China Promotes 'Peaceful Rise' To Quell U.S. Fears
BEIJING -- Even as Chinese President Hu Jintao and U.S. President George W. Bush gear up to meet in New York today, many Americans are questioning China's longer-term intentions.
Zheng Bijian thinks he has the answer. The consummate Chinese Communist Party insider and confidant of Mr. Hu is promoting a message that China isn't trying to displace the U.S. but is seeking to emerge onto the global stage peacefully. His "peaceful rise" project has gained the support of China's top leaders, with Mr. Hu originally expected to touch on the theme during a weeklong U.S. tour earlier this month.
That visit was postponed in the wake of Hurricane Katrina's devastation. During today's meeting at the United Nations, the two countries' leaders are likely to talk about the value of the yuan and denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, among other issues of bilateral concern.
In the backdrop of the meeting, however, is anxiety about China's rapid rise -- a situation Mr. Zheng is trying to change.
"China must take a different path, a path that none of the late emerging countries has taken in the contemporary world," says Mr. Zheng, a formal man known for choosing his words carefully. Otherwise, he said recently in an interview, China could meet the fates of Germany, Japan and the Soviet Union in the past century, ambitious upstarts foiled by the dominant powers of their time.
Mr. Zheng and his peaceful-rise project offer a rare window into the secretive world of Chinese foreign-policy making at a time when China's leadership is grappling to define the global role of this country of 1.3 billion people. Already, its mighty manufacturing engine, growing diplomatic clout and increasing assertiveness are sparking concern among some people in the U.S. and elsewhere that an emerging China could constitute a threat.
In the U.S., a Pentagon report warns of growing Chinese military might. China's ravenous appetite is contributing to rising oil prices world-wide. A flood of low-price Chinese exports is fraying China's ties with the U.S. and Europe, and its relations with Japan are at a low point.
Of course, the peaceful-rise concept has detractors. U.S. Secretary of State Donald Rumsfeld has questioned why China continues to build up its military if it faces no threat. In China, retired ambassadors have complained that the emphasis on "rise" was counterproductive, scholars close to the ambassadors say. Chinese military officers have objected to the "peaceful" component, saying it gives the impression China won't defend its national interests.
Mr. Zheng is undeterred by such criticisms, and his project is getting a boost by a change in the way Beijing views power. Since the periodic flare-ups with the U.S. over Taiwan and with Southeast Asian nations over territorial disputes that marred Beijing's image in the 1990s, Chinese leaders have been seeking more subtle ways to exercise global influence. They also believe China needs constructive relations both with major powers such as the U.S. and with neighboring countries such as Japan to maintain its fast economic growth, exceeding 9% a year currently, and to overcome daunting domestic challenges, such as a widening wealth gap.
Examples of China's new approach: Beijing's successful bid to host the 2008 Olympics; a free-trade agreement with Southeast Asia that has fueled 30% annual increases in China's import of regional goods in the past two years; and a growing leadership role in the U.S.'s efforts to get North Korea to dismantle its nuclear program.
In some ways, Mr. Zheng, 76 years old, is an unlikely pioneer of a new foreign-policy path. Son of a famous calligrapher and poet, he spent much of his career working in the party's insular propaganda department and focusing on internal matters. Known as a brilliant and visionary thinker, he helped write a critical assessment of Mao Tse-tung and his ruinous, radical policies after Mao's death in 1976, helping lay to rest an era of political struggle and opening the door to economic change.
When market overhauls stalled amid a conservative backlash that followed the crushing of the 1989 Tiananmen Square democracy movement, then-paramount leader Deng Xiaoping tapped Mr. Zheng to compile a series of documents that enshrined rapid economic growth as a goal and encouraged private business. One document Mr. Zheng worked on coined "socialist market economy" -- a somewhat-awkward phrase that nonetheless successfully gave cover to Mr. Deng to allow capitalism to take root.
Mr. Zheng began to focus more on foreign policy as vice president of the Central Party School, then headed by Mr. Hu, revamping the staid academy for midcareer party officials to include classes on modern economics and international affairs. Searching for lessons in recent history, Mr. Zheng commissioned studies on the collapse of the Soviet Union and traveled abroad frequently.
But it was during a trip to the U.S. in winter 2002, soon after Mr. Hu's elevation, that Mr. Zheng decided to spend what should have been his retirement years concentrating on foreign affairs. In a meeting with Condoleezza Rice, then the U.S. national security adviser and an acquaintance of Mr. Zheng, an air of tension crept into the discussions as she pressed him about how China planned to use its rapidly growing power, meeting participants recall. She also asked whether China would be satisfied as a status-quo power.
Mr. Zheng says he left Ms. Rice with a task: figuring out the differences between China's Communist Party and the deposed Soviet Communist Party. He also gave her two books to read, "The Analects" by Chinese philosopher Confucius and a volume of Deng Xiaoping's works.
At the time, Mr. Zheng says, he already was thinking about new foreign-policy directions. He used the phrase "peaceful rise" at a speech in Washington. Still, Ms. Rice's remarks bothered him, suggesting that the U.S. saw China as a threat, scholars close to him say. Returning to Beijing, he wrote a proposal to President Hu, suggesting a wide-ranging research project. Mr. Hu sent the proposal back, scrawling "Initiate research," the scholars say.
Mr. Zheng's team of researchers went to work. They didn't just focus on China's relations with other countries. Research prepared by his team examines pressing domestic issues, such as environmental degradation and income disparities and how, if not handled properly, they could hinder China's peaceful emergence in the world. A report on the reunification of Germany suggests Beijing might be more successful in wooing back Taiwan, a de facto independent island it views as part of China, if it offered a more democratic political system.
In late 2003, Mr. Zheng and China's top leaders began incorporating the term "peaceful rise" in major public addresses. Yet even as the project acquired momentum, opposition began to form at home. The foreign-policy establishment resented Mr. Zheng's sudden influence in their sphere, with some finding fault with the "peaceful" concept and others, with the "rise" aspect. In the face of the criticism, the leadership changed tack -- rhetorically.
In spring 2004, Mr. Hu and other leaders decided to replace the potentially provocative term "peaceful rise" with "peaceful development," researchers involved in the project say. Tellingly, the leadership didn't side with the hawks who opposed the use of the word "peaceful," the researchers say.
Neither Mr. Zheng nor his project appears to have been affected by the terminology shift. " 'Peaceful rise' or 'peaceful development' -- they're four words with the same meaning," Mr. Zheng says. The project has expanded at the leadership's request, he says, drawing on the expertise of nearly 100 researchers and officials.
This spring, before Mr. Hu's originally scheduled trip to the U.S., the Chinese president dispatched Mr. Zheng to deliver a special message to top U.S. officials that China isn't seeking to displace the U.S. and encouraged him to propagate theories from his peaceful-rise project, Mr. Zheng's aides say. Mr. Zheng also sought to get a read for Chinese leaders on the real feelings and views of Americans toward China, the aides say.
Before his trip, Mr. Zheng was briefed by both Mr. Hu, in an hour-long phone conversation, and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, in a two-hour talk in the closely guarded leadership compound of Zhongnanhai, Mr. Zheng's aides say.
In the U.S., he got red-carpet treatment, meeting with Secretary of State Rice, national security adviser Stephen Hadley and other high-ranking officials during an 11-day visit. Mr. Zheng also lunched with former President George H.W. Bush at his vacation home in Kennebunkport, Maine, and even met with Sen. Hillary Clinton.
Mr. Zheng hit on the peaceful-rise theme continually during his visit. The usually media-shy theoretician hosted a rare luncheon for a small group of U.S. reporters in the U.S. capital, where much of the talk focused on the impact of an emerging China on the existing world order.
He stayed so late at a party hosted by Brookings Institution Chairman John Thornton at his New Jersey home, just so that he could answer all the guests' questions about China and peaceful rise, that Mr. Zheng's aides, waiting up for him past midnight back at the hotel, became worried. Mr. Zheng made such an impression that Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Timothy Geithner, a guest, proposed introducing him to Treasury Secretary John Snow.
Mr. Zheng, for his part, came away from his U.S. visit with an added sense of urgency, believing that "it is a very crucial time for U.S.-China relations," says Wang Boyong, an aide who accompanied him on the trip. "There are a lot of opportunities but also a lot of challenges. If we don't manage it well, the U.S.-China relationship could retreat."
One challenge, of course, is continued skepticism overseas that China can, or wants to, orchestrate a peaceful emergence onto the world stage.
Sitting in his book-lined office decorated with the calligraphy "Pillar of the Nation" by a former Chinese leader, Mr. Zheng carefully measures out a response. China has been on an upward path for 25 years since it began economic overhauls, with few serious disruptions to the world, he says. Still, he adds, its peaceful rise will be a lengthy process, stretching until midcentury, when China becomes a developed nation.
"We don't expect you to totally believe that we can definitely realize the peaceful rise of China," he says. "But there are still decades to come to see how we do."
中国研究员纵论“中国和平崛起”
在中国国家主席胡锦涛与美国总统布什(George W. Bush)即将于纽约会晤之际，很多美国人对中国的长远意图提出了疑问。
郑必坚则认为他可以给出答案。作为中国共产党资深内部人士及主席胡锦涛的心腹，郑必坚正在大力宣扬：中国并非试图取代美国地位，而是选择了争取和平的国际环境来发展自己，又以自身发展来维护世界和平的道路。他的“和平崛起”观点已经获得中国领导人的高度支持，按照原定计划胡锦涛将在本月早些时候的访美行程中谈及这一主题。
本次出访因飓风卡特里娜给美国带来巨大灾害而被迫推迟。两国领导人将于周二出席联合国首脑会议时在纽约会晤，预计将讨论人民币汇率、朝鲜半岛无核化等双边关心的问题。
但在两国元首会晤的背后却有著不和谐的声音，原因是中国的迅速崛起让某些美国人紧张不安－－而郑必坚正在试图让他们转变观念。
“中国必须选择一条不同的道路，一条当代世界新兴国家都从未走过的道路，”一向以言辞谨慎著称的郑必坚说。他表示，否则的话中国可能会步上世纪德国、日本、和苏联的后尘，这些雄心勃勃的新兴国家最终都败给了同一时代的强国。
郑必坚以及他的和平崛起理论为深入了解蒙著一层神秘面纱的中国外交决策过程提供了难得的线索，此时正值中国领导人为这个拥有13亿人口的大国定义将在国际舞台上扮演什么角色而煞费苦心之际。中国经济强力增长点的制造业、不断壮大的外交影响力以及越来越足的自信心已经成为美国及其他地区很多人的心头之患，他们称中国的崛起将成为一个威胁。
在美国，五角大楼的一份报告已经对中国军力的扩张发出警示。中国如饥似渴的石油需求导致全球油价上涨。价格低廉的中国出口商品激化了中国与美国及欧洲的贸易摩擦，中国与日本的关系也陷入低谷。
和平崛起的理念屡屡遭到抨击。美国国防部长(Secretary of Defense)拉姆斯菲尔德(Donald Rumsfeld)提出疑问：如果中国没有面临威胁，为什么要继续加强军事力量。在中国，据与某些退休大使有联系的学者透露，退休大使们抱怨称，强调“崛起”将适得其反。中国军方官员则拒绝接受“和平”理念，他们说，这会让人误以为中国不会积极捍卫国家利益。
但郑必坚并没有因为种种批评而气馁，随著中国政府对国家实力的认识逐渐转变，他的理论也得到了广泛推广。自九十年代中美两国就台湾问题不时发生口角、与东南亚国家发生领土纠纷并损害中国政府形象后，中国领导人一直用更为灵活多变的方式来施加全球影响力。他们也相信，中国需要与美国等超级大国以及日本等邻国建立建设性伙伴关系，这样才有助于保持其超过9%的经济增长率、解决贫富差距扩大等严峻的国内问题。
有关中国施展新的外交手法并取得成功的例子不胜枚举：北京申办2008年奥运会(Olympics)获得成功；与东南亚国家联盟签署的自由贸易协议使得中国过去两年来从东南亚地区进口的商品每年增长30%；此外还在美国敦促朝鲜放弃核武器计划的谈判中发挥越来越重要的核心作用。
从某些方面来讲，郑必坚不太可能成为中国推行新外交政策的领军人物。作为一位书法家和诗人的儿子，他将主要精力放在了中国共产党宣传部的工作和内部事务上。这位才华横溢且充满理想主义气息的思想家在1976年毛泽东逝世后帮助撰写了对毛泽东功过的科学评价，并在结束政治斗争，倡导改革开放方面发挥了重要作用。
1989年天安门事件过后市场经济改革一度陷于停顿，随后当时的领导人邓小平指定郑必坚撰写了一系列强调以经济增长为目标、鼓励发展私营经济的重要文献。
身为中央党校(Central Party School)副校长（当时的校长由胡锦涛兼任）的郑必坚开始把关注重点转向对外政策，并一改党校死气沉沉的学术气氛，为在校的党内中高级干部新开了现代经济和国际事务等课程。在确定近代史课程时，郑必坚对苏联的解体作了大量研究，曾为此多次出国考察。
但2002年冬天，就在胡锦涛出任国家主席不久，郑必坚在一次出访美国的行程中决定，要把接下来的研究重点放在外交事务上。而这时他已是本该退休的年龄。
在与时任美国国家安全事务助理赖斯(Condoleezza Rice)会面时，虽然两人早已是老熟人，但据当时在座的人士事后回忆说，当赖斯追问郑必坚中国计划如何运用不断增强的国力时，现场还是悄悄弥漫起一种紧张气氛。赖斯还问到中国对当前国力的现状是否满意。
郑必坚说，他当时给赖斯留了一项任务：研究一下中国共产党与已经解体的苏联共产党之间的区别。他还留给赖斯两本书，一本是记录中国古代思想家孔子(Confucius)言论的《论语》(The Analects)，一本是已去世的中国领导人邓小平的著作。
郑必坚说，当时他已经开始考虑外交政策走向的问题了。他在华盛顿的一次演讲中提到了“和平崛起”一词。不过，据他身边的其他学者说，赖斯的话还是让他感到不安，它暗示美国已将中国视为一种威胁。回到北京后，他给胡锦涛写了一份报告，提出进行一项涉及广泛内容的课题研究。据说，胡锦涛在报告上批示他著手开始。
于是，郑必坚的课题组开始了研究工作。他们关注的不仅是中国与其他国家的关系，还涉及一些紧迫的国内问题（如环境恶化、收入差距拉大等）以及如果处理不当将如何影响中国在世界的和平崛起。研究组在一份有关德国统一问题的报告中提出，如果中国转向更民主的政治制度，那么在统一台湾的问题上或许可以做得更成功。
2003年年底，郑必坚和中国高层领导人开始在各种重要的公开场合提到“和平崛起”的概念。然而，这个战略在逐渐获得推动的同时，在国内也招致了反对意见。对外政策部门对郑必坚突然闯进他们的职责领域并提出有影响力的理论感到很不满，一些人对这个战略中的“和平”概念提出异议，其他人则对“崛起”的概念颇有微词。面对各种批评，中国领导人决定改变策略－－从措辞上。
据参与课题的研究人员说，2004年春，胡锦涛和其他领导人决定替换掉“和平崛起”中比较有煽动性的“崛起”一词，改为“和平发展”。很明显，中国领导人并不赞同那些反对“和平”概念的强硬派人士的意见。
不论是郑必坚还是他的战略研究计划似乎都未受到措辞转变的影响。他说，和平崛起也好，和平发展也罢，意思是一样的。郑必坚的研究按中央领导的要求在继续推进，共有近100名研究人员和官员参这项研究。
郑必坚的助手说，今年春季，在胡锦涛主席原定的访美计划之前，曾派郑必坚向美方官员传达了一个特别讯息：中国并没有取代美国的打算。胡锦涛还要求他宣传“和平崛起”战略的相关理论。他的助手说，郑必坚还设法了解了美国人对中国的真实情感和看法。
郑必坚的助手说，郑必坚行前，胡锦涛主席与他进行了一个小时的电话交谈，温家宝总理也在中南海接见了他，并进行了两个小时的长谈。
郑必坚在美国也受到了高规格的接待。在为期11天的行程中，他分别会见了美国国务卿(Secretary of State)赖斯和国家安全顾问哈德利(Stephen Hadley)以及其他高级官员。郑必坚还在美国前总统老布什(George H.W. Bush)位于缅因州肯纳邦克波特的家庭度假别墅与他共进午餐，甚至还会见了参议员希拉里?克林顿(Hillary Clinton)。
郑必坚在这次访问行程中不断谈及和平崛起的话题，这位一向不善于面对媒体的理论家还非常罕见地在华盛顿主持了一次午餐会招待美国记者，讨论大多集中在中国的崛起对当今世界秩序的影响这个话题上。
布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)主席桑顿(John Thornton)在新泽西的家中为郑必坚举办了聚会，郑必坚为回答诸多关于中国和平崛起方面的问题一直呆到很晚，助手们在酒店一直等到午夜过后，非常担心。郑必坚给当晚在座的纽约联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank of New York)行长盖斯纳(Timothy Geithner)留下了非常深刻的印象，盖斯纳主动提出要将他引见给财政部长(Treasury Secretary)斯诺(John Snow)。
郑必坚本人从美国回来后更增添了一种紧迫感。陪同他访美的助手王博永说，郑必坚相信“现在是中美关系的关键时刻”，“机会很多，挑战也很多，如果我们处理不好的话，中美关系可能会倒退。”
挑战之一当然就是海外一直以来对中国的怀疑，他们认为中国能够或者希望能够在世界舞台上实现和平崛起。
针对这种疑问，郑必坚坐在他那间排满书籍的办公室里，字斟句酌地对我们表述了他的回应。
他说，中国自改革开放以来的25年中一直在向前发展，并未对世界构成什么严重干扰。不过他又说，中国的和平崛起将是一个漫长的过程，这个过程将持续到本世纪中叶中国成为发达国家的那一天。
他说：“我们不指望你们完全相信中国真的能够实现和平崛起。但今后几十年，你们可以看，我们是怎么做的。
