An inconvenient truth about falling oil prices
It has been quite a while since the world last heard some good news on oil prices. In the space of a few weeks, crude prices have fallen by 20 per cent, to about $60 a barrel. Most will presume this development is positive for the world economy. On closer inspection, however, the news may signal a more disturbing event: an upcoming slowdown in economic activity across the industrialised world.
Only three years ago oil prices were hovering around the $30 mark. Since then, we have seen a steady increase in prices on the back of strong oil demand, a sluggish response in supply and the spike in prices caused by Hurricane Katrina this time last year. At its peak this August, crude oil was trading at just below $80 a barrel.
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The recent easing in prices seems to be a good thing: cheaper oil reduces inflation. It does so directly, as headline price indices include some oil-related goods. There are also indirect benefits: businesses using oil as an input can lower the price of their own production, and consumers will revise down their expectations of future inflation, as fuel prices are so visible.
But that is not the whole story, as analysis of the causes of the doubling in oil prices shows. The main driver has been sustained growth in oil demand. That, in turn, has been the result of four years of exceptional economic growth. In 2004, the year oil consumption took off, global growth reached its highest rate since the 1970s.
Remember that the price of oil is closely related to demand (and vice versa) in the short run. The US has recently been the single largest contributor to world demand growth, thanks to substantial fiscal and monetary stimuli since 2001. Growth has been sustained by consumers, buoyed by a booming housing market and, more recently, by corporate investment. But the outlook for 2007 is tainted by an already noticeable moderation in the housing market, which Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve chairman, this week warned could spill over into other sectors. Indeed, closely watched job creation statistics released yesterday showed the weakest reading since the one-off dip due to the hurricanes last September.
One can also not presume that other large economic regions will pick up the global growth baton. In the eurozone, the recovery that started early this year was primarily the result of strong export growth. Some of this impetus will disappear when US consumers realise they cannot extract yet more equity from their homes to buy another German car. While some countries have seen strong domestic demand, most obviously in Spain and France, a hawkish European Central Bank is bent on avoiding the slightest rise in inflation. At the same time, all the big European countries have decided to tighten fiscal policy. Meanwhile, Japan, where the current improvement was also originally due to strong external demand, is not big or buoyant enough to prop up world growth.
The reduction in prices we see today is the result of expectations of weaker demand rather than of improvements in supply. This makes the fall much more worrying than it may initially seem. If the decline in prices were to continue, it would be an indication of continued weakness in global demand. Worse, it would also undermine the price stability needed for investment in both increased supply and more efficient use of the world's scarce energy resources. Do not cheer too soon. This good news may yet turn out quite bad.
油价下跌未必好消息
人们已很长时间没有听到油价方面的好消息了。在数周之内，原油价格已下挫20%，跌至每桶60美元左右。多数人会认为，油价的这种走势对于全球经济而言是利好消息。然而，详加审视后会发现，这则消息或许暗示着一件更令人不安的事情：整个工业化世界的经济活动即将放缓。
就在三年前，油价还一直在每桶30美元左右徘徊。自那以后，由于原油需求强劲、供应方面的反应速度迟缓，以及去年这个时候卡特里娜飓风(Hurricane Katrina)导致的价格飙升，我们看到油价一路稳步攀升。今年8月份，原油交易价格达到将近每桶80美元的峰值水平。
油价近来的回落似乎是件好事：油价下跌能降低通胀水平。这种作用非常直接，因为总体物价指数包括一些与石油相关的商品。油价下跌也有一些间接的益处：把石油作为投入要素的企业能降低它们的生产成本，同时由于燃料价格如此一目了然，消费者也将向下修正对未来通胀水平的预期。
但正如对油价翻番原因分析所显示的那样，这并非事情的全部。一直以来，油价高企的主要驱动因素是持续增长的原油需求，而高需求又是四年超常经济增长的结果。在石油消费量开始猛增的2004年，全球经济增长速度达到了20世纪70年代以来的最高水平。
我们知道，从短期角度而言油价与需求密切相关(反之亦然)。自2001年以来，美国大举推行财政和货币刺激政策，得益于此，该国近年来一直在推动全球需求增长方面发挥着最大的作用。消费者需求维系了美国的经济增长，而蓬勃发展的住宅市场（以及近来的企业投资）也为其提供了支撑。但目前住宅市场已明显放缓，使2007年的增长前景受到影响。美联储主席本?伯南克(Ben Bernanke)上周警告称，这种放缓可能蔓延至其它领域。事实上，上周五公布的新增就业统计数据显示，这一备受关注的指标处于去年9月份飓风造成的一次性下跌以来的最弱水平。
我们也不能指望其它主要经济区域将接过全球增长的指挥棒。在欧元区，今年早些时候开始的复苏主要是出口强劲增长的结果。当美国消费者意识到，自己无法抽出更多的住宅资产再买一辆德国汽车时，这种推动力也将部分消失。尽管一些国家(其中最引人注目的是西班牙和法国)的国内需求颇为强劲，但态度强硬的欧洲央行(ECB)已决心避免通胀再有丝毫抬头。与此同时，所有欧洲大国都决定收紧财政政策。此外，目前日本经济状况的改善最初也归因于强劲的外部需求，其经济实力和增长势头都不足以推动全球增长。
我们目前看到的油价下跌，是需求走软预期的结果，而非由于供应方面的改善。这使得这种下跌比乍看上去更令人担忧。如果油价继续下跌，将表明全球需求会维持疲弱走势。更糟糕的是，它还将影响价格的稳定性，而这种稳定性是增加产能投资和更高效率利用世界稀缺资源所需要的。所以，别高兴得太早，油价下跌这个好消息或许会变成坏消息。
