The New China?
Vietnam feels like it's on the verge of something big. The newest member of the World Trade Organization, Hanoi seems to be heading where China has already trod. But beyond the chopsticks and steaming economic growth, how apt is the comparison?
The question will be rudely played out in newspaper headlines this week as postwar Hanoi hosts its first big economic bash: the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. More than 50 world leaders, including President Bush, will attend. They won't be far off if they think: Shanghai, circa 1995.
Like Beijing, Hanoi has now resolutely thrown its hat in with capitalism. That makes economic growth more stable than the last investment frenzy in the mid-1990s. Vietnam's Communist Party took a little longer than China to get on the wagon -- the doi moi, or "renovation" reforms, weren't instituted until 1986 -- but they're now firmly on board.
Foreign direct investment is hovering at around $6.5 billion so far this year, and likely to rise. Macroeconomic growth clocked in at 8.1% last year -- second only to China in Asia -- aided by "vigorous" consumption growth, buoyant employment, and strong remittances from abroad, according to the Asian Development Bank. Rising oil prices gave the fiscal balance sheet a boost, but so, too, did marginally better tax collection. Hanoi is targeting 7.5% to 8% expansion over the next three to five years. If current trends continue, that looks reasonable.
The country has global trade winds at its back, too. Last week, Vietnam was accepted into the World Trade Organization, after 11 years of talks and more than 300 new laws. Compared with the deals struck by past applicants, Vietnam committed to a broader and deeper opening. Sectors like telecommunications will see phased-in majority control for foreigners; other areas, like accountancy, will be thrown open immediately. A wide swath of agricultural export duties will be slashed.
It's not all good news. As in China, there's still little indication on how far Vietnam will open up sensitive industries like retail banking or reform government procurement practices. There's a good reason for this reluctance: Vietnam's economy, and particularly its financial sector, is riddled with problems. State-directed lending still accounts for about 75% of total lending. The central bank says bad loans are in the single digits; more sober estimates suggest 20% to 30% of total loans. Corruption is rife, at national and local levels. And don't even ask about the legal system -- there's a good reason why most foreign firms chose international arbitration over the Vietnamese bench.
But the WTO deal is a good start -- and membership should go a long way toward helping Hanoi fix its economic troubles. More than half of its citizens toil in agriculture, which today contributes about one-fifth of the nation's GDP. Every year, the country has to create about 1.6 million jobs just to employ workers entering the job market. The median age of workers is 25.5 years old. While Vietnam didn't industrialize to the same extent as its northern neighbor -- and therefore isn't riddled with as many tottering state-owned enterprises -- it was clear two decades ago that agriculture alone couldn't supply enough jobs for such a young and eager workforce.
Unfortunately, it's unclear to what degree U.S. companies will benefit from Vietnam's rise. While U.S. exports increased 24% last year, to $1.2 billion, and Washington concluded a comprehensive, bilateral trade agreement with Hanoi in March, it doesn't mean anything if Congress doesn't approve permanent normal trading relations (PNTR) in this week's lame duck session. A relic of the Soviet years, PNTR is an extra hurdle for non-market economies to gain access to American consumers.
After the bilateral deal was signed, PNTR looked like a shoo-in. The bill had strong bipartisan support. But then the U.S. Trade Representative Susan Schwab and Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez cut a private deal with Senators Elizabeth Dole and Lindsey Graham, who represent small, inefficient textile manufacturers in North and South Carolina getting crushed by globalization. In an end-run around the bilateral agreement, USTR agreed to impose an automatic anti-dumping review on Vietnamese apparel manufacturers every six months. Given that Commerce sets the prices, it's hard for Vietnamese companies to prevail in such suits. The U.S. retailing industry and Hanoi's trade team are hopping mad, and for good reason.
Then there's Florida Senator Mel Martinez's hold on the bill, pending the release of a Florida woman, Thuong Nguyen Foshee, held for 14 months without trial. She and two other Vietnamese-Americans were convicted of terrorism on Friday. But the Ho Chi Minh City court issued light sentences, and the three are expected to be back in America within a month. That should take care of Mr. Martinez's gripes.
Vietnam is far from a model state. Like China, it's riddled with human rights violations, corruption and state-supported industries. But its economic growth is real, and the trend is for more, not less, market opening. When President Bush lands in Hanoi on Friday, it would be good for him to have PNTR in hand. But it would have been better for him to have it without protectionist carveouts. If America can't set the tone for free markets, who can? Vietnam's economy is a faint shadow of China's. But it's on its way.
越南的“寻租”心态
越南在未来几天中将向外界充分展示，它已经为融入全球经济及遵守其规则做好准备。但两个备受争议的案件无疑令人们对越南能否履行以法治国的承诺产生了严重的质疑。
在越南准备加入世界贸易组织(World Trade Organization)之际，这种质疑更显得合情合理。上周二，世界贸易组织总理事会批准了接纳越南成为其第150个成员国的相关文件。本周，美国总统布什(George W. Bush)以及亚太经济合作组织(Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, 简称：APEC) 21个成员国的其他领导人将齐聚河内参加在那里举行的第14届APEC首脑峰会。
鉴于美籍越南人Thong Nguyen "Cuc" Foshee被长期拘禁，布什总统是否会批准认可越南加入WTO的文件仍不得而知。来自佛罗里达州的Thong Nguyen "Cuc" Foshee被控密谋颠覆越南共产党政权，她是反抗越南政府的自由越南政府组织(the Government of Free Vietnam)的活动家。
虽然国际社会对此事广泛曝光，美国也对越南施加了外交压力，但是Thong Nguyen "Cuc" Foshee仍在没有审讯的情况下被拘留了14个月。她于上周五在胡志明市的一家法院内与其他六名被告（其中三名是美国人）一同接受审讯，他们被控参与恐怖活动。越南法庭判处三名美国公民入狱15个月。
这个案件激怒了美国国会。佛罗里达州参议员马丁尼兹(Mel Martinez)以此阻止给予越南与美国建立“永久正常贸易关系”地位的法案在此案件被解决前进入投票程序。
如果布什总统在周一前往越南之前没有签署这项法案，根据美国的法律，美国政府将不能承认越南的WTO成员国身份。美国将必须援引一个“非适用”条款：美国在与越南的所有贸易往来不适用WTO相关规则。
即使美国国会在接下来几天内最终通过“永久正常贸易关系”法案，Foshee案件仍将为越南本该奕奕生辉的时刻蒙上阴影。250多名美国商界人士（很多来自财富500强公司）将陪同布什总统前往越南，这次访问本该把美国与越南的双边关系带入一个新时代。
但是，目前越南能否获得永久正常贸易关系地位在最后关头变得扑朔迷离，以及围绕Foshee案件持续不断的争议注定将伴随着这个重要历史时刻的到来。这些状况使外界对越南政府处理其国内及国际事务的能力产生质疑。即使Foshee确实试图激起越南民众的反政府情绪，但是这在大多数国家基本称不上“犯罪”。把Foshee驱逐出境对越南在国际社会的形像所造成的损害要远远小于在未对她审讯的情况下长时间拘留所造成的影响。
另外一个案件同样激起了外界对越南以法治国决心的质疑──荷兰银行控股公司(Dutch bank ABN-AMRO)案件。荷兰银行的两名员工在未受审讯的情况下自3月被拘留，另外两名员工自7月被扣押。所有这四人都被控与越南工商银行(Industrial and Commercial Bank of Vietnam)进行非法外汇交易，最终导致这家国有银行损失了540万美元。
越南监管机构称，由于越南工商银行负责这些交易的工作人员根本没有获得进行外汇交易的资质，荷兰银行的雇员仍违法与她进行交易。监管机构要求荷兰银行先“赔偿”越南工商银行的交易损失，之后才释放全部被拘留的雇员。
越南警方将普通的银行争议定性为犯罪的行为使在越南的外国投资者备受警示。荷兰银行的案件表明越南政府官员仍沉浸在以前中央集权指令式体制的遗风之中。换句话说，国家被看作是经济学意义上“寻租行为”(rent-seeking)的源泉，而企业经营好坏已与此没有什么关系。
在过去，不法利益从腐败中来。现在，外国投资者被日益看作是一个更加有利可图的敲诈目标。但是，随着众多越南公司都利用国家机器的高压手段来解决与外国投资者的争端，这种寻租心态严重地影响了市场力量发挥作用的效力。
法律也就此沦落为从外国合作者那里榨取不法经济利益的工具。越南总理阮晋勇(Nguyen Tan Dung)本月早些时候就荷兰银行案件所做出的指示再次证明了这一点。他表示，如果荷兰银行希望它的雇员得到宽大处理，它就得赔偿540万美元。
Foshee案件及荷兰银行案件都体现了越南在以法治国方面的欠缺，外国投资者也将因此三思而后行。虽然越南为加入WTO以及举办APEC峰会进行了大肆渲染，但是越南在未来的几年中极可能仍是一个充满变数、难以开展生意的国家。
(编者按：Carlyle Thayer是南威尔士大学澳大利亚国防学院(University of New South Wales's Australian Defence Force Academy)的一名政治学教授。）
