In Japan, a Stock Market Climb
Gives Rise to Growing Optimism
Never mind that a positive answer has proved wrong time after time. Investors and strategists are once more asking the near-taboo question: Has Tokyo's stock market finally hit bottom?
The Nikkei 225 Stock Average has declined during the course of more than 13 years to less than a fifth of its 1989 bubble-economy peak to a 20?-year low of 7607.88 on April 28. On Tuesday, it closed up 2.2% at 9033.00, its highest level in six months. Though the gains might not continue, a survey of leading strategists last week by the financial industry daily Nikkei Kinyu Shimbun showed that a clear majority thought the worst was over.
"I don't know how long it will continue rising," says Naoki Kamiyama, equity strategist in Morgan Stanley's Tokyo branch. "But I'm pretty sure it won't dip below 8000 again."
There are plenty of reasons for continued pessimism, though. In nominal terms, Japan's gross domestic product shrank from a peak of ￥521 trillion ($4.429 trillion) in 1997 to ￥499 trillion last year. That's because of deflation: The General Consumer Price Index has fallen every year since 1999. Producer prices have been sliding for an entire decade. Deflation is "bad for equities in general because earnings are nominal, not real," says Garry Evans, equity strategist at HSBC Securities (Japan). What's more, "it's very hard to get sales growth."
Nonetheless, the stock market has been rising steadily for six weeks. That's partly because it often follows the trend on Wall Street; indeed, foreign investors have driven the rally. But there are other reasons, intrinsic to Japan, that explain the rise in share prices.
First, analysts say Japanese shares are cheap. Stocks have been such a bad investment during the past decade that investors wanting to avoid currency risk have instead poured money into Japanese government bonds. The yield on the 30-year issue is now below 1%, while the benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond yielded a record low 0.43% on Wednesday last week. By now however, this preference for bonds has gone so far that by some measures it makes more sense to buy stocks even if they don't rise. Japanese companies are notoriously tight-fisted with dividends, but since July 2002, corporate dividends have consistently yielded more than 10-year Japanese government bonds for the first time since 1955 (though there was a brief crossover in 1998).
"From the investor perspective there is not much to be made in capital gains," says Kathy Matsui, Goldman Sachs's Japanese equity strategist. So, "investors are looking for companies that can retain income....The market is cheap. Therefore there is some upside opportunity."
Second, many Japanese companies have learned to cope with deflation. Some can do this by maintaining revenue growth. The auto industry, for example, is increasingly selling to overseas markets. Others can maintain prices because their sectors are protected and deflation is relatively weak. Service industries that are still heavily regulated and unexposed to foreign competition have reported healthy revenue growth during the past year. That includes medical services, job outsourcing, education and nursing care. Investors are looking for "companies that even in this deflation are seeing some top-line growth," says Ms. Matsui of Goldman Sachs.
In addition, Japanese corporations have gradually reduced their debt. Bank lending fell 4.7% in May from a year earlier, the 65th consecutive month of decline. According to HSBC strategist Mr. Evans, bank lending was eight times operating profit until about 1990, but rose to a peak of 20 times in 1998, as debt increased and profits fell. Now it's back to 12 times operating profit, and at this rate would return to equilibrium levels in six years. "Profits are up because of restructuring, and debt has fallen as firms cut [capital expenditure]," he says.
A third reason the Nikkei might not fall below April's low again still hasn't gained mainstream acceptance -- though it has supporters: Japan's financial authorities could be on the way to sorting out the country's substantial underlying problems of bad debt and deflation.
Under new governor Toshihiko Fukui, the Bank of Japan is showing willingness to try out unorthodox monetary policy to reinflate the economy. A week ago, the central bank announced it would buy junk-grade corporate debt, the first time a modern central bank had made such a move. Since Mr. Fukui took over, the bank also has become more aggressive in implementing other policies to increase the money supply and thus stimulate business activity.
What's more, the government's recent $17 billion bailout of Resona Holdings could be the turning point for Japan's troubled banks because it indicates that banking minister Heizo Takenaka is serious about cleaning up the banks' balance sheets, analysts say. Mr. Kamiyama of Morgan Stanley says the exit or downsizing of weak banks -- as well as companies in other sick industries such as construction and retail -- could improve these sectors during the next year or two.
"This is out of consensus, but I am bullish," says Mr. Kamiyama. "I am positive about the Takenaka plan."
日本股市前景真的不容乐观吗？
如果肯定的回答被一次又一次证明是错误的，请不要介意。
投资者和策略师再一次提出了近乎忌讳的问题：日本股市已经触底了吗？
在过去13年多的时间里，日经225指数一路走低，直至4月28日创下7607.88点的20年半低点，还不到1989年日本泡沫经济高峰时创下峰值的1/5。周二，日经指数收盘上涨2.2%至9033.00点，为6个月来的高点。
虽然该涨势可能不会延续，但上周财经媒体《Nikkei Kinyu Shimbun》对知名策略师的调查显示，大多数人认为日本股市的最低潮已经过去。
摩根士坦利(Morgan Stanley)驻东京的股票策略师Naoki Kamiyama说：“我不知道股市的涨势将延续多久，但我肯定不会再度跌破8000点。”
然而，还有很多理由足以让人们继续感到悲观。1997年，日本的国内生产总值(GDP)为521万亿日元(4.429万亿美元)，去年则下降到499万亿日元，这主要是受通货紧缩的影响。自1999年以来，日本的整体消费者价格指数连年走低，而生产者价格指数则已经是连续10年出现下滑。汇丰证券（日本）(HSBC Securities (Japan))的股票策略师盖里?伊文斯(Garry Evans)说：“总体而言，通货紧缩对股市不利，因为股票收益是名义上的，不是真正意义上的。此外，由于通货紧缩，销售也难以增长。”
尽管如此，东京股市仍连续六周走高，部份原因在于它通常会追随华尔街的走势，外国投资者的买进也起到了推波助澜的作用。然而，股价的走高还受到其他一些内在因素的影响。
首先，分析师认为日本股票的估价偏低。在过去10年里，股市的颓势使希望规避货币风险的投资者将大量资金投向日本国债市场。目前，日本30年期国债的收益率还不到1%，而上周三，基准的10年期国债收益率则创下了0.43%的新低。但现在，投资者对债券的这些偏爱已荡然无存，部份指标显示，即使股价不持续走高，对股票投资也会更有意义。
尽管日本公司在派息方面的名声一向不好，但自2002年7月以来，公司派息所带来的收益超过了10年期日本国债的收益水平，这还是自1955年来的首次（1998年两者曾出现过短暂交叉）。
高盛(Goldman Sachs)的日本股票策略师Kathy Matsui说：“从投资者角度而言，靠资本利得赚不了什么钱，因此他们开始寻找那些能带来稳定收益的公司。
其次，许多日本公司已经学会了如何来应对通货紧缩。有些公司通过保持收入的增长来度过难关，如汽车业在海外市场的销售额就在逐步增加。其他一些行业可以维持当前的产品售价，因为受到了政府的保护，因此受通货紧缩的影响也相对较差。受到严格监管的服务业没有面对外来竞争的风险，因此，包括医疗服务、招聘、教育和护理等在内的服务业去年的收入实现了稳定的增长。Matsui说：“投资者正寻找那些在通货紧缩情况下仍能够实现收入增长的公司。
此外，日本公司的债务水平在逐步降低。5月份银行贷款较上年同期下降4.7%，连续第65个月出现下降。汇丰证券的策略师伊文斯说，直到1990年，企业的银行贷款还只有运营利润的8倍，而随著负债水平的上升和利润的下滑，这一比例在1998年达到了20倍的最高水平。现在，该比例回到了12倍的水平。他说：“业务重组使得企业利润上升，而资本支出的削减又使企业的债务水平下降。”
日经指数不会跌破4月份低点的第三个原因可能不被大多数人认可，但仍不乏支持者。这个原因是：日本的金融监管当局可能即将找出造成不良贷款和通货紧缩的根本原因。
在新行长福井俊彦(Toshihiko Fukui)的领导下，日本央行(Bank of Japan)愿意尝试用非常规货币政策来刺激经济再膨胀。一周前，日本央行宣布将买入垃圾级企业债，这是一家现代央行首次采取此类举措。自福井俊彦就职以来，日本央行越来越积极地实施一些特殊政策来增加货币供应量，以刺激商业活动。
另外，日本政府近期斥资170亿美元向Resona Holdings提供援助。分析师表示，对身处困境中的日本银行而言，这可能是一个转折点，因为这表明金融大臣竹中平藏(Heizo
Takenaka)对于清理银行不良资产是认真的。
摩根士坦利的Kamiyama说，随著处境不佳的银行破产或缩小规模，加之建筑和零售等行业的亏损企业得到清理，这些行业的形势在未来一两年将大大改观。
