国600种主要商品中，85.5％仍处于供应过量的状态。
李明亮表示，中国是世界经济的重要部份，在全球经济处于通货紧缩的情况下，中国怎么可能会面临通货膨胀的威胁呢？
南方证券的一位分析师以国家统计局数据支持李明亮的看法。
他说，虽然4月份消费物价指数（CPI）按年上升0.1％；5月份升0.3％；6月份升0.3％，但按月却分别下降0.2％，0.7％，及1.2％。
他还称，工业品出厂价格增速在过去的3个月内有所放缓，4月份价格按年上涨3.62％；5月份上涨1.96％；6月份价格上涨1.34％。
但两位分析师还是看到了诸如钢铁等生产原料的价格增长。他们相信这是由迅速增长的货币供给量及固定资产投资额引起。
虽然央行一直希望实行稳健的货币政策，但货币供给量在过去几年还是稳步增长，2000年M2广义货币上升12.3％；2001年上升14.4％；2002年上升16.8％。M1狭义货币2000年上升15.9％；2001年上升12.7％，2002年上升16.8％。
近年来，中国固定资产投资一直保持快速增长，2002年固定资产投资额达到4.32万亿元，按年增长16.1％，增速创1996年来新高。上半年中国固定资产投资额为1.93万亿元，按年增长31.1％，增速比去年同期加快9.6个百分点；预计全年的增速将超过16％。
李明亮说，投资膨胀引发了一些问题，如基础设施、房地产和其它产业的一拥而上和重复建设，这种情况对经济的杀伤力超过通货膨胀。
他警告说，部分中小城市都在建设地下铁路，全国有80余个地区要建设医药产业基地，这些举动据说是为了促进地方经济发展，同时可能含有粉饰政府官员政绩的目的。
但两位分析师都预计，央行不会立即减少货币供应和固定资产投资，因为他们都是经济增长的重要助推器。
他们称，政府希望经济增速保持在7％以上，如果经济增速低于这一水平可能导致就业形势严峻，出现社会动荡问题。
