China replaces US as Japan's biggest commerce partner with $213bn trade
China surpassed the US to become Japan's biggest trading partner for the first time last year, underlining its importance to Japan's faltering recovery.
Total trade with China, including Hong Kong, reached Y22,200bn ($213bn) against Y20,479bn ($197bn) for the US, according to preliminary figures released yesterday by the finance ministry. Imports and exports were fairly evenly matched, producing a trade surplus in Japan's favour of Y1,455bn, compared with a much bigger surplus of Y6,962bn with the US.
Mikihiro Matsuoka, economist at Deutsche Bank, said the US continued to play a bigger role than the raw figures suggested. He estimated a quarter to a third of Japan's exports to China ended up in the US.
Japanese companies have stepped up their direct investment in China in the past few years. A significant proportion of Japanese exports to China, including components, are fabricated into finished products before being shipped to third countries.
China now accounts for 20.1 per cent of total Japanese trade, up from 19.2 per cent in 2003. The US last year accounted for 18.6 per cent of trade against 20.5 per cent in 2003.
Japan's global trade surplus grew 17.9 per cent in 2004 to Y12,011bn, its third year of increase and the highest level since 1999, when it hit Y12,280bn. The rise reflected the strong export performance on which Japan's recovery has been built, coupled with modest demand for imports.
In the three months to December, however, the trade surplus fell 9 per cent against the same period in the previous year. The fall suggests exports may have contributed less to growth during that period, partly because of the effect of rising oil prices.
Yesterday, the finance ministry released a report on regional economies showing that growth in some areas of Japan had slowed along with exports.
Mr Matsuoka said exports to China had begun to slow in spite of the Chinese economy's continued fast growth 9.5 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter. Recent export growth to China of 20 per cent year-on-year had halved to about 9 per cent, he said. That reflected a slowdown in Chinese demand for industrial equipment, such as turbines and construction-related machines, as well as for Japanese cars, he said.
Overall, Mr Matsuoka said, net exports had not contributed to the growth of Japan's gross domestic product in the three months to December, after being the driver for several quarters in a row.
The government is hoping exports will again become an engine of growth, assuming that global demand picks up and the effects of high oil and commodity prices begin to recede. In 2004, Japan's overall trade surplus with the rest of Asia surged by 32.9 per cent to Y7,430bn, while that with Europe rose by 14.5 per cent to Y3,270bn
中国超过美国成为日本最大贸易伙伴
中国去年第一次超过美国，成为日本的最大贸易伙伴，体现中国对正在艰难复苏的日本经济的重要性。
日本财务省昨天公布的初步数据显示，日本的对华贸易总额(包括香港)达22.2万亿日元(合2130亿美元)，而对美贸易总额为20.479万亿日元(合1970亿美元)。对华进出口贸易相对而言基本平衡，日本的对华贸易顺差达1.455万亿日元，而对美顺差则达6.962万亿日元。
德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)经济学家松冈千广(Mikihiro Matsuoka)说，美国所扮演的角色仍然比原始数据所显示的要大。他估计，日本对华出口产品中有四分之一到三分之一最终出口到了美国。
过去几年，日本企业加大了在华直接投资。包括零部件在内，日本对华出口产品中相当大一部分在中国被组装为成品，然后输往第三国。
中国在日本外贸中所占的比例从2003年的19.2%上升到了20.1%。去年美国在日本外贸中的比例为18.6%，而2003年为20.5%。
2004年日本全球贸易顺差增长17.9%，达12.011万亿日元，为1999年以来的第3个增长年份和顺差最大的一年。1999年顺差达12.280万亿日元。这反映日本出口表现强劲，同时进口需求适度。日本经济复苏建立在强劲的出口基础上。
但在截至2004年12月的3个月里，贸易顺差同比下降了9%。这一降幅表明，出口在这段时期对经济增长的贡献减少，这部分是受石油价格上涨的影响。
松冈先生表示，尽管中国经济持续快速增长，但日本对华出口已开始减缓。中国第四季度经济同比增长9.5%。他说，日本近期对中国20%的同比出口增幅已减少了一半，至9%左右，反映中国对汽轮机、建筑机械等工业设备以及日本小汽车的需求减缓。
