A 'Maximum City' at its limits: why Mumbai's best hope lies in building anew
In Dharavi, the largest slum in Asia, Alam clutches his face in pain. The plastic-crushing machine he operates has jammed again, sending a metal part flying into his forehead. A small crowd gathers as blood wells up around his hairline but within minutes he is back at work, cramming bottles into the machine's churning jaws.
Time out for a check-up is not an option. With more than 1m people inhabiting this patch of land between Mumbai's western and central railway lines, barely 1.75 sq km in area, there is plenty of competition for an unskilled job paying Rs4,000 ($86, ￡45, �68) a month.
Like thousands of other migrants who flow every year into what Indians call the "Maximum City", Alam lives in squalor. The monsoon rains have dispelled the faecal smog of high summer - there is one toilet for every 1,500 slum-dwellers - but they have flooded the lanes and blocked the drains. He survives on the pennies he makes recycling plastic.
Home to 16.4m at the time of the 2001 census, greater Mumbai (formerly Bombay) is the largest city in India and the acid test of its ability to manage the process of urbanisation. It is likely, according to the United Nations, to become the world's largest city after Tokyo by 2015, with a population of nearly 25m.
But for Mukesh Ambani, chairman of Reliance Industries, Mumbai's plight also represents an unprecedented business opportunity. Next month, India's largest private-sector industrial group will start work on nothing less than a new city, spread over 140 sq km of land just across the harbour from the country's business capital.
Viewed from a Reliance helicopter, the marshy and sparsely inhabited land east of Mumbai he has just acquired is an almost empty green canvas, dotted with villages and lined with creeks. But when the monsoon ends in a few weeks' time, work will start on what will be a decade-long re-landscaping project.
To many minds, Mr Ambani's bold southern extension of Navi (New) Mumbai - an area under sporadic development since 1971 - represents the last chance to save Mumbai from buckling beneath the pressure. If all goes to plan, the twin city across the harbour will provide an orderly platform for future growth.
The next five years, urban planners say, will be critical to Mumbai's future. If it is to have any chance of competing as a global financial centre with other Asian cities, as India wants, it must act decisively before the tide of humanity overwhelms it.
"The entire country is here, from people from Karnataka and Kerala in the south to migrants from Bihar and Uttar Pradesh in the north and from everywhere in between," says Krishna Pujari, who guides incredulous tourists around Dharavi. "People live 10 or 12 to a room, minimum. No water, no latrines, no electricity."
Dharavi is just one of dozens of informal settlements that provide shelter to around half of Mumbai's inhabitants. With land prices touching record highs, slum-dwellers like Sayed Kadr, 21, an electrician originally from Chennai (formerly Madras) have little hope of buying a home. "I cannot afford anything else," says Mr Kadr, whose family lives in a slum in Mahim, close to the scene of one of six commuter train blasts that killed 207 on July 11.
Poor migrants come not because of the "pull" of genuine economic activity in the cities - India's growth is essentially jobless - but because they are being "pushed" out of rural areas by dwindling agricultural incomes, rising indebtedness and the relentless sub-division of already minuscule landholdings. Yet so far Indian governments have prioritised finger-in-the-dyke policies to stem the tide of migration over upgrades to urban infrastructure. The centrepiece of this approach is a costly new subsistence programme, the national rural employment guarantee scheme, which underwrites 100 paid days' work a year per household.
Rural desperation is hard to overstate. Since July 1, when Manmohan Singh, prime minister, visited Vidharba in Maharashtra state (of which Mumbai is the capital) to publicise a debt cancellation drive, aid agencies say 44 farmers have killed themselves by drinking pesticide.
Industrialisation has never been a pretty process. But whereas urbanisation in the west took place over hundreds of years in countries with small populations and a limited electoral franchise, in India the same process is happening within a few generations in the world's largestdemocracy.
With 1.1bn people, every percentage point shift in India's population to cities involves the migration of 11m. The country's urban population will expand to 575m by 2030 from 285m today, an increase roughly equivalent to the entire population of the US.
"Today, India is 28 per cent urbanised but that proportion is going to double within 30 years," says A.G. Krishna Menon, director of the TVB school of Habitat Studies in New Delhi. "There is no gainsaying the fact that there's going to be a tremendous demand for new cities and for the planned expansion of existing ones."
As in China, new cities have been emerging to cope with migration from the villages. There were 393 cities with a population of more than 100,000 in India in 2001 compared with 299 a decade earlier, according to the Ministry for Urban Development. India had one city of 1m-plus - Calcutta - in 1901. It now has 35.
This may sound impressive but the need for a more urgent and systematic approach to urban renewal is undeniable. "We have obviously not been investing in infrastructure the way we ought to have been and we're now paying the cost for that free lunch," says Mr Menon. "Otherwise why would our cities be in such bad shape?"
India's 2001 census found that just 49.7 per cent of urban households had tap water on their premises and only 57.4 per cent had sanitation facilities. Slums, a highly visible manifestation of urban poverty, housed approximately 40m people - or 14 per cent of the non-rural population.
The poor infrastructure of India's cities represents a significant brake on the country's economy. The importance of the urban sector is indisputable, contributing 50-52 per cent of gross domestic product and around two-thirds of employment in trade, commerce, financial services and manufacturing.
"Poor urban development and management is not only undermining India's ability to deliver quality of life to its citizens but also constraining potential local and national economic growth," notes the Asian Development Bank. "The need for a strong focus and accelerated investment in urban development is clear."
Many of India's cities are nearing snapping-point but none more so than Mumbai. In the wake of mismanaged monsoon floods and chaotic response to the July commuter train bombings, anger at the government's failure to deliver basic services, including emergency services that might have saved many lives, is boiling over.
The bombings seem to be galvanising a heterogeneous population into rare collective action. Billboards proclaiming "Enough is enough!" have sprung up across the city, part of a campaign by the Times of India, the country's leading English-language paper, to draw attention to municipal mismanagement, corruption and neglect.
Some 20,000 Mumbaikers have signed the newspaper's petition, addressed to Mr Singh, begging him to intervene. "India's business capital cannot be subjected to such tattered public services," it says. "We want to live like human beings, not rats."
Help from New Delhi is, in theory at least, on its way, but it will take time to percolate down to the slums of Dharavi: in December 2005, Mr Singh launched the Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission, a $28bn programme to overhaul the infrastructure of 63 cities over seven years - the largest such initiative in Indianhistory.
Warning that India's economic future was in jeopardy, Mr Singh said that "premature migration" of large numbers of people from rural areas had not only placed acute strain on urban infrastructure but had also brought with it "a terrible downside" of proliferating slums, homelessness, poverty, crime, pollution and ecological damage.
Mr Singh says India will need to invest $150bn in its infrastructure over the next five years, with one-third of that in cities. But that arguably understates the problem. The Confederation of Indian Industry this month called for infrastructure spending to climb to 8 per cent of GDP by 2012, from 4.6 per cent, with a total investment of $331bn.
India has built cities since independence, including three state capitals and a number of satellite towns around New Delhi. Small-to-medium sized township developments are common. But no private company has before taken on a city-building project as daring as New Mumbai.
Modelled on Shenzhen and Suzhou Industrial City, Mr Ambani's New Mumbai special economic zone will be the first in India constructed on a scale comparable to those in China. Dozens of smaller SEZs have been announced since India passed a law encouraging them last year, but nothing in Mr Ambani's city-building league.
The land will be developed in phases, with cash flows from housing, office buildings and factories eventually providing a return on Mr Ambani's up-front investment in infrastructure. The government of Maharashtra will assist with connectivity, building a $2bn, 22.5km trans-harbour road bridge linking the development to Mumbai.
A similar project in the state of Haryana, covering 100 sq km just 45km from New Delhi, is also in the pipeline and will include an international airport. Over the next decade, Reliance plans to invest $11bn in land acquisition and infrastructure for the two projects and expects to attract follow-on investments worth $111bn.
If all goes to plan - and Reliance's track record with large projects is second to none in India - Mr Ambani's SEZs near Mumbai and Delhi will provide both a lifeline and a safety valve for the country's two most important cities. Within a decade, Reliance expects 2m people to be living in the two areas and 5m working there.
"Navi Mumbai and Delhi will show the world that India can provide urban infrastructure that is competitive with the very best available anywhere in the world," says Anand Jain, a school friend of Mr Ambani's who heads Reliance's new cities project. "Everyone will want to be here."
Replicate Reliance's investments dozens of times and India may come close to dealing with the difficulties facing it over the next three decades. If it fails to do so, all bets will be off on the Indian economic miracle. India's prosperity resides principally in its cities and, if they continue to collapse, so too will the country's economy.
建设孟买的“浦东”（上）
在
亚洲最大的贫民窟达拉维(Dharavi)，阿拉姆(Alam)痛苦地捂住了自己的脸。他所操作的塑胶粉碎机又卡住了，一块金属碎片溅出来，击中了他的前额。鲜血在他的发际线周围涌出，一小群人围了了过来，不过几分钟后，他又重新开始工作，把塑料瓶塞入机器的进料口。
停下来去看医生是不行的。在孟买西部和中部的铁路沿线之间的这一小块地方，面积仅为1.75平方公里，却居住着100万以上的人口，竞争这么一份月薪4000卢比（86美元）的非技术工作的人很多。
每年有成千上万的移民，涌入印度人所谓的“极大之城”(Maximum City)，和他们一样，阿拉姆居住在肮脏的环境里。季风雨驱散了盛夏排泄物的臭气――住在贫民窟的每1500个人，才拥有一个厕所――但雨水淹没了小巷，阻塞了排水沟。阿拉姆靠回收塑料赚来的微薄薪水度日。
2015年人口接近2500万
2001年人口普查时，大孟买有1640万人口，是印度最大的城市，也是对该国管理城市化进程能力的关键考验。联合国(UN)称，到2015年，孟买可能成为仅次于东京的全球第二大城市，人口接近2500万。
但对于信实工业(Reliance Industries)董事长穆凯什?安巴尼(Mukesh Ambani)而言，孟买的境况还代表着一种前所未有的商机。下个月，这家印度最大的私营工业集团，将开始建设一个崭新的城市，这座新城方圆140平方公里，与该国的商业首都隔海港相望。
从信实工业的直升飞机上俯瞰，安巴尼刚刚买下的这块地处孟买以东、沼泽般人烟稀少的土地，几乎像一块空荡荡的绿色画布，上面有村庄点缀，小溪流淌。但当雨季在数周之后结束时，一项为期10年的建设项目将会启动。
在许多人看来，安巴尼大胆的新孟买南向扩张计划――自1971年以来，对该地区的开发时断时续――是将孟买从无计划增长压力下解救出来的最后机会。如果一切按计划进行，这个海港对岸的孪生城，将为未来扩张提供一个有序的平台。
今后五年对于孟买的未来至关重要
城市规划者表示，今后五年对于孟买的未来至关重要。如果它希望像印度政府所希望的那样，有机会作为全球金融中心与其它亚洲城市竞争的话，就必须在被人潮淹没之前，果断地采取行动。
“这里全国各地的人都有，有来自南部卡纳塔克邦和喀拉拉邦的人，也有来自北部比哈尔邦和北方邦的移民，还有来自南北之间所有地方的人，”带着疑心重重的游客逛达拉维的导游克里希纳?普贾里(Krishna Pujari)表示。“每个房间至少住10个或12个人。没有水，没有厕所，也没有电。”
达拉维只是众多非正式居住地之一，这些地方为半数左右的孟买居民提供了安身之所。赛义德?卡德(Sayed Kadr)今年21岁，是来自钦奈（原名马德拉斯）的一名电工，随着地价触及创纪录的高位，像他这样的贫民窟居民没什么希望买房子。卡德表示：“我负担不起别的地方。”他的家在马希姆的贫民窟，距离7月11日导致207人死亡的6起城铁爆炸案中一起的现场很近。
政府实行消极封堵政策
贫穷的移民来到这里，不是由于城市中真正经济活动的“吸引力”――印度的增长基本上不创造就业机会――而是因为他们正被不断减少的农业收入、不断上升的债务以及对已经很少的土地的无情细分，“赶出了”农村。而印度各级政府却实行消极封堵政策，把重点放在阻止移民潮，而不是改造城市基础设施上。这一做法的核心内容，是一项耗资巨大的新最低生存计划――全国农村就业保证计划，承诺为每户居民每年提供100天的有薪工作。
印度农村的绝望境况怎么形容也不为过。今年7月1日，该国总理曼莫汉?辛格(Manmohan Singh)视察马哈拉施特拉邦（孟买是该邦的首府）的Vidharba时，宣布了一项债务免除举措。援助机构称，自那以来已有44名农民喝农药自杀。
工业化从不是个美妙的过程
工业化从不是个美妙的过程。但西方的城市化进程用了数百年时间，发生在人口较少、选举权有限的国家里，而在印度，同样的进程却是在几代人的时间内，发生在全球最大的民主国家。
印度有11亿人口，每一个百分点的人口迁入城市，都牵扯到1100万移民。2030年之前，该国城市人口将从目前的2.85亿，增至5.75亿，增加的数量几乎相当于美国总人口。
“如今，印度的城市化率已达到28%，但30年内这一比率将上升一倍，”新德里TVB居住研究学院(TVB school of Habitat Studies)负责人A?G?克里希纳?梅农(A.G.Krishna Menon)表示。“不可否认，对新城市以及现有城市有计划扩张的需求，是非常巨大的。”
与中国的情况一样，印度的新城市一直在不断出现，以应对来自农村的移民。印度城市发展部称，2001年印度有393座人口超过10万的城市，而十年前只有299座。1901年，印度只有一座城市人口超过100万――加尔各答。现在有35座。
这听起来可能会给人留下深刻的印象，但不可否认，需要一个更为紧迫和系统化的城市重建方法。“显然我们一直没有在基础设施方面进行应有的投资，现在，我们正为这顿‘免费午餐’付出代价，”梅农表示。“否则，我们的城市怎么会处于如此糟糕的状态？”
印度2001年人口普查发现，只有49.7%的城市家庭有自来水，只有57.4%有卫生设施。作为城市贫困非常鲜明的表现，贫民窟容纳了大约4000万人口――占非农村人口的14%。
落后基础设施阻碍经济
印度城市落后的基础设施，对该国经济起着严重的阻碍作用。城市的重要性是毋庸置疑的，它占到了国内生产总值(GDP)的50%至52%，同时提供着贸易、商业、金融服务和制造业领域约三分之二的从业机会。
“落后的城市发展和管理，不仅影响着印度为市民提供生活品质的能力，还抑制了潜在的当地乃至全国经济增长，”亚洲开发银行(ADB)指出。“需要强烈关注城市发展，并加快在该领域的投资，这一点显而易见。”
（待续）
