China Polling Firm's Founder Looks Beyond Typical Surveys
Horizon's Yuan Measures Public's Happiness, Spurs Government to Do the Same
When Victor Yuan quit his first job with China's Ministry of Justice in 1992 to start a polling business, his colleagues were skeptical. Market research still was a new and somewhat strange concept in China.
"Nobody understood what I was doing," says Mr. Yuan, who is now 41 years old.
Today, Mr. Yuan's company, Horizon Research Consultancy Group, is one of the country's leading polling firms, known for its sometimes-controversial public-opinion surveys on sensitive issues, and is one of the first businesses to be certified by the State Statistic Bureau to carry out research projects in China for international clients. With offices in four cities and 310 employees, it says it has completed more than 5,000 projects for local and global companies. Horizon Research had revenue in 2005 of 10 million yuan ($1.3 million), 60% from market research and 40% from strategy consulting.
Horizon was the first to venture into the public-opinion arena by surveying people about mayoral performance in 2002. The company also conducts a "happiness" survey among the general public, which triggered a similar survey by the government, apparently to counter Horizon findings that some officials might deem too negative.
Mr. Yuan, who holds a Ph.D. in sociology from Peking University and a master's degree in public administration from Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government, is president of the Beijing Consulting Association and vice president of the China Marketing Research Association. He spoke with Loretta Chao from his office in Beijing.
WSJ: What did you learn from your first job [at the Ministry of Justice]?
Mr. Yuan: In my business, I need to handle relations with the government, especially when I research a sensitive political issue like social policy, or some other public topic. When I look back, the experience gave me the insight and also the knowledge of how to define the line between what I can do and what I cannot do.
WSJ: What is the biggest difference between market research in China versus in other places?
Mr. Yuan: The period of consumption [how long a product stays in fashion] in the Chinese market is shorter than in other markets, even more so than the U.S. If you look at mobile phones, every eight or nine months people want a change. They need more innovation. In the future, many products will be used in the Chinese market first and then extended to other markets. People here will be happy to be the pilot consumers.
WSJ: How do you compete with larger foreign firms?
Mr. Yuan: The core practices of foreign firms are all very similar, and they have a lot of experience. Standardizing is a much better way to do business, because you can use one model, one solution that fits all. It's easier to make money.
Standardization is also a problem. Clients often choose us because we are more focused on the client and tailor a more specific solution to that client. But in our model, we spend too much energy, which limits the number of projects, and financially it's not as good. So we emphasize our service and research.
WSJ: What is an example of something you do differently?
Mr. Yuan: Right now, typical market research is the study of the psychological needs of clients to understand what they would buy. But actually, many consumers themselves don't know what they want. Usually you can only effectively talk about things within the next one or two years and be accurate.
But if we bring a visual representation of a futuristic product to the customer and ask, if the product changed like this, would you purchase it? That is what we call a future study; it's not a typical practice, even by international research firms. But we believe that's very important because in China, the concept for new products don't just come from people's experience.
WSJ: What's the one thing you wish that new hires at Horizon already knew when they come in?
Mr. Yuan: I pay attention to three things. First, how many articles or papers have you written in your campus life? What topics?
Second, what kind of books have you been reading in the past year?
Third, I want to know about their circle of friends. Basically I don't want the best students or the best talent; it's harder to get the best people to work together. In my company, cooperation is very important, so if someone was a top student [at a leading university], I will be cautious. It depends more on your attitude.
WSJ: What advice would you give to a person starting out in your field in China?
Mr. Yuan: Now is not the time when you can easily launch a company. There were many new graduates from university who founded companies -- students without any working experience. Today, I think that's not enough. You must be very knowledgeable and experienced in a specific area. Then you must choose one specialty to succeed.
WSJ: What is the most controversial poll you ever conducted?
Mr. Yuan: The first year we released the results of the happiness index, we found that rich doesn't necessarily mean happy, and poor doesn't automatically mean unhappy. Though the poorest are sometimes the unhappiest, being rich didn't mean people were the happiest.
But now, five years later, even the government knows that, yes, happiness means something beyond money. So this year, they started a national poll [to make their own] happiness index. But some local governments have made the happiness index a goal of the government, meaning they want the rate to be high. That is problematic. If it's not high, you'll have to make it high -- so who knows if it's true or false?
So our plan is that every year we will release our data [as an alternative] and the media can use it. I think this is progress.
零点公司──不走寻常路
袁岳1992年离开了中国司法部、辞掉他的第一份工作并且开了一家调查公司，当时他的同事对这种做法充满了怀疑。市场调查那时在中国仍然是个新鲜、甚至有点陌生的概念。
现年41岁的袁岳说：“没有人理解我在做什么。”
如今，袁岳的零点研究调查集团(Horizon Research Consultancy Group)已经成为中国顶级调查公司之一，并且成为通过中国国家统计局(State Statistic Bureau)认证的、可以为国际客户进行调查的首批企业之一。零点调查已经在四个城市设立了办公室，并有310名雇员，它已经为当地及国际客户完成了5,000多个项目。零点调查2005年的收入为人民币1,000万元（合130万美元），其中60%来自市场调查，40%来自战略咨询。
零点调查在2002年进行了市民评价市长表现的调查，成为进入中国公众观点研究领域的首家公司。该公司还在大众中开展了“幸福感”调查，这促使中国政府之后也开展了类似的调查。
袁岳拥有北京大学社会学博士学位及哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院(Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government)公共管理学硕士学位。他现在担任北京咨询协会(Beijing Consulting Association)会长及中国市场研究协会(China Marketing Research Association)的副会长。他在北京办公室接受了记者Loretta Chao的采访。
《华尔街日报》（以下简称WSJ）：你从（在司法部的）第一份工作中学到了什么？
袁岳：我在工作中需要处理与政府的关系，特别是当我们调查的内容涉及社会政策等敏感政治问题，或者其他公共话题时更是如此。当我回过头来看，第一份工作的经历赋予了我洞察力，并且让我明白如何区分我能做什么或不能做什么。
WSJ：在中国进行市场调查与在其他地方进行最大的区别是什么？
袁岳：中国市场的商品消费期（一个产品流行的时间长度）比其他市场都短，甚至比美国市场都短。如果你看一下手机市场就会发现，每隔8-9个月人们就希望换手机了。他们需要更多的创新。在将来，很多产品将首先在中国市场投入使用，之后再扩展到其他市场上。中国人很乐意成为前卫消费者。
WSJ：你如何与大型外国公司竞争？
袁岳：外国公司的核心业务都十分相似，而且它们经验丰富。标准化是一种做生意较好的方法，因为你能够使用适用于一切的一个模式、一种解决方案。这样更容易赚钱。
但是标准化同样存在问题。客户往往选择我们是因为我们更加重视客户并且为不同的客户量身制定不同的解决方案。但是在我们的经营模式中，我们耗费的精力太多，限制了开展项目的数量，在经济效益方面的效果也不是很好。因此，我们更加重视服务及研究。
WSJ：能否举个例子，说说你们跟别人不一样的做法？
袁岳：眼下，最常见的市场调查是研究用户的心理需求，了解他们想买什么。但实际上，许多消费者自己也不知道他们想买什么。通常而言，你只能有效、准确地谈论未来一到两年内的事物。
但是，如果我们拿出一个能显示未来产品具体特征的东西，然后问受访者：如果将来的产品变成这样，你会不会买？这就不一样了。这就是我们所谓的未来调查。这不是一种常规做法，就连一些国际性调查公司也没这么做过。但我们认为这么做很重要，因为在中国，新产品的概念不仅来自人们的经历。
WSJ：你希望新员工在加入零点公司前要了解什么？
袁岳：对新员工我会关注三方面的问题：首先，你在大学里写过多少文章或论文？都是什么方面的话题？
其次，过去一年你都读了些什么书？
第三，我想知道他/她有怎样的朋友圈。一般来说，我不想招最好的学生或最棒的人才进来；都是最出色的人反而很难在一起合作。而在我们公司里，合作是非常重要的。如果有个员工是一流大学来的尖子生，我就会非常谨慎。工作成绩更多地取决于你的态度。
WSJ：如果有人在中国开始涉足你所在的这个行业，你会给他什么建议？
袁岳：现在这个时候创建公司可不是件容易事。有那么多刚毕业的大学生开公司，他们都没有什么工作经验。在今天的环境下我认为这样的背景不够。开公司必须对某个领域非常了解、有很多经验。其次，要想成功，你必须选定一个专门领域。
WSJ：你们做过的最具争议的调查是什么？
我们第一年做幸福指数调查的时候发现，富裕未必意味着幸福。同样，贫穷未必不幸福。虽然最穷的人可能也是最不幸福的人，但最富的未必最幸福。
五年过去后，现在，就连政府也认识到幸福的含义并不局限于金钱。因此今年政府方面也搞了一个有关幸福指数的全国性调查。不过，一些地方政府将幸福指数变成了政绩指标，希望本地区的指数越高越好。这种做法很成问题。如果不够高，他们就会想方设法让它高，这样一来谁知道那个指数是真的还是假的。
所以，我们计划每年发布一个我们调查的数据（作为官方数据的对照），媒体可以采用。我相信这是一种进步。
Loretta Chao
