Bar Gets Higher for Vietnam
Frustration grows
as years of effort fail
to bring membership
HANOI -- If this were a decade ago, Vietnam might easily be allowed membership in the World Trade Organization.
It boasts a fast-growing economy, has more than 80 million people and is a heavyweight global competitor in everything from coffee and textiles to catfish and shrimp.
But Vietnamese businesses and government officials fear the goal lines for accession to the WTO have shifted since China became a member in 2001, leaving them wondering what they have to do for Vietnam to win admittance to the global trade body. Others that have been unable to join the WTO include Russia and the Ukraine.
Last week, Vietnamese Deputy Prime Minister Vu Khoan conceded his country couldn't join the WTO -- which has 149 members with newcomer Saudi Arabia -- at the Hong Kong meeting starting today, despite a decade of efforts by Hanoi to improve its legal and regulatory systems to meet international standards. Vietnam now hopes to join by the end of next year.
Frustration is clearly beginning to grow in Hanoi about the inability to overcome obstacles and gain admission to the WTO. Much of the blame is being placed on China, which -- along with some other earlier entrants to the trade group -- has failed to fully meet its commitments to open up its domestic market and eliminate trade subsidies. In some cases, WTO countries are now asking prospective members to liberalize their economies before they can join the trade body.
"China got the best benefit from the WTO process, and now they have flooded the market with their products," says Hoang Van Dung, vice chairman of the Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Hanoi. "When we came along later, all sorts of new conditions were attached to our membership."
China is by no means the only complicating factor. People familiar with Vietnam's negotiations to join the WTO say the bar has also gotten higher because of the greater importance put on intellectual-property rights and other sensitive areas since China's entry. In the four years since Beijing joined, it's natural that membership rules will have evolved in step with the way business is done, those people say.
Vietnam also isn't alone in going through a long process of WTO accession. The biggest economy still outside the trade body, Russia, has been negotiating membership for more than a decade. Doubts about intellectual-property protection and Russia's restrictions on foreign banks opening branches are the main issues delaying access, despite the market-economy status the U.S. and the European Union have already granted it.
In Vietnam's case, the process of preparing to join the WTO has already helped shore up confidence among investors setting up businesses here. But economists and businesspeople agree that finally being granted WTO membership could be a pivotal moment in Vietnam's development and drive a second, long-stalled wave of reforms.
Mr. Dung, who has persistently lobbied Hanoi's Communist government to liberalize its economy, says WTO membership would help protect Vietnam from trade disputes that in recent years have hampered the country's ability to export products such as shrimp. "It's like a defense mechanism," he says. "And that's important to us because we are still largely an agricultural economy" vulnerable to antidumping claims.
Fred Burke, managing partner of law firm Baker & McKenzie LLP in Ho Chi Minh City, says WTO membership would also provide a seal of legitimacy for Vietnam and show it can adhere to a rule-based trading system, as well as help normalize commercial relations with key partners such as the U.S. -- now its largest trading partner.
To be sure, Vietnam hasn't always delivered on reforming its financial sector or making it easier to do business. A new law providing a common set of regulations for local and foreign investors won't take effect until the middle of 2006, having gone through 18 drafts. The law will guarantee investment incentives and allow arbitration overseas to resolve disputes between Vietnamese and foreign partners.
Mr. Burke notes that Vietnam also has been slow to fully implement a 2001 bilateral trade agreement with the U.S. designed to let American businesses set up import and distribution operations in Vietnam. "That hasn't sat well with the international business constituencies who are needed to lobby in favor of Vietnam's accession" to the WTO, he says.
Indeed, Vietnam's major trading partners, particularly the U.S. -- which has seen a trade surplus of $122 million with Vietnam in 1994 turn into a deficit of $4.11 billion by 2004, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce -- are pushing for more access to the financial-services market and more vigorous protection of intellectual-property rights.
The U.S. is also keen for Vietnam to continue being considered a nonmarket economy after joining the WTO -- a label that means the U.S. will be able to file more of the antidumping cases that have already hindered Vietnam's catfish and shrimp exporters.
越南入世谈判障碍重重
倒退十年，越南加入世界贸易组织(World Trade Organization，简称WTO)也许并没那么难。
越南经济高速发展，人口超过8,000万，从咖啡、纺织品到鲶鱼和虾，越南许多产品在全球市场上都有举足轻重的影响力。
不过令越南商界人士和政府官员担心的是，从2001年中国入世后，WTO的球门线已经变换了位置，他们想知道为了打进WTO的大门越南还需要做些什么。俄罗斯和乌克兰也尚未能加入WTO。
越南副总理武宽(Vu Khoan)上周承认，尽管过去10年中越南一直在努力将自己的司法及监管体系提高到国际标准，但在本周二开始的WTO香港会议上越南还是无法实现入世的梦想。现在越南希望在2006年年底加入WTO。算上新加入的沙特阿拉伯，目前WTO共有149个成员。
越南政府对没能克服障碍、成功入世的挫折感显然越来越强了。它将大部分原因归结到中国身上。和其他较早加入WTO的成员一样，中国没能完全兑现开放国内市场、取消贸易补贴的承诺。所以如今在有些情况下，WTO成员要求未来的新成员在入世前就实现经济自由化。
越南工商会(Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry)副主席黄文勇(Hoang Van Dung)说，“中国是入世最大的受益者，现在市场上到处充斥著中国产品。而轮到我们的时候，各种新的附加条件全来了。”
中国绝不是越南入世的唯一干扰因素。据越南入世谈判的知情者说，自中国加入WTO以来，WTO对知识产权和其他敏感领域的问题更加重视了，所以入世的门槛也高了不少。他们说，中国入世四年来，WTO的成员规则随著商业发展一同演变也是很自然的事情。
越南并不是唯一经历漫长入世考验的国家。俄罗斯是被WTO拒之门外的最大的经济体，它的入世谈判已经持续了十多年。虽然美国和欧盟已经承认了俄罗斯的市场经济地位，但是知识产权保护不力和限制外资银行开设分支机构的条例是阻碍俄罗斯入世的主要因素。
其实，越南为入世所做的准备工作已经增强了人们赴越南投资的信心。但是经济学家和商界人士都认为，WTO成员地位对越南的发展和开展被延误了许久的第二轮改革至关重要。
黄文勇曾多次劝说越南的共产党政府放开经济。他说，WTO成员身份将保护越南免受贸易纠纷的困扰，这个问题近些年已经削弱了越南出口虾等产品的能力。他说，“WTO成员地位像个防卫机制，它对我们很重要，因为我们在很大程度上仍是农业经济，”对反倾销指控无力还击。
贝克?麦肯斯国际律师事务所(Baker & McKenzie LLP)驻越南的执行合伙人弗雷德?伯克(Fred Burke)说，WTO成员身份还将为越南提供合法保障，表明它从属于一个按规则办事的贸易体系，而且还可以帮助越南和美国──现在它是越南最大的贸易伙伴──等主要伙伴的贸易关系实现正常化。
诚然，越南在金融领域改革和创造更好商业环境方面还不够积极。一项新的法律将为越南国内外投资者提供一套统一的经商规则，不过它要等到2006年年中才能生效，这部法律已经18次易稿。该法律将出台投资鼓励措施，并允许对越南和外国合作者的贸易纠纷进行海外仲裁。
伯克谈到，越南在严格履行2001年与美国签订的双边贸易协定方面也拖拖拉拉，该协定规定美国公司可以在越南建立进口和销售机构。他说，“这让国际商业团体很不高兴，而越南需要他们为入世摇旗呐喊。”
确实如此，越南主要的贸易伙伴们，尤其是美国，正在努力争取打开该国金融服务业市场的大门，并推动越南加强知识产权保护。根据美国商务部(Department of Commerce)的数字，1994年时美国对越南有1.22亿美元的贸易顺差，而到2004年年时则变成了41.1亿美元的逆差。
美国还盼望越南在入世后仍然保持非市场经济的地位，这样美国就可以继续不断针对越南展开反倾销调查，这种做法已经打击了越南鲶鱼和虾的出口。
