China Yuan Up Late, Steady Despite Big Sep Trade Surplus -2
Vs Parity Pvs Close USD/CNY Central Parity 7.9174 USD/CNY OTC 0730 GMT 7.9143 +0.04% 7.9149 High 7.9182 +0.01% Low 7.9125 -0.06% SHANGHAI (Dow Jones)--Despite data showing China's monthly trade surplus for September was at its second-highest level ever, China's yuan remained steady against the dollar Thursday with traders expecting the rate to continue to stall Friday. On the over-the-counter market the dollar was at CNY7.9143 around 0730 GMT, down from Wednesday's close of CNY7.9149. It traded between CNY7.9125 and CNY7.9182. The U.S. dollar was at CNY7.9140 on the automatic price matching system around 0730 GMT, flat from Wednesday's close. It traded in a range of CNY7.9137 to CNY7.9165. Last month, China's trade surplus hit $15.3 billion, second only to August's record monthly surplus of $18.8 billion. Market expectations had centered on a monthly surplus of $14.6 billion for September, according to a Dow Jones Newswires poll. Foreign economists said the large surplus contributed to overall pressure on the yuan to appreciate faster. It 'makes the logic of a faster (yuan rise) more compelling,' said Ben Simpfendorfer, China strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland. A Shanghai-based dealer with a foreign bank said the data didn't have a bigger effect on the dollar-yuan rate as the figures were roughly in line with expectations. The data 'would have to be greatly out of line with expectations to have an effect,' he said. Dealers said the yuan was consolidating after falling sharply in recent sessions. The dollar has rebounded since hitting CNY7.8954 on Sept. 28, its lowest point since the yuan was revalued against the U.S. unit in July last year. A Shanghai-based dealer with a foreign bank said she expected the dollar-yuan rate to remain fairly stable again Friday, with the central parity to be set around Thursday's level of CNY7.9174. Offshore, one-year dollar-yuan nondeliverable forwards were at 7.6468/7.6568, up from 7.6450/7.6490 late Wednesday.
人民币尾盘基本持稳，未受9月份高额贸易顺差影响 -2-
中国9月份实现贸易顺差153亿美元，继8月份之后创历史第二高，8月份实现贸易顺差188亿美元。接受道琼斯通讯社(Dow Jones Newswires)调查的经济学家们预计，9月份贸易顺差为146亿美元。 海外经济学家们认为，高额贸易顺差会对人民币构成加速升值压力。苏格兰皇家银行(Royal Bank Of Scotland)的中国策略师Ben Simpfendorfer表示，这使得要求人民币升值的理由更加充分。 一家外资银行驻上海的交易商表示，由于9月份贸易顺差数据与预期基本一致，所以该数据对美元/人民币汇率的影响有限。 他表示，只有当该数据与市场预期大相径庭时，才会对人民币汇率构成影响。交易商们称，人民币在连续几个交易日大幅下跌之后，将进行盘整。 美元在9月28日触及人民币7.8954元之后开始反弹，这是自人民币汇率改革之后美元/人民币的最低价位。 一家外资银行驻上海的交易商预计，美元/人民币周五将继续持稳，该汇率中间价可能会在周四的人民币7.9174元附近。 离岸市场，1年期美元/人民币不可交割远期合约尾盘报人民币7.6468/7.6568，高于周叁尾盘的人民币7.6450/7.6490元。
