风险面前巧应对理财顾问教几招
Shelter From the Storm
Simon Lee isn't a conservative investor. Last year, the 29-year-old Hong Kong resident was so bullish about the local stock market that he threw 80% of his "active" portfolio into stock derivatives, taking on big risks in hopes of outsize returns. In the end, his aggressive strategy produced total returns of about 15%.
This year, Mr. Lee plans to jump into small- and mid-cap industrial stocks that he thinks will benefit from trade liberalization in China.
But Mr. Lee also has a "passive" portfolio that he guards jealously from all temptation to get rich quick. He and his wife squirrel away 15% of their income every month into an insurance contract, a low-risk investment-linked plan that locks up their outlay for 10 years, earning 3% a year.
"The return is very low compared to derivatives," says Mr. Lee, an employee of a public policy think tank. "But my wife and I have four retired parents to look after, and we have a baby coming in June."
Asians have traditionally been relatively big savers compared with their counterparts in the U.S. and Europe. And the same demographic and social changes affecting the rest of the world -- from medical advances helping people live longer, to shrinking families providing less financial support to aging parents -- are making it ever more important for people in Asia to save, and then protect those savings. Even young ones like Mr. Lee are feeling the pressure to guard more of their portfolios from risk.
But experts say habits of investors in Asia hamper their efforts to build and protect their wealth. Many Asian investors, as they seek security, tie up too much of their assets in real estate. The result is a lopsided portfolio that shakes wildly alongside swings in the property market.
And when investing in stocks, people in the region tend to be short-sighted as they preoccupy themselves with buying and selling on the headline of the day, missing out on the wealth created by long-term growth of companies.
Perhaps most worrisome is the tendency of Asia's investors to tie up too much of their financial assets in cash and fixed-income products. Investors in Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan all keep more than 50% of their assets in bank deposits or under their mattresses, compared with around 10% in the U.S. and 30% in Western Europe.
"If your money doesn't earn money, the value of that money keeps falling," says Suraj Mishra, deputy chief executive officer of Prudential Asset Management (Singapore) Ltd. "I keep telling investors that is the biggest risk they face."
One of the simplest ways to combat risk is the tried-and-tested practice of spreading assets across different investment classes. "Portfolio diversification increases returns and reduces risk," says Ban Seng Chew, a certified financial planner in Singapore. "This is the basic investment theory."
Investors can also actively combat risk by understanding how their assets are affected by market forces. Personal Journal set out to examine some of the biggest risks to the portfolios of investors in Asia and what can be done to guard against them.
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"Stocks are risk assets that take years to grow," says Yasuo Kuramoto, vice chairman of Fidelity Investments in Japan. "If you have to lose sleep over every little price change, they aren't for you."
Experts say investors should diversify their portfolios among a wide range of stocks that include financially sound companies, both foreign and domestic. It also helps to own both growth and value stocks, so you have exposure to companies with good future prospects as well as to steady performers available at bargain prices. And don't get caught up in the short-term performance of individual stocks or funds. "It is the overall return of your portfolio that you have to look at," says Prudential's Mr. Mishra.
Stocks that issue dividends help, enhancing returns when the market is up and softening or even erasing losses when the market is down. "Capital appreciation could be very volatile," says King Fuei Lee, Singapore-based portfolio manager of Schroder Asian Equity Yield Fund. "Dividends give you much less volatility and more protection."
Dividend-paying stocks look particularly attractive this year, as a general slowdown in the global economy dims prospects for earnings growth and stock-price increases. And many Asian companies are sitting on relatively fat mounds of cash they can dig into to reward shareholders, a result of their strong earnings over the past few years, combined with the conservative management style that many companies have adopted since their bitter experiences during the regional financial crisis in 1997-98.
Dividends could make up as much as 30% of overall returns from Asian equities this year, estimates Spencer White, chief Asia strategist for Merrill Lynch & Co. Mr. White recommends investors look for high-yielding stocks that also are generating strong earnings. Targeting stocks in currencies likely to strengthen against the U.S. dollar also may give dollar-based investors an extra boost. Among Mr. White's top picks: Taiwan's China Steel Corp., with a whopping 11.6% dividend yield, and Steel Authority of India Ltd., yielding 7.5%. He also likes Indonesia's Bank Mandiri, South Korean steelmaker Posco Co., and Thai Airways International PCL.
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"Because of the low-interest-rate environment, people are feeling very confident," says Leslie Chua, head of Jones Lang LaSalle's Asian real estate intelligence service in Singapore. "The outlook has never been better."
Led by strong markets in countries such as China and India, Asia's residential property markets have rebounded over the past year or so from the long, painful downturns triggered by the Asian financial crisis. According to the latest quarterly property report from Jones Lang LaSalle, the value of luxury residential apartments on Hong Kong Island was up 61% year-to-year, up 59% in Bombay and up 10.4% in Bangkok. Even in cities such as Singapore and Kuala Lumpur, where developers have struggled to drum up demand for their new properties, prices appear to be stabilizing.
"Real estate is a good way to diversify your portfolio," says Alice Chan, a private client manager at Magellan Tresidder Tuohy, a Tokyo financial-planning concern. "If the market falls, you are still getting rental income."
Properties also offer a low correlation to stocks and other asset classes and guard against inflation, a budding worry in many Asian economies.
To decide whether a property is a good investment, consider its "capitalization rate," the net return (gross rental minus taxes, interest, maintenance costs, etc.) divided by the original cost of purchase, advises Jeffrey Chiew, the head of Platinum Co. in Kuala Lumpur and Asia Chairman of the International Association of Registered Financial Consultants. For example, if the property's net return is US$24,000 a year and its original cost is US$300,000, the property is earning 8%.
This formula makes a few markets in the region, such as Hong Kong's luxury condo market, already look overpriced, because rent increases haven't kept pace with price increases. Prices may have gone up more than 60% in the past year, but the rents have climbed just 20%, says Koh Keng Shing, managing director of Landscope Surveyors Ltd., a Hong Kong property agency. This, says Mr. Koh, has pushed down the gross return on these properties to a modest 2% to 3%.
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A quick international tour of competing interest rates explains why foreign-currency investing, once the exclusive domain of professionals and the super rich, has gained fans. At Japan's Sony Bank, for example, one-year U.S.-dollar time deposits currently yield 2.23%, compared with 0.12% for yen-based deposits. Looking more enticing are the Australian dollar deposits, earning 4.53%, and the New Zealand dollar, at 5.74%. At the end of last year, one-third of the deposits at Sony Bank, a popular online financial institution affiliated with the electronics giant, were denominated in currencies other than the yen.
At Citibank in Hong Kong, the Premium Deposit product adds the use of currency options to foreign-currency time deposits for pumped-up yields. For instance, customers who bring a minimum of US$10,000 to invest in the Australian dollar can earn 13% for a one-month deposit. In exchange, they give up some of the potential gains from strong currency exchange moves, as well as the freedom to choose which currency to receive when the deposit matures. (The bank chooses which currency investors get back at the end of the term. If the Australian dollar appreciates against the U.S. during the period, for example, investors get U.S. currency back. If it depreciates, investors get Australian dollars back.)
"Especially in Hong Kong, the Australian dollar is very popular," says Cindy Fu, director of treasury products and marketing at Citibank. "We do have a lot of people who send their kids to Australia to study, and this is one way for them to accumulate the currency."
Also popular among Ms. Fu's clients is renminbi-based deposits, because of the view that the mainland Chinese currency will eventually appreciate more than its Hong Kong counterpart if and when the peg against the U.S. dollar is loosened, Ms. Fu says.
For people who actually need the currencies in which they invest, whether for children's education abroad or for traveling, foreign-currency deposits may be a simple and effective investment tool. But experts warn that people who are simply attracted to the higher yields should proceed with caution. Currencies are a highly volatile asset class that get pushed around by a wide range of economic, political and technical factors. So the risk with all these products is that the currency that investors decide to bet on will take a dive.
For small investors who can't afford to hedge their positions, "the foreign-exchange risk can totally wipe out all interest differentials," says Benedict Koh, director of the applied-finance program at Singapore Management University.
Also often overlooked by investors is the so-called bid-ask spread, the difference between the buying and selling prices of a currency that compensates the financial institution for handling the transactions. But higher returns usually outweigh the cost of the spread for investors who stay in the game for more than three months, Mr. Koh says.
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He also has taken out earthquake insurance. "It's an absolute necessity," says Mr. Hirai, who is 35 years old . "Do you drive without auto insurance?"
A series of natural disasters last year -- from floods in China, the Philippines and Bangladesh to an earthquake in northern Japan and the Asian tsunami -- served as a reminder of the risk we all face from unexpected perils that not only impact on our health but on our financial stability.
Life insurance may have become a staple in Asia, but when it comes to insuring homes and their contents against earthquakes, tsunamis, typhoons or even fire, few are as prepared as Mr. Hirai. Even in Japan, where every child in kindergarten is trained to slide under the desk when the ground shakes, only one out of six households has earthquake coverage, according to the General Insurance Association of Japan.
"If you add everything up, it's kind of expensive," says Daiju Tsuji, a financial planner in Nagoya who specializes in reviewing insurance policies. "So people try to convince themselves they will be OK for another year, maybe two."
Insurance coverage against natural disasters takes different forms from country to country. For example, apartments in Hong Kong and Singapore are usually covered by the building's fire insurance, which generally extends to damages caused by such perils as earthquakes, typhoons and explosions.
Not so the contents of apartments. Here again, most people lack protection. Ann Pearce, head of insurance products at HSBC's personal financial services group, estimates that only about 15% of homeowners in Hong Kong have such coverage, lower than in other major developed markets.
Cost is a concern. To insure contents valued at about US$150,000 in a 140-square-meter apartment in Hong Kong, the annual premium is roughly US$435, more than twice the cost of the regular fire and perils coverage for the same amount, according to HSBC. In Singapore, the annual premium for American International Group Inc.'s basic home interior and contents insurance starts at US$140 for coverage of about US$60,000 worth of fixtures and fittings and about US$18,000 worth of contents.
Insure according to the local risks, then, and look for policies that offer "new for old" items rather than "depreciation" coverage. If your television set suffers water damage from a typhoon, the former will pay for an equivalent new product regardless of the age of the damaged item, while the latter will pay out based on the current value of the set. And don't forget to buy individual coverage if you want to insure valuables such as antique furniture, artworks and jewelry. Normal contents insurance usually has strict limits on individual items.
风险面前巧应对理财顾问教几招
毋庸置疑，降低风险保护投资组合至关重要。不过，还有一些提高投资收益率的明智方法。
29岁的香港市民Simon Lee并不是一个保守型投资者。他十分看好香港股市，所以去年把“积极型”投资组合中80%的资金都投在了股票衍生品上，在有望获得丰厚回报的同时也承担了巨大的风险。结果，这种激进的投资策略给他带来了约15%的回报率。
今年，Lee打算买入中小型制造股，原因是他认为这两类股票能够从中国大陆贸易自由化的进程中受益。
不过，Lee还有一个不为任何暴富诱惑所动的“被动型”投资组合。他和他的妻子每个月拿出15%的收入上了一份分红保险，这份保险的缴费期限为10年，每年的回报率为3%。
在一家公共政策智囊机构就职的Lee表示，“保险合同的回报率确实比衍生品差得很远，但是我和我的妻子需要照顾4位已经退休的父母，而且我们到6月时还会有一个小宝宝。”
亚洲人往往比美国人和欧洲人更愿意存钱。亚洲和全球其他地区都在经历著相同的人口结构及社会的变迁：从帮助人们延长生命的医学进步到家庭成员数量减少导致老年人获得的赡养费减少。在这种形势之下，存钱并保护好这些储蓄对于亚洲人来说从未像今天这样重要。即便是Lee这样的年轻人都感受到了防范风险、增强投资组合安全性的压力。
但专家们表示，亚洲人的投资习惯往往不利于他们保护并巩固他们的财富。许多亚洲投资者为了寻求保障往往把过多的资金都投到了房地产上，其结果是他们的投资组合很容易随著房地产市场的波动而急剧变化。
另外，亚洲人在投资股市时往往是以短线操作为主，即根据当天的重大消息来买卖，但容易忽视公司长期的发展前景而错过了致富的良机。
亚洲投资者最令人担心的投资倾向恐怕是握有过多的现金和固定收益产品。在香港、新加坡和日本投资者的各种资产中，银行存款或者现金的比例超过50%，而这个比例在美国和欧洲分别只有10%和30%。
保诚资产管理有限公司(Prudential Asset Management Ltd.)驻新加坡的副首席执行长Suraj Mishra表示，“如果钱不能生钱的话，那么财富的价值就会减损。我反复地对投资者们说这是他们眼前的最大风险。”
抵御这种风险的一个简单方法就是，把鸡蛋放在多个篮子里这个经过实践检验的做法。驻新加坡的注册金融理财师Ban Seng Chew表示，投资多样化既可以增加回报又可以降低风险。
投资者如能了解他们的资产如何受市场因素的影响也可以大幅降低他们的风险。《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal)的“Personal Journal”专栏将分析一下投资组合面临的一些重大风险，并针对如何防范风险给出一些建议。
股票
过去10年来，亚洲股市的大起大落让人看得眼花缭乱，反映出亚洲经济和政治形势充满活力、有时甚至是令人揪心的变化。以泰铢计算的泰国股市市值在1996-1998年的2年间竟然缩水了80%以上。在持续至二十一世纪初长达10年之久的熊市行情中，日本股市也经历了同样程度的下跌。另一方面，印尼股市去年却飙升了45%，位居全球股市涨幅前列。
富达投资(Fidelity Investments)驻日本的副董事长Yasuo Kuramoto表示，股票是一种风险较高的投资品种，需要坚持长线投资的理念。如果价格上的一点风吹草动就能让你无法安然入睡，那么你就不适合炒股。
专家们表示，投资者应该把投资分散化，广泛地持有各种财务状况稳健的国内外企业的股票。投资者还应在持有那些具有良好发展前景的成长型股票的同时也持有股价低廉但表现稳定的价值型股票。不要沉迷于某只股票或者基金的短线走势。Mishra表示，投资者看重的应该是投资组合的整体回报率。
还应持有派息的股票，当股市上涨或走势疲软时派息的股票能够提升投资回报率，当股市下跌时派息的股票则可以起到减少损失的作用。Schroder Asian Equity Yield Fund驻新加坡的投资组合经理King Fuei Lee表示，资本升值一说有时候非常靠不住，但派息就可靠多了，可以起到保护投资的作用。
派息股票今年尤为炙手可热，原因是全球经济整体的放缓令收益增长及股价升值前景黯淡。由于过去几年来业绩强劲增长，以及在经历了1997-98年金融危机的痛苦教训之后许多亚洲企业普遍采取了稳健的管理风格，如今它们拥有大量的现金，可用于为股东提供回报。
美林(Merrill Lynch & Co)的亚洲首席策略师白怀硕(Spencer White)估计说，今年亚洲股市30%的总回报率可能都来自派息。白怀硕建议持有那些盈利强劲同时派息率较高的股票。投资那些有可能从美元下跌中受益的股票或许会给那些用美元进行投资的投资者带来额外的回报。白怀硕推荐的股票有：派息率为11.6%的台湾股票中国钢铁(China Steel Corp.)，以及派息率为7.5%的Steel Authority of India Ltd.。此外，他还推荐了印度尼西亚的Bank Mandiri、浦项综合制铁公司(Posco Co.)以及泰国国际航空公司(Thai Airways International PLC)。
房地产
亚太区利率极低，投资者很容易拆借资本金。以香港和新加坡为例，初始的短期抵押利率为零非常普遍。
仲量联行(Jones Lang Lasalle)旗下驻新加坡的亚洲房地产信息服务机构主管Leslie Chua说，现在是低利率环境，人们都很自信。前景之光明前所未有。
在中国和印度等国市场强势发展的引领之下，亚洲住宅市场在这一年前后大幅反弹，摆脱了亚洲金融危机以来长期痛苦不堪的跌势。据仲量联行最新的季度地产市场报告，港岛豪华公寓的价值一年中猛激了61%，孟买房产市场价格增长了59%，曼谷增长了10.4%。即使在新加坡和吉隆坡等开发商竭力刺激市场需求的城市，地产价格也有稳定迹象。
东京金融规划机构Magellan Tresidder Tuohy的私人客户经理Alice Chan说，房地产是分散投资组合的好办法。如果市场走软，投资者仍能得到租金收入。
地产市场与股市和其他资产类别的相关性不高，还能抗衡通货膨胀风险，而后者正在日益成为亚洲各经济体的隐忧。
衡量一项地产是不是好的投资机会，应该考虑“资本化率”，也就是净收益（毛租金收入减去税收、利息和维护成本等）除以最初的购买成本。这是Platinum Co.驻吉隆坡业务主管兼国际认证财务顾问师协会(International Association of Registered Financial Consultants)亚洲分会主席Jeffrey Chiew的忠告。比如说，某项地产年净收益24,000美元，最初购买价300,000美元，则收益率为8%。
用这个公式衡量，香港豪华公寓等该地区部分市场已经定价过高，因为租金增幅跟不上价格增幅。香港地产中介机构Landscope Surveyors Ltd.董事总经理Koh Keng Shing说，去年价格增幅超过60%，但租金增幅只有20%，这些地产的投资回报只有2%-3%，表现平平。
外汇
低利率对购房的人来说是件好事，但对那些通过赚取利息、增加收益或投资组合回报的人来说恰好相反。一些投资者对本地银行利息或者货币市场基金回报感到不满，正在纷纷开立外汇存款帐户。外币存款和本币定期存款类似，但可以根据你选择的外汇币种赚取利息，不过要承受汇率波动的影响。
迅速考察一下各国的利率水平，就能知道外汇投资──以往由专业机构和超级富豪占据的投资领地──为什么如此诱人了。以日本大型电子消费品生产商索尼公司的网络金融附属机构索尼银行(Sony Bank)为例，该行1年期美元定期存款利率目前是2.23%，而同期日圆存款的利率只有0.12%。更诱人的是利率为4.53%的澳元存款和利率高达5.74%的新西兰元存款。截至去年年底，索尼银行三分之一的存款都是外币，而不是日圆存款。
而花旗银行(Citibank)香港分行推出的优惠存款(Premium Deposit)产品还在外汇定期存款中加入了币种选择权。比如说，客户以最低1万美元的额度投资澳元，1个月定期存款的利率是13%。但为了抵御外汇市场的大幅震荡，客户放弃了部分潜在收益，以及存款到期日选择提取币种的自由作为交换。届时由银行替投资者决定币种。如果在此期间澳元兑美元升值，投资者就会得到美元；如果澳元贬值，就得到澳元。
花旗银行国债产品和营销部门的主管Cindy Fu说，澳元在香港特别受欢迎。很多港人把孩子送到澳大利亚留学，他们可以通过这种方式积累澳元。
另一种大受欢迎的币种是人民币，因为人们普遍认为，如果人民币与美元挂钩的汇率制度有所放松，就会导致人民币兑美元升幅高出港元兑美元升幅。
对那些的确需要所投资外汇币种的人来说，不管是为了孩子留学还是为了出国旅行，外币存款都是一种方便有效的投资工具。但专家告诫那些单单被高利率吸引的人保持谨慎。货币是一种价值震荡很大的资产品种，会受到经济、政治和技术等诸多因素的影响。因此，所有这些外汇投资产品都有一大风险，就是你选中的货币可能会大幅下跌。
新加坡管理大学(Singapore Management University)应用金融项目的主管Benedict Koh说，对那些无力对冲风险的小投资者来说，外汇风险带来的损失也许会将利息收益抵消得一干二净。
常常被人们忽视的还有所谓的买卖价差，也就是买卖外汇时交给相应金融机构的交易佣金。不过，Koh说，只要持币超过3个月，高额回报往往能够抵消交易成本。
住房保险
作为救急食品零售网站的负责人，Hiroya Hirai对灾害准备还是略知一二。他看中了东京附近镰仓市的某处小山，准备在这里盖房子。但在动工之前，他先设计好房子能抗海啸，还请了一位地质学家来确认地基足够稳固。这里的水箱总是装得满满的，不用说，救急食品更是足够数月之需。
他还拿出一份地震保单，“这绝对有必要，”他说，“你开车有没有买汽车保险？”
去年发生了一系列天灾，中国、菲律宾和孟加拉国洪水滔天，日本北部发生地震，年底更是席卷亚洲南部的海啸。这些都提醒我们，大家都面对诸多意外灾害的风险，不但生命和健康笼罩危险，财务状况也不例外。
人寿保险在亚洲可能已经大行其道，但要说到为房屋以及屋内的财产投保，以免遭受地震、海啸、台风或者火灾损失，那么几乎没人能做到Hirai那样面面俱到的准备。即使在日本，刚上幼儿园的孩子都知道地面摇晃起来时要赶紧钻到桌子下面，但普通险行业协会(General Insurance Association)数据显示，只有六分之一的家庭购买了地震保险。
Nagoya财务规划师Daiju Tsuji专门负责审核保单。他说，把各种保险加在一起总额不小。所以人们总是尽量说服自己明年不会有事，也许后年也平安无事。
各国自然灾害保险的承保范围都有所不同。比如说，香港和新加坡的公寓通常会投保火灾险，而这个险种会包括地震、台风和爆炸导致楼宇火灾造成的损失。
但公寓内的财产就不是这样了。再说一遍，大多数人都没有做好充分的保护。汇丰(HSBC)个人金融服务集团保险产品部门主管Ann Pearce估算，香港大概只有15%的业主投保了上述保险，比其他发达国家和地区的比例都低。
成本也是考虑因素之一。根据汇丰的数据，以香港为例，面积为140平方米的一处公寓为室内价值15万美元的财物投保，每年保费约为435美元，比同样15万美元保险金额的火灾和自然灾害险保费高出一倍还多。而在新加坡，美国国际集团(American International Group Inc.)最基本的房屋内装修和室内财产保险的起保金额是：价值约6万美元的固定装置和价值约18,000美元的财物，保费起缴点是140美元。
读者应该根据本地的风险情况投保，去买那种内含“以旧换新”条款，而不是“折旧”偿付条款的保单。如果电视机因遇台风遭水淹，如果是前一种保单，保险公司会赔偿一台相应的全新电视机，而后一种只能根据已使用年限折旧后计算现值再偿付。此外，如果想为古董家具、艺术品和珠宝等高价财产投保，一定要为他们每一件单独买一份保险。普通的财产保险对独立某件财物往往都有严格的限制。
