China chases a global presence in oil market
The mooted takeover bid by China National Offshore Oil Corp, the country's third-largest oil and gas group, for Unocal shows little is off limits for ambitious Chinese companies in their search for secure resources.
But as with other Chinese acquisitions overseas, the possible US$13bn deal raises questions about the prices mainland companies are willing to pay and their ability to manage the transaction and, later, the assets themselves.
State-owned CNOOC, which has a listed arm in Hong Kong and New York, has asked bankers to study a takeover of Unocal, the ninth-largest oil company in the US, to be followed by the immediate sale of its US assets.
Although progress is at a preliminary stage, foreign energy executives, who judge CNOOC to be the best of China's state energy groups, said yesterday the company should not be underestimated.
CNOOC had been looking at Unocal's assets in Asia, in countries such as Thailand, Indonesia andMyanmar for some time, these executives said, and had the balance sheet to handle such a large transaction.
But China's strategic search for overseas resources and its own rising short-term demand is driving up prices for oil and other resources, and providing an incentive for the present owners to hang on to their assets.
“Chinese companies are finding overseas acquisitions difficult because of the high oil prices, so not a lot of assets are for sale . . . as it's more practical to hold on to them,” said a Beijing-based energy consultant.
David Hurd, the head of energy research at Deutsche Bank in Hong Kong, said the Unocal acquisition appeared to be a lot more expensive than CNOOC's previous purchases.
By his calculations, the US group has an enterprise value per barrel of the equivalent (EV/BOE) of US$7.71.
CNOOC paid $1.98 in EV/BOE for its stake in Australia's Northwest Shelf gas project, and$0.98 in EV/BOE for raising its stake in Indonesia's Tangguh LNG project last month.
Lawrence Lau, the oil and gas analyst at the Bank of China (HK), agreed that, based on initial reports, the price tag could be too big for the company.
It would be best, he said, if CNOOC sold the non-Asian assets back-to-back, as it is believed to be planning to do, to ease the financing pressures.
CNOOC's overseas-listed vehicle, along with its parent company, has a growing string of LNG terminals in the mainland and is keen to secure the long-term supply of gas. Most of Unocal's production assets in Asia are gas.
“But the realisation value of gas is low, especially in today's high oil price environment,” Mr Lau said.
“And given that there may be other bidders out there, Unocal may prove to be a very expensive purchase by CNOOC.”
CNOOC's possible purchase of Unocal also represents a new approach for Chinese oil companies in that it would not just be acquiring single oilfields but an extensive regional network.
This trend will accelerate if oil prices decline because companies abroad will become less valuable and some smaller operations may struggle for profitability, said the Beijing-based analyst.
Each new Chinese deal overseas also ratchets up the global political dimensions of such purchases.
With China reportedly preparing to sign a framework agreement for investment in Canadian resources this month, including the oil sands project in Alberta, Chinese investments have roused debate in Ottawa about the sale of strategic assets.
The purchase of Unocal would be the first by the Chinese of a large, listed US resources company, and might attract the attention of regulators and politicians.
中国能源战略全球化
中国海洋石油总公司(CNOOC)有意收购优尼科(Unocal)公司，此举表明，雄心勃勃的中国公司对可靠资源的寻求几乎没有止境。中海油是中国第三大石油天然气集团。
但和其它中国公司在海外的收购一样，这宗130亿美元的潜在交易令人对中国大陆公司愿出的价格产生疑问，也令人怀疑这些公司是否有能力管理这宗交易，并随后自行管理这些资产。
中海油是国有企业，有一家子公司在香港和纽约上市。它已要求银行家对收购优尼科及收购后立即出售其美国资产的方案进行研究。优尼科是美国第九大石油公司。
虽然收购尚处在初级阶段，但一些外国能源企业的高级经理们昨天表示，不要低估中海油。他们认为，中海油是中国最好的国有能源公司。
这些经理们表示，中海油关注优尼科在泰国、印尼和缅甸等亚洲国家的资产已有一段时间，而且有足够的财力来进行此类大型交易。
但中国对海外资源的战略搜寻，及其自身不断上升的短期需求，正推动石油和其它资源的价格上涨，并为这些资产目前的拥有者提供了紧握资产的动机。
“中国公司发现很难进行海外收购，原因在于油价高涨，没有很多资产供出售……因为持有这些资产更明智，”驻北京的一位能源咨询顾问表示。
德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)驻香港的能源研究主管戴维?赫德(David Hurd)表示，收购优尼科似乎比中海油以前的收购都要贵许多。
据他计算，这家美国集团每桶油当量的企业价值(EV/BOE)为7.71美元。
中海油为其在澳大利亚西北大陆架天然气项目的股份支付了1.98美元的每桶油当量企业价值，上月为增加在印尼东固(Tangguh)液化天然气项目的股份支付了0.98美元的每桶油当量企业价值。
中银香港(Bank of China(HK))石油及天然气分析师Lawrence Lau对此表示同意。他说，基于最初的报告，这个价码对于中海油来说可能过高。
他说，据悉中海油计划背对背出售优尼科的非亚洲资产，以缓解融资压力，若它果真这么做，那就最好了。
中海油海外上市公司及其母公司已在中国大陆建立了一连串液化天然气终端。中海油渴望确保天然气的长期供应。而优尼科在亚洲的大部分生产设施都生产天然气。
“但天然气的实现价值很低，尤其在如今石油价格高企的环境下，”刘先生说。
“同时考虑到也许会有其它竞购者，因此优尼科可能会是一宗对中海油非常昂贵的收购。”
中石油对优尼科的潜在收购也代表了中国石油企业的新收购手段：收购广泛的区域性网络，而不是收购单个油田。
这位驻北京的分析师说，如果油价下跌，这一收购趋势将会加快，因为海外公司的价值将下降，同时一些较小的公司实现赢利可能有困难。
此外，中国公司每进行一宗新的海外交易，都会提高此类收购的政治敏感度。
据报道，中国准备在本月就投资加拿大的资源签署一份框架协议，其中包括对阿尔伯塔油砂项目的投资。在加拿大政府内部，中国这些投资已引起有关出售战略性资产的争论。
收购优尼科将是中国人首次买入一家大型美国自然资源上市公司，这可能会引起监管机构和政界人士的关注。
