CHINA'S CHANGING STRATEGY PUTS SPOTLIGHT ON THE DOLLAR
China made its presence felt in the currency markets this week as the prospect of the country diversifying its massive foreign exchange stockpiles sent the dollar reeling to a ten-week low against the euro and to its weakest level in eighteen months against sterling.
On Monday, China's state television network reported that China's foreign currency reserves, the world's largest, had exceeded $1,000bn for the first time.
Analysts said while the event itself was widely expected, it might spark a debate about the renminbi, which many of China's trading partners believed was undervalued.
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In the event, however, it was the dollar that was thrust into the spotlight as Fan Gang, director of China's National Economic Research Institute and member of China's monetary policy committee, went on the offensive.
Mr Fan said the real problem the world faced today was an overvalued dollar, not only against the renminbi but against all major currencies. “The main responsibility for this imbalance lies with the US Treasury, which is printing too much money,” he said.
Analysts said with 70 per cent of China's reserves thought to be in dollars and Chinese officials making noises about the currency's overvaluation, there was a chance that the country was considering a fundamental change in reserve allocation.
The dollar was then sent tumbling on Thursday after Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People's Bank of China, said the country was “considering lots of instruments” to diversify its foreign exchange reserves.
However, Marc Chandler, currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York, said Mr Zhou's remarks were nothing new and that dollar bears had merely used them as an excuse to sell the greenback.
“The real source of pressure on the dollar at present is not China's $1,000bn of reserves, but the US's $80bn, which is roughly the value of the US Treasury bonds maturing and coupon payments due on November 15,” said Mr Chandler. He added that foreign investors would probably be receiving about 40 per cent of those payments.
中国“分散储备论”压低美元
上周，全球外汇市场感受到了中国的存在。由于外界预计中国可能对其庞大的外汇储备实行多元化，美元兑欧元汇率跌至10周来的最低点，兑英镑汇率也创下18个月新低。
中国国家电视台上周一报道称，中国外汇储备已首次突破1万亿美元，位居全球首位。
分析师表示，尽管这已在市场普遍预期之中，但它可能会引发一场有关人民币汇率的争论。中国许多贸易伙伴认为人民币币值被低估。
不过，美元在这件事中成了市场关注的焦点，因为中国国民经济研究所(National Economic Research Institute)所长、中国央行货币政策委员会委员樊纲在汇率问题上反守为攻。
樊纲表示，目前世界面临的真正问题是美元的高估，不仅是美元兑人民币汇率高估，美元兑所有主要货币汇率都高估。他表示：“这种不平衡现象的主要责任，在于美国财政部滥发美元钞票。”
分析师表示，中国的外汇储备可能有70%为美元资产，而中国政府官员宣称美元币值高估，因此，中国可能正在考虑对其外汇储备的构成进行根本调整。
中国央行行长周小川上周四表示，中国正“考虑多种投资工具”来分散外汇储备投资组合。在他讲话之后，美元汇率旋即下跌。
但纽约Brown Brothers Harriman的外汇策略师马克?钱德勒(Marc Chandler)表示，周小川的言论并不新鲜，看跌美元的投资者只是利用这些言论作为抛出美元的借口。
钱德勒表示：“美元当前压力的真正来源，不是中国的1万亿美元外汇储备，而是美国的800亿美元――美国国债在11月15日需要还本付息的大致金额。”他补充道，外国投资者可能获得其中约40%。
