sunyuting1 -Take on the street

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At the SEC I met regularly with top mutual fund executives who loved to extol the virtues of their clean industry. They were right to a degree: it has been free from major scandal for decades. But the industry has a lot to answer for, and it has been slow to respond to criticism. The way that funds are sold and managed reveals a culture that thrives on hype, promotes short-term trading, and withholds important information. The industry misleads investors into buying funds on the basis of past performance, which should be only one of several factors to consider. Some funds are able to get away with overly high fees because investors don’t realize how fees can reduce their returns.



我喜欢千万法，我用压码和右脑给千万别学英语一个杠杆，撬起零基础到达自由王国；压码只有一个指标：通过滞后提高速度，速度就是质量,给它注入一个加速器，就会产生一个个奇迹.
[楼 主] | Posted:2005-01-13 13:15|
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Take on the street   (较量华尔街)

THE TAIL WAGGING THE DOG?

Why have mutual funds grown so fast over the past two decades? The creation of the individual Retirement Account fueled the early boom years by allowing investors to put their retirement savings into tax-protected mutual funds. When corporate 401(k) pension plans in the late 1980s began offering employees a menu of mutual funds in which to invest, millions more jumped aboard. But the bull market in stocks in the 1990s really broke the dam.

As the amount of money in mutual funds, part of what Wall Street call the “buy side,” has grown, so has the industry’s clout. Today, funds own 20 percent of all publicly traded shares.

Is that too much power? Most experts say mutual funds aren’t the tail wagging the dog―yet.



我喜欢千万法，我用压码和右脑给千万别学英语一个杠杆，撬起零基础到达自由王国；压码只有一个指标：通过滞后提高速度，速度就是质量,给它注入一个加速器，就会产生一个个奇迹.
[1 楼] | Posted:2005-01-13 13:33|
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Take on the street   (较量华尔街)

Mutual funds have been wildly successful marketing themselves as the investor’s best friend. They offer hassle-free, professional portfolio management and a wide array of fund choices. In 1980 Americans invested $100 billion in some five hundred funds. But by 1993, those numbers had ballooned to $1.6 trillion and more than 3,800 funds. Less than a decade later, by the end of 2001, the number of funds had more than doubled to 8,200 and the amount invested in them had

more than quadrupled to $6.6 trillion--more than the $6 trillion in bank accounts. Today there are more mutual funds than there are public companies.



我喜欢千万法，我用压码和右脑给千万别学英语一个杠杆，撬起零基础到达自由王国；压码只有一个指标：通过滞后提高速度，速度就是质量,给它注入一个加速器，就会产生一个个奇迹.
[2 楼] | Posted:2005-01-13 13:40|
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Take on the street   (较量华尔街)

CHAPTER TWO

THE SEVEN DEADLY SINS OF MUTUAL FUNDS

As I prepared to join the Securities and Exchange Commission in 1993, I knew I had to sell all my stocks and bonds to avoid even the appearance of a conflict of interest. No SEC chairman can sit in judgment of a company in which he owns stock, so I had already begun exploring my options. I could buy either government bonds or mutual funds. With the help of an investment adviser, I decided it would be best to put my money into mutual funds.

As I pored over fund prospectuses, what really got under my skin was that the documents were impossible to understand. At first I was embarrassed. Then it hit me: if someone with twenty-five years in the securities business couldn’t decipher the jargon, imagine the frustration for the average investor.



我喜欢千万法，我用压码和右脑给千万别学英语一个杠杆，撬起零基础到达自由王国；压码只有一个指标：通过滞后提高速度，速度就是质量,给它注入一个加速器，就会产生一个个奇迹.
[3 楼] | Posted:2005-01-13 13:45|
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Take on the street   (较量华尔街)

Of course, you will also want to know what the commission on each transaction will be. Will there be any other ongoing costs? Is the com- mission negotiable?

Once you make an investment, you will get a piece of mail known as a confirmation slip. Be sure to read it, and then file it. This is the notice that your order has been completed; it will include the price you paid and the commission charged.



我喜欢千万法，我用压码和右脑给千万别学英语一个杠杆，撬起零基础到达自由王国；压码只有一个指标：通过滞后提高速度，速度就是质量,给它注入一个加速器，就会产生一个个奇迹.
[4 楼] | Posted:2005-01-13 13:51|
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http://www.enrally.com/yinpin/free/take%20on%20the%20street/ws14-3.rm
Take on the street   (较量华尔街)

● How many clients do you currently serve?

● Have you ever been disciplined for a violation of the securities laws? You can check the answer by calling the NASD's public disclosure hotline, 1-800-289-9999.

● Can you supply references?

And don't forget to ask about the risk involved in the securities your broker is recommending. One way to help you understand risk is to ask your broker to describe the worst-case scenario, the best possible outcome, and the most likely result of this investment. It's also good to know how easy or difficult it would be to liquidate, or sell, the investment. Some investments are difficult to unload, and you should know that beforehand.



我喜欢千万法，我用压码和右脑给千万别学英语一个杠杆，撬起零基础到达自由王国；压码只有一个指标：通过滞后提高速度，速度就是质量,给它注入一个加速器，就会产生一个个奇迹.
[5 楼] | Posted:2005-01-13 13:57|
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Take on the street   (较量华尔街)

● Will the firm allow me to pay a fee, based on the total assets in my account, instead of commissions?

● Does the firm have a training program that pays brokers a salary for a year, instead of a two-month training program, after which the broker is paid a commission?

● Does the firm ever pay up-front bonuses to recruit brokers away from other firms?

● Does the firm hold sales contests to induce brokers to sell more of a certain product, whether in-house or not?

● What is your experience and training? How many brokerage firms have you worked for?

● Where do you get your stock and bond recommendations?

● If you recently changed firms, are you receiving special compensation for having switched firms, or any other kind of bonus plan?



我喜欢千万法，我用压码和右脑给千万别学英语一个杠杆，撬起零基础到达自由王国；压码只有一个指标：通过滞后提高速度，速度就是质量,给它注入一个加速器，就会产生一个个奇迹.
[6 楼] | Posted:2005-01-13 14:02|
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http://www.enrally.com/yinpin/free/take%20on%20the%20street/ws14-1.rm
Take on the street   (较量华尔街)

If you choose to invest through a broker, don't let him do anything until you have a chance to meet face-to-face. Try to establish a rapport, and keep in constant touch.

Make sure you and your broker map out an investment strategy------and stick with it. Good brokers will suggest investments that match your financial wherewithal and future goals, and help you develop a roadmap to get there. The two of you should write all this down and periodically review it.

When shopping for a broker, here is a checklist of questions to ask, so you can decide if this is the right broker for you:

● Does your firm emphasize in-house products over the products of other companies ? What percent of in-house products (e.g., mutual funds) does your firm sell, versus products originated by other firms?



我喜欢千万法，我用压码和右脑给千万别学英语一个杠杆，撬起零基础到达自由王国；压码只有一个指标：通过滞后提高速度，速度就是质量,给它注入一个加速器，就会产生一个个奇迹.
[7 楼] | Posted:2005-01-13 14:06|

Part I
Interview: Martha Stewart---Allan (slow)

Part 2
Market briefing --- Matt (slow)
NYSE --- Julie (slow)
Nasdaq --- Bob (fast)
　

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Interview: Martha Stewart---Allan (slow)

white collar crimes and trials in the news in 2004. martha stewart convict and and serving time if prison. john rigas and his son, timothy, found guilty of fraud and conspiracy. they could be sentencedext week. allan dodds frank has more on why 2005 could be bigger for the courts.

>> in 2004, martha stewart dominated many headlines from federal court although the money involved in her crime was small next to the accounting crimes that were centerstage with enron and worldcom and healthsouth.

>> in the public’s eye, the success of the corporate fraud prosecutions may well be measured not by the martha stewart conviction or the conviction of the rigases in 2004. instead, it will be what happened in the scrushy trial, the ebbers trial and enron cases.

>> former tyco c.e.o. dennis kozlowski and his chief financial officer mark swartz will be retried in new york state court. in a few blocks, bernard ebbers goes to trial. in alabama, richard scrushy of healthsouth goes to trial. in texas, enron executives will be appearing in federal court.

>> these people in trial in 2005 are the c.e.o.’s, the top people in the corporation. it’s really going to put the prosecutors to the test to see if they can make their cases stick against the top people. we’ve seen lower level managers pleading guilty and cooperating. now the tough test is coming to see if the prosecutors can hold the top people liable.

>> one trial carried over the holiday in hartford, connecticut, the jury enteringed the second―entering the second month of deliberations in the trial of walter forbes and shelton.

>> thank you very much. as for stocks, a large part of how things will do in 2005 has to do with how things went in 2004. so, let’s take a look at a few comparative worksheets that rank, well, the benchmark indexes. you can see the first chart that we look at here shows so much of the move that we’ve seen in the fourth quarter really turn things around. you can see 7% spread for the dow in the fourth quarter gave it a 3% gain for the year. s&p, up almost 9%. so we’re talking about indexes that were down that managed to turn themselves positive year to date thanks to the fourth quarter. 14%, almost 15% rally. the nasdaq 15% fourth quarter really dug it out of a hole, giving it an 8.5% gain for the year. looking at it group by group, same story. what were these fourth-quarter winners? 10 1/2 months of this year, the markets really were nowhere. they were down. but hotel, restaurants and leisure stocks catching fire in the fourth quarter, almost 20% here. a mixed year on wall street. one thing about 2005, consumer confidence has been riding as he head into it. why isn’t wal-mart celebrating? we’ll look at wal-mart’s and its recent woes.
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Listen Market briefing --- Matt (slow)
NYSE --- Julie (slow)
Nasdaq --- Bob (fast)

>> welcome to “world financial report.” i am matt nesto. u.s. stocks excreted a second year of gains spurred by a big rally in the fourth quarter in technology shares, companies like apple computer leading the way higher. we’ll be talking about apple in our report from the nasdaq marketsite coming up shortly. for the day, there you see it, the stocks stumbled over the finish line in the last few minutes of trading. down .1% down the board. this is the year-to-date talwith the s&p 500 up 9%, the nasdaq, 8.5% higher. and the dow, the loser by a long shot, in fact, with only a 3.1% gain for the year. before we get off to julie at the new york stock exchange, let’s check on the volume this final trading day of the year, volume at 787 million shares. stocks capping off a two-year rally. julie hyman has some of the year’s winners and losers.

>> stocks finishing 2004 on a slightly down note. stocks had been higher much of the session, relatively unchanged before eroding gains in the final half hour of trading. it was the lightest volume full day of trading today. only 787 million shares trading hands in the session. although we ended the day on a down note, it was a good year for the dow and s&p. the dow the laggard with the gain of 2% and the s&p with a gain of 9%. much of those gains coming in the last quarter of the year. mcdonald’s up almost 30%, a company that gets much of its sales overseas when we had a declining dollar, boosting its profit. merck, the worst performer on the dow in the in year, down 30%, most of the declines coming in the last quarter after the company pulled vioxx from the market . in terms of groups, hotel, restaurant and leisure stocks up almost 38%, led higher by starbucks, the big percentage gainer within that group. steelmakers doing well on the year, up 60% with a good run there, although in the past few sessions, they’ve eroded that gain a little bit. homebuilders doing well on the year, up in the neighborhood of 36% as we’ve had home sales breaking records month after month through the year. on the downside, we didn’t have many losers group-wise on the year. semiconductors were the poorest performers by far, down 22% with concern of rising inventories at many of these companies. intel leading the way down. only four groups within the s&p 500 ended the year lower. that was the year that was. i’ll see you in 2005. i’m julie hyman, bloomberg news, at the the new york stock exchange.

>> let’s take a peek at the nasdaq, a quiet week pretty much all around this holiday week, the nasdaq volume at 1.3 billion shares, too, too, finishing down .1%. bob bowden wraps up 2004’s best and worst performing stocks from the market site report.

>> it was a photo finish but the nasdaq composite index did not quite meet the s&p 500 for 2004, but a lot of nasdaq stars in the year, such as this, the top-performing nasdaq 100 stocks, kmart holdings, those shares up over 300%. the company acquired sears towards the end of the year, although the gains of quadrupling the stock happened before that swition was -- zivings was announced.  acquisition. autodesk makes three-d architectural design software, up over 200%. and apple computer up over 200% on the sales of ipod digital music player. the worst nasdaq 100 stocks include level three communications, positive news about selling services to france telecom in north america, but the stock down 41%. chiron shares, the maker of the flu vaccine pulled due to production problems in the u.k. plant. the worst performing nasdaq whond stocks, synopsis -- synopsies. still, it was an up year for 2004 with tech stocks generally finishing higher. that’s it from the nasdaq marketsite, wishing you a happy new year, i’m bob bowden, bloomberg news.

>> let’s look at the currency markets here because the dollar fell today to a three-week low against the yen. it also locked in its third consecutive annual drop against the yen on expectations japan will let the yen continue to strengthen. so you bought less yen, 103 yen per dollar. however, the euro and pound fell, so the dollar gained there. mixed session for the dollar. on to bonds, we go, the bonds up, 10-year yields falling to 2.22. the five-year also inching higher. two-year note is wrapping up, we should point out, its worst year since 1999 as a result of five federal reserve rate increases. andrew harding, overseeing $6 billion in fixed income assets at national city, expects the fed to raise rates a couple more times in 2005 but is bullish for bonds.

>> i just don’t see people backing out of the bond market . when the 10-year note gets to 4.5 or if it gets to 4.75, i think you’ll see money pouring into it. the technicals are very good for the bond market ex-the federal deficit.

>> if you have to buy the bond market , bill fitzgerald favors municipal bonds, tax-free bonds and says that in 2005, state and local governments are in better financial shape than they were a few years ago.

>> at a time when the federal government is issuing more and measure treasury securities, with the supply municipal bonds declining, they should outperform in 2005.

>> he says one state that is still struggling is california because it has about a $6 billion budget deficit. j.p. morganchase led the pack among banks that lent a record $2.3 trillion in 2004, spurred by a surge in mergers and acquisitions and decline in borrowing costs. the amount of loans made this year was up 53% year on year. j.p. morgan arranged 32% of the 1.26 trillion in loans made in the u.s. bank of america and citigroup, second and third. in europe, barclays, the biggest lender. in the u.s., executives and directors were just as impressed with the stock market ‘s rally in the final two months of the year. corporate insiders were so impressed, they sold $51 billion worth of shares in their own companies this year, the largest amount since 2000 when shares of internet-related companies plunge. purchases also rose, up 13%, to $2.11 billion. executives at technology companies top the list of corporate sellers. bill gates from microsoft sold close to 82 million shares of his own stock for about $2.2 billion. michael dell at his own company sold 32 million of his own stock, working out to a little over $1 billion. and larry ellison of oracle sold 87 million shares. we’ll talk about a fund making noise. investors poured $1.3 billion into the streettracks gold fund last month, the largest inflow into an exchange-traded fund. streettracks gold trust is the first fund traded on the new york stock exchange to be a proxy for gold. it enables investors to buy gold without the risk and volatility of futures contracts and options. demand has been spurred by fund managers barred from owning physical commodities who want to bet this year’s rally in the precious metal will continue into 2005. if you thought 2004 was busy with the martha stewart trial, wait until you see what’s on tap legally speaking in the new year. we’ll look at the high-profile cases centerstage in 2005. that’s next.
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我喜欢千万法，我用压码和右脑给千万别学英语一个杠杆，撬起零基础到达自由王国；压码只有一个指标：通过滞后提高速度，速度就是质量,给它注入一个加速器，就会产生一个个奇迹.
[10 楼] | Posted:2005-01-18 17:34|

Part I
Oil prices --- Su (fast)
NYSE --- Julie (slow)

Part 2
Market briefing --- Cathy (slow)
Asia Pacific markets --- David (slow)
　

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Oil prices --- Su (fast)
NYSE --- Julie (slow)

>> 9:12 a.m. in sydney, a rainy tuesday in the city. we expect rain to ease in the morning but showers redeveloping in the afternoon with possible thunderstorms. high temperature is 32 degrees celsius. the first trading day in the year in the energy markets begins with a plunge in oil prices. rising temperatures in the u.s. sent crude futures down in new york trading. at one point, prices fellulose to $41 a barrel. heating oil futures dropped, as well. what’s the story, su?

>> cathy, cuts demand and causes investors to scramble and readjust positions, leading to the volatility today. analysts say more volatility is ahead. weather is the story here in the u.s. it’s unseasonably warm at a time when imports have surged, supplies have jumped and refineries have boosted heating oil output. forecasters expect temperatures to remain higher than normal in the northeastern u.s. over the next week to 10 days. that’s the part of the country that uses 80% of the nation’s heating oil. refco’s marshall steeves says we’re almost at the mid winter mark and it’s now clear initial forecasts were wrong.

>> at the outset of the winter, most of the private forecasters were calling for a cold-than -- colder-than-normal winter, above-normal heating oil demand but to date, the opposite has been the case. it’s true things could turn around but for now it looks like we’ll see a normal winter or perhaps a below normal winter in terms of heating degree days.

>> heating degree days refers to the amount of energy used to heat buildings and we think that will be lower than normal. supply concerns are easing around the world, as well. on friday, rosneft took control of yukos’ former oil production unit. bear stearns michael deuceas -- dudas sees a counter trend in the u.s. dollar and middle east driving trading.

>> one of the things, not just oil, but commodities in general, when we come up to the iraq elections at the end of the month, those will be very, very big headline events, a lot of news. that will send sentiment shifts into the marketplace so i think that’s what we’ll see in 2005.

>> he’s not alone in predicting a wild ride for oil prices in the months ahead. morgan stanley’s byron wien puts oil at the top of his list for investment surprises in the new year, saying oil may take the trophy for most volatile commodity. his prediction is that oil prices may swing between $30 to $60 a barrel in the next 12 months, that’s a buckle your seat belt warning for investors. prices rose 34% in 2004. so, again, caecket, a story we’ll continue to follow through 2005, one of the top.

>> it may all depend on the weather. thank you, su. u.s. stocks fall in first trading day of 2005, led by energy and other commodities. the s&p 500 closed lower by .8%, the dow jones lower by .5% and the nasdaq losing more than 1%. julie hyman reports from the new york stock exchange.

>> a drop in the price of crude oil did not help stocks today. a couple of reasons for that. we saw energy stocks as really a heavy weight within the s&p 500, down just about 3%, accounting for between 1/4 and 1/3 of the drop in the s&p 500. also we saw a rotation out of the best performers of 2004, really selling of those kinds of stocks today. energy falling into that category, up, as you can see, 25% last year. some of the big declines today coming from exxon-mobil, chevrontexaco, conocophillips and schlumberger leading the way down. exxon-mobil, about a week ago, was trading at a record high. we saw a similar move in oil services stocks for the same reasons, that index with its biggest decline in about a month. it was also a great performer last year, up just about 28%. some of the big declines within that group led by transocean, also nabors, one of the other big decliners within that group. also today, we saw a similar phenomenon with steel stocks, down almost 4%. again, this was the big performer in 2004, in a rotation out of this particular group. in 2004, up 55%. we have had concern creeping into the market about exports out of china potentially putting pressure on steel prices because there will be too much supply coming to market . some of the great performers of 2004, allegheny technologies leading the stocks in terms of percentage declines. also in today’s session, limiting some of the declines on the dow, although not doing much by day’s end, were shares of wal-mart. that company saying december same-store sales rose 3%, at the high end of their previous forecast. this is their biggest monthly gain since july with a currently of after-christmas shoppers. i’m julie hyman, bloomberg news, at the new york stock exchange.

>> coming up, the dollar rises against the euro. we’ll ask a senior currency strategist with the bank of new york whether he thinks gains are sustainable.

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Listen Market briefing --- Cathy (slow)
Asia Pacific markets --- David (slow)

welcome to “live” from hong kong, i’m catherine yang. coming up in the next hour, we’ll wrap up the day’s market action in new york, including a live report on crude oil’s drop. oil drops 3% in the first trading day of the year. higher-than-expected temperatures in the eastern% -united states cut demand for heating oil. the northeast accounts for 80% of the country’s residential heating oil consumption. the national weather service predicts warmer temperatures starting january 8 to 12. we’ll have more on will oil markets in a live report from new york in 10 minutes. the dollar jumped from a record low versus the euro back into the 1.34 range. and you’re looking the live market close on your screen now. the euro worth 1.3466 to the dollar, the yen, 102.79. a report indicating u.s. manufacturing grew at a quicker-than-expected rate helped lift the dollar. the i.s.m. index rose to a four-month high, the second straight month of gains. exporters boosted the index. on wall street, u.s. stocks fall on the first day of trade. investors sold some of last year’s best performers after disappointing data on employment and construction spending. all three benchmark index his reached three-year highs last week. the i.s.m. employment index had its weakest reading in a year, falling to 52.7 in december. the labor department’s monthly jobs report is released january 7. energy shares fell in line with the fall in oil prices. technology shares also fell after sun microsystems was downgraded to underperform from market perform by an analyst at sanford c. bernstien. the rally in the 10-year note stalls after the i.s.m. manufacturing index rose in december. continued growth in manufacturing may prompt the fed to keep increasing rates, lowering the appeal of government debt. asian stocks fall in u.s. trade. chinese oil companies including petrochina and cnooc declined. the bank of new york’s indexes that track asian a.d.r.’s fell and nikkei futures point to a lower start for japanese stocks. the tokyo stock exchange opens for the first time this year, beginning with a ceremonial hand-clapping event which we will bring you to live. financial markets in asian land china, australia and thailand also release business. thailand releases december consumer priss this afternoon in bangkok and economists we surveyed expect the inflation rate in thailand held at a five-month low of 3%. an index measuring australian manufacturing activity probably rose last month. those figures are due in about 20 minutes. david tweed joins us from sydney with more on how markets may open in the region this morning. good morning, david. let’s start with australia, first. what are you watching?

>> in australia, we’re looking at the three related factors which will probably have an impact throughout the region. we had the drop in crude futures as we see there are warmer-than-usual weather in the united states, so crude futures down 3.1%. in australia, we’d expect to see oil stocks declining in line with those futures, looking for woodside petroleum and b.h.p. that said, u.s. manufacturing in december did grow, another story we’re reporting today. one of the reasons why is that some of the economists we’ve been speaking to say that the decline in crude prices from the record highs reached last year is giving manufacturers and consumers some confidence and so we’re seeing that manufacturing is in fact responding to that. and at the same time, we see copper prices up 2.1% in new york, trying at a 15-year high, that is, of course, good for mining companies in australia, where, of course, extremely dependent on commodity exports. we might see rio tinto, stocks like that, trading higher in australia going into the open. that said, i might mention to you that b.h.p. billiton’s american depository receipts were trading at the end of the close in new york around about 15 cents lower than their close when last traded here in australia. as for the futures here, we don’t have trade in the futures so we don’t have an indication by looking at those.

>> what about for westfields. how are those shares reacting to last week’s refinancing?

>> i thought a surprise that story, given that many were away. we had a $4 billion debt refinances, a loan, the biggest syndicated loan in australia with 34 banks participating. they were oversubscribed, they got $4 billion, showing the confidence that banks have in what westfield is doing. last year it merged three business units into one so could be able to go out and finance its development at a lower interest rate. the shares rose 2% in the two days after the financing was announced and dropped 1.2% on friday. so it will be interesting to see how they react on the first day of trading here in australia. cathy?

>> and finally, how have national foods’ shares done since the takeover offer by san miguel.

>> it broke last week, san miguel, the philippines’ brewer, said it would make an offer for the stock at $6. there is a rival offer from a new zealand dairy cooperative at $5.45. we’ll have to see what fonterra, the new zealand company, actually does. it’s a holiday in new zealand today but we could see something happening as the week progresses. back to you.

>> thank you, david. and in news outside the business world, the global relief efforts to help those hit the hardest by asian tsunami disaster tops world news. ron madison has the latest on that story and more from world news in tokyo.

>> u.s. president george w. bush has enlisted the help of two former presidents to help out with the tsunami efforts. former president george bush and bill clinton will lead the campaign to raise funds from the private sector.

>> to draw even greater amounts of private donations, i have asked two of america’s most distinguished private citizens to head a nationwide charitiable fund-raising efforts. they bring tremendous leadership experience to that role and they bring good hearts.

>> meantime, aid is reaching asian coastal areas now. ships, planes and helicopters carrying food, clothing, clean water and medicine have converged on jaesh and -- indonesia and other countries. more than 150,000 are said to be dead across the region. indonesia is the hardest hit. rescue efforts continue in sri lanka where some 30,000 have lost their lives. u.s. secretary of stateand jeb bush will be among those leaders attending a summit in jakarta in february. iraqi insurgents launched car bomb attacks throughout the country. the press reports iraqi officials as saying four people died in the suicide blast near the baghdad headquarters of prime minister iyad allawi’s party. and a car bomb attack north of baghdad killed 18 iraqi national guardsmen and one civilian. the press reports the u.s. military as saying the soldiers died when a car bomb was detonated near the bus they were traveling in. that is the latest on world news.

>> thank you, ron. after the break, we’ll learn what analysts are saying about the outlook for oil prices in a live report from new york. this is “bloomberg live.”
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我喜欢千万法，我用压码和右脑给千万别学英语一个杠杆，撬起零基础到达自由王国；压码只有一个指标：通过滞后提高速度，速度就是质量,给它注入一个加速器，就会产生一个个奇迹.
[9 楼] | Posted:2005-01-18 17:33|

Part I
Nasdaq --- June (slow)
Asia Pacific market --- David (slow)

Part 2
Market briefing --- Cathy (slow)
Inflation --- Susan (slow)
Tokyo market --- Ron (slow)
　

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Nasdaq --- June (slow)
Asia Pacific market --- David (slow)

>> the nasdaq two-day drop of 3.1% is the largest in five month. june grasso filed this report from the nasdaq market site in times square.

>> iver economic group on the nasdaq ended the day lower with technology shares leading the decline. analyst downgrades began the drop in computer share. dell the biggest drag on the nasdaq computer index after the biggest maker of personal computers was cut to outperform from strong buy by raymond james on valuation. share of dell had come to within 10% of analysts target price. sun microsystems, which led the nasdaq lower yesterday after a downgrade from sanford bernstein is the worst performer of the nasdaq 100 percentage after a merrill lynch analyst lowered the fiscal first quarter revenue estimate. he reduced the earnings estimate by one cent to two cents a share. and amazon.com also one of the worst performing stocks on the nasdaq 100 by percentage. at the world’s biggest internet retailer was reduced to sell from hold by analysts at citigroup smith barney on concern the company may see limited margin expansion and lower north american sales growth than the competitors. it led internet shares down. monster worldwide t owner of the most used internet site for employment advertising was cut to hold from buy by american technology research, google, yahoo, ask jeeves all down. not all computer shares did drop, however. microsoft advanced after j.p. morgan raised its second-quarter earnings per share target for microsoft 3% to 34 cents saying the company will benefit from an improving software spending environment and apple computer was one of the best performers on the nasdaq 100 after j.p. morgan analyst raised the first-quarter earnings forecast. i’m june grasso, bloomberg news, at the nasdaq market site in times square.

>> new zealand stocks rise on the first day of trading this year, setting records along the way. for the latest market action, we go to david tweet in sydney. david, what is behind the gain we’re seeing this morning in the new zealand market ?

>> it is actually the eighth straight gain for the new zealand top 50 there or gross 50. and it’s also trading at a record, but you have to remember that’s a small market and it is really dominated by a single stock. that stock is tell com new zealand or telecom corp. of new zealand. it has been increases the dividends and that is one of the reasons we’re seing that stock rise 6% in the last seven days. people have been coming whack back to the dividends. that said, though t new zealand economy is in pretty good shape. it is expected to expand by 4.5% in 2005. sorry, that is the year ending on march 31. and that’s actually faster than the 3.8% increase that analysts or economists surveyed by bloomberg had forecast back in september. so that’s really the story behind the u.s. market . also one other point is the u.s. dollar has been rising against the new zealand dollar, and that does make new zealand stocks cheaper to buy for u.s. investors and new zealand telecom corp. being such a big company in the index is one they tend to go for particularly with the dividend yield. cathy?

>> the australian stock market closed at a record yesterday. how are they expected to open today?

>> not such a rosy picture today. the index futures are down around about 0.7%. the new york a.d.r.’s were down around 2% or 1.9% which is the biggest drop since the beginning of december. the story behind that is the decline in metals price. remember, there is a preponderance of australian mining companies in the a.s.x. 200 that represent about 19% of the index. we saw copper prices sliding almost 9% in new york last night. that was from a 15-year high, i might add. we also saw aluminum prices declining. the reason those prices are declining is because of the increase in the u.s. dollar has created concerns that there will be lower demand for the metals which are all priced in u.s. dollars. and also concern that during 2005 we’re going to see slowing demand growth in china. remember that barclay’s capital in december said it expects china demand growth for copper to slow to about 10% from 15%. so watch out for companies like rio tinto and companies like b.h.p., of course, phelps dodge in the united states, the world’s second biggest cop prore -- copper producer and the shares dropped 3% in overnight trading. on the upside, though, the decline in the australian dollar against the u.s. currency might be good news for some of the australian exporters or companies active in the u.s. look at news corporation whose shares did drop 2% in u.s. trading and companies such as computer serve and westfield group. back to you, cathy.

>> thanks for that, david. after the break, manufacturing activity in singapore accelerates in december. the head of research will deliver the outlook for the economy and markets next.
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Inflation --- Susan (slow)
Tokyo market --- Ron (slow)

earthquake and tsunami. powell and florida governor jeb bush are in jakarta ahead of tomorrow’s summit of asian leaders. the dollar rises the most in more than half a year against the euro and yen. stronger orders of u.s. factories helped the dollar release the recent decline. u.s. stocks fall after comments from the federal reserve show policy makers believe rates are too low to contain inflation and rising prices may curb economic growth. the nasdaq dropped to the biggest two-day loss since august. and japanese car makers win u.s. market share from detroit’s big three. toyota, nissan, and honda report december sales rose more than 20%, while general motors declined. toyota also became the first foreign car maker to sell more than two million vehicles in the u.s. in one year. a jury convicts cendant’s former vice chairman kirk shelton of 12 charges including fraud and conspiracy. the same jury says it could not reach a verdict on 16 charges against the former chairman walter forbes. they were accused of trying to inflate earnings before the company was bought out by h.f.s. in 1998. cendant was created out of that merger. cendant shares are still trading below the price on the day the merger was completed nearly seven years ago. the company controls franchise brand names including avis, ramada hotel, and century 21 real estate among others. the u.s. federal reserve says interest rates are still too low to keep inflation stable. minutes of the fed’s december 14 meeting show that policy makers are concern that rising prices may become a risk to growth. for more on what hah means for the u.s. economy and global growth, we’ll speak to susan gossling. good to see you. what do you make of the fed’s comments on inflation?

>> i think the fed is exactly right. interest rates in the united states are relatively low compared to inflation. the fed is being quite slow during this growth cycle to raise interest rates. maybe a little bit behind the curve and i think it’s encouraging we’re seeing they’re continuing to move towards the normalization of rates.

>> now, consensus among economists and the bush administration show u.s. growth this year to be about 3.5%, which is lower than last year’s. what is your own forecast?

>> well, we always see that there are a range for potential outcomes for growth and we like to take into account a range of possibilities to get a robust outcome from the investment strategy for investors. however, what we can see for the u.s. is savings rates and particularly household savings rates are relatively low and at some point they will need to increase and when they increase, growth will be slower in the united states. that may or may not occur this year. expectations are that it would during 2004 and didn’t come through. as time goes on, it does become more likely. at some point we will see a period of slow growth in the u.s.

>> what about for china? we have some economists not ruling out the possibility that china may be headed for a hard landing. do you think that’s likely?

>> well f you go go about a year ago, industrial production running 20% and there were lots of fear of hard landing. what we have seen since then is well managed policy responses from the government that’s taken industrial production reading now down to below 15%. really some very judicious management of policy there is that has significantly reduced the risk of a hard landing in china.

>> central bankers there are gathering for the annual meeting this week. are you expecting any significant announcement from them, especially on the revaluation of the chyneeze currency?

>> well, china has been under some pressure particularly from the u.s. who sees the currency as being undervalued and that giving them an unfair competitive advantage. so it’s possible we may see some adjustment, perhaps a staged series of adjustments or even possible at some point we may see a repegging with the basket of currencies to pat that. and the issue is a revaluation will result in less job creation in china and that may be politically unacceptable. it’s by no means clear what we’ll see.

>> amidst the uncertainties that you have mentioned, you stress on the importance as having a diversified portfolio for the investors. what are you telling the clients now?

>> well, what we’re telling clients now is we’re in an uncertain environment and that needs to be taken into account. now, that is always the case, but i think there is proof of unl usually high level of uncertainty and if you try to bet on a particular scenario ocurg, chances are you will be wrong. you need to diversify the portfolio and that will protect you against the possibility of a range of different things happening. and it really is what underpins the achievement of long-term financial objectives.

>> got to leave it there. thank you for that, susan. susan gossling of m.l.c. in sydney. in news outside the business world, the effort to help those devastated by last week’s asian earthquake and tsunamis tops the world news. ron madison has that story and more in tokyo.

>> the united nations and other aid groups are using as much as $3 billion pledged to tsunami victims. many of the bottlenecks are starting to clear up and more aid is reaching some of the hardest hit areas of indonesia and sri lanka. in sri lanka, nearly 200 u.s. troops are now on the ground there. associated press says the u.s. plans to deploy about 1,500 marines as well to the country. british military support has also arrived. a military spokesperson said it was important to assess the need before rushing in to help.

>> we think this is important. i think it’s important to identify what specific tasks we could add value in before we start throwing capability forces into the area and almost contributing to the problem rather than attempting to solve it.

>> meantime in indonesia, a plane chartered by the united nations high commissioner for refugees arrived at the airport in jakarta on tuesday morning. it was carrying 92 ton of blankets. the u.n. says it has the use of 40 helicopters for aid delivery. american helicopters are v also been carrying water, biscuit, and other bare necessities to ravaged indonesian communities. the red cross says the death toll in indonesia alone could surpass 100,000. insurgents ambush and kill the governor of baghdad province. the governor hadari was killed as the convoy passed through baghdad’s northern neighborhood. six of the bodyguards were also killed in the attack. the governor was reportedly riding in an armored car. the killing is one of the highest level assassinations since interim iraqi government took power. al-hadaari was the attempt of a failed assassination attempt last year. secretary of state colin powell says the killing shows insurgents are determined to try to stop the january elections. cathy, that is the latest look at world news. back to you.

>> thanks for that, ron. and coming up, computer-related shares lead the nasdaq lower. a report from new york will wrap up the day’s trading action.
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我喜欢千万法，我用压码和右脑给千万别学英语一个杠杆，撬起零基础到达自由王国；压码只有一个指标：通过滞后提高速度，速度就是质量,给它注入一个加速器，就会产生一个个奇迹.
[8 楼] | Posted:2005-01-18 17:33|