China Opens Up Insurance Sector To Foreign Firms
hina is allowing foreign insurers to operate anywhere in the country, opening a fast-growing sector to wider international competition.
Until now, foreign insurers such as American International Group Inc., based in New York, and Canada's Manulife Financial Corp. have been restricted to operating in a handful of cities. Such geographic restrictions were dropped yesterday as part of the pledges China made when it joined the World Trade Organization on Dec. 11, 2001. The China Insurance Regulatory Commission announced the changes in a notice posted on its Web site.
In the same notice, the commission said foreign companies could offer health and group insurance and also set up insurance businesses related to pensions and corporate annuities. The commission said foreign insurance brokers can now own a maximum of 51% of joint ventures, up from 50% previously.
IN THE MARKET
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The changes will allow more competition in an expanding industry fueled by a personal savings pool of $1.3 trillion and the dismantling of a cradle-to-grave socialist welfare system. Economic overhauls are forcing tens of millions of urban workers to make provision for their own health care and retirement needs for the first time. Investment-linked insurance products are increasingly popular, offering potentially better returns than the meager deposit rates at banks where the bulk of China's individual savings reside.
Foreign insurance companies are eager to expand beyond their bases in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, where they have proved to be highly competitive. They are likely initially to seek to replicate that success in richer coastal provinces before reaching into the poorer interior.
But it could take the foreign companies years before they challenge the dominance of domestic insurers such as China Life Insurance Co. and Ping An Insurance (Group) Co. These two insurers have huge sales forces, long-established branches and popular products. Together they control more than 75% of the Chinese life-insurance market. Chinese insurance executives say they aren't worried about the foreign competition in the short term, believing the market's growth is fast enough to accommodate all players. Ping An's net profit in the first half of the year, for example, grew 26% from a year earlier to $181.2 million.
In preparation for the expected foreign onslaught, Chinese insurers have been raising funds with stock-market listings. The listings have forced better disclosure on the part of the companies. However, further listings on Chinese exchanges were put on hold in August when the China Securities Regulatory Commission put a blanket suspension on initial public offerings. The commission halted listings while it worked to revise rules governing the pricing of issues. (See related article.)
On Friday, two large insurers said they are putting off their IPOs. In the meantime, the two -- New China Life Insurance Co . and China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co. -- are considering issuing subordinated bonds, senior officials at both insurers told Dow Jones Newswires. The insurance commission, known as CIRC, gave local insurers this new financing channel in early October, when it began allowing them to issue subordinated debt to boost capital. In November, Taikang Life Insurance Co. became China's first insurer to use this option, selling $157 million in six-year subordinated debt.
Beijing-based New China Life recently sought approval from the CIRC to raise about $156 million through a subordinated debt issue, said a company official. The issue could be completed by the end of this year or early next year, the official said. However, he didn't provide details "because we haven't confirmed the maturity with the CIRC and the rate with the central bank yet."
Issuing subordinated debt "doesn't mean we have given up on the IPO," said another official at New China Life. "It is not an easy or suitable time to raise funds from the domestic stock market at present. When the overall environment gets better, we will do it," he said, adding that late 2005 was a possibility. As late as September, New China Life Vice President Li Shuyi had said a listing could come by the end of 2004.
Also on Friday, a senior official at China Pacific said the insurer has decided to postpone its IPO, citing China's current macroeconomic environment. "We've learned about New China's situation and we're also studying the possibility of issuing subordinated bonds before an IPO," the China Pacific official said. Shanghai-based China Pacific had planned to issue yuan-denominated Class A shares on the Shanghai Stock Exchange as early as November, according to a company document seen by Dow Jones Newswires earlier this year. At the time, China Pacific said it was also considering a listing in Hong Kong
中国保险业对外资全面开放
2004年12月11日起，外资保险机构在中国开设分支机构将不受地域和数量的限制，从此，中国快速增长的国内保险业开始对外资全面开放。
在此之前，美国国际集团(American International Group Inc., AIG)和加拿大宏利金融有限公司(Manulife Financial Corp., 简称：宏利金融)只能在中国少数几个城市开展业务。根据中国在2001年12月11日加入世界贸易组织(WTO)时签订的协议，这种地域上的限制从今年12月11日起取消。中国保险监督管理委员会(China Insurance Regulatory Commission, 简称：中国保监会)在其网站上刊登的公告中提到了上述政策调整。
中国保监会在公告中还表示，外资寿险公司可以提供健康险、团体险以及养老金/年金险业务；此外，外资在合资保险经纪公司中的持股上限可从先前的50%提高至51%。
中国曾实行的“从摇篮到坟墓”式社会主义福利保障体系的土崩瓦解以及高达1.3万亿美元的个人储蓄使中国保险业得到了蓬勃发展，而上述变化将为这个行业引入更多的竞争。经济体制的转变迫使数以千万计的城市就业人员第一次为自己的保健及退休需求开始未雨绸缪。由于提供的潜在收益率能够远高于低得可伶的银行存款利率，投资型保险产品正日渐受到欢迎。目前，中国居民把大部分资金都存放在银行之中。
外资保险公司原先只能在北京、上海等大城市开设分支机构，但他们非常渴望拓展其他地区的市场。在北京、上海等大城市，这些外资企业具有非常强的竞争力。他们有可能先进军富裕的沿海省份，之后再向欠发达的内陆地区拓展。
但这些外国保险公司恐怕要到数年之后才能向中国人寿保险股份有限公司(China Life Insurance Co., Ltd.)、中国平安保险（集团）股份有限公司(Ping An Insurance Group Co.)等占据统治地位的中国保险公司发起挑战。这两家公司控制著中国寿险市场75%以上的份额，它们拥有庞大的销售队伍和成立多年的分支机构，产品也深受市场欢迎。中国保险业的人士表示，短期内他们对外资的涌入并不感到担心，因为中国保险市场的迅速增长为所有参与者都提供了大展身手的空间。以平安保险为例，该公司今年上半年的净利润比上年同期增长了26%，达到1.812亿美元。
但外资企业迟早会发起强大的挑战，中国保险企业也在积极准备应对这一局面，措施之一是在股票市场上融资。上市迫使这些企业提高了信息披露的透明度。但中国证券监督管理委员会(China Securities Regulatory Commission)今年8月起决定暂停新股发行，这使保险公司的上市之路暂时停顿。目前证监会正在修订新股发行定价办法。
上周五，两大国内保险商──新华人寿保险公司(New China Life Insurance Co.)和中国太平洋保险公司(China Pacific Insurance(Group) Co.)已经决定将首次公开募股(IPO)的时间推后。两家公司的管理人士对道琼斯通讯社(Dow Jones Newswires)透露说，他们正在考虑发行次级债券的可行性。今年10月初，中国保监会允许国内的保险公司通过这种新的融资渠道来充实资本。11月时，泰康人寿保险股份有限公司(Taikang Life Insurance Co.,, 简称：泰康人寿)发行了价值1.57亿美元的6年期次级债券，成为中国第一家发行此种债券的保险公司。
新华人寿的管理人士表示，该公司发行约1.56亿美元次级债券的申请近期已得到中国保监会的批准。该管理人士表示，新华人寿可能会在今年年底之前或者明年年初完成发行工作。但他并未提供相关细节，称原因是“我们尚未和中国保监会及中国央行敲定次级债券的存续期和票面利率等问题。”
新华人寿的另一位管理人士表示，“发行次级债券并不意味著我们放弃了发行股票。只不过目前国内股票市场的状况不适合我们发行股票。如果股市行情转好，我们还是会上市的。”他表示，新华人寿有可能会在2005年年底发行股票。今年9月时新华人寿副总经理李树义还曾表示，公司准备于今年年底上市。
同样是在上周五，太平洋保险公司的一位高级管理人士表示，该公司决定推迟IPO的时间表，称原因是中国目前的宏观经济状况不利于IPO。这位人士称，“我们了解到新华人寿已经获准发行次级债券，我们也在考虑在IPO之前先发行次级债券的可能性。”据今年早些时候道琼斯通讯社了解到的该公司一份内部文件的内容，太平洋保险公司计划最早于今年11月份就在上海证交所发行A股。此外，该公司还在考虑在香港发行股票。
(back)US Markets Show Muted Reaction As Fed Hikes Rates Again
The Federal Reserve can be content with one thing as the year draws to a close: its communications strategy is working.
Financial markets were so primed for another federal funds rate hike on Tuesday that they barely reacted when it did. The fact that there were no surprises in the monetary policy outlook in the Federal Open Market Committee's statement also insulated stocks, bonds and the dollar from any sudden movements. Treasurys moved modestly higher as the market welcomed the fact that the Fed was staying the course on rates and hadn't grown more concerned about inflation. The dollar moved marginally weaker against the euro and modestly stronger against the yen, while mortgage-backed securities widened slightly.
"There's nothing new in the statement and there's nothing here for the bond market," said William Strazzullo, market strategist at State Street in Boston. "We have to assume the Fed will keep raising rates in a measured manner and that's good news for the yield curve flatteners."
At 2:50 p.m., Treasurys had finally crossed over into positive territory after spending the most of the session in the red.
The long bond was the star performer with its price rising 14/32 on the day to 108 26/32 for a yield of 4.78% versus 4.82% before the Fed announcement. The 10-year note was close behind with its 5/32 gain on the day and a yield of 4.13%. The yield was bid at 4.17% before the rate increase.
The two-year note, meanwhile, was flat on the day at 99 26/32 to yield 2.97%. The yield was 2.99% before the Fed announcement.
In late U.S. trading, the euro was at $1.3305, marginally up from $1.3287 before the Fed decision but steady from $1.3307 late Monday. The dollar was also at Y105.44, up from Y104.79 before the Fed announcement and from Y105.51 late Monday.
After pushing through a December rate hike for the first time in exactly 16 years, the Fed did unveil a change to its information strategy, deciding to speed the release of minutes of FOMC meetings, cutting the lag time to three weeks from six to eight weeks. The first set of expedited minutes will be released Jan. 4, the committee said.
The government bond market clearly welcomed the fact that the Fed opted to stick to its outlook, even though many analysts expect the central bank to change its perspective on inflation at some point.
"It's very difficult to get excited about those word changes" in the statement, said Thomas Girard, senior portfolio manager at Weiss, Peck & Greer in New York. "The market is feeling a little bit better about there being no reference to a deterioration in inflation," he said, noting the outperformance of longer-dated Treasurys, which are more sensitive to changes in inflation expectations.
The FOMC chose to stick almost verbatim to the language used at its policy meeting on Nov. 10, noting that "inflation and longer-term inflation expectations remain well contained."
One tweak it made was in its assessment of the employment picture, where it said "labor market conditions continue to improve gradually." In November, it said "labor market conditions have improved."
That nuanced shift was seen as a nod to the fact that the November nonfarm payrolls report was much weaker than expected, underscoring a stop-again start-again recovery in the labor market that's persisted all year.
The Fed's benchmark rate now stands 25 basis points higher than the euro zone's for the first time since March 2001. Some see that differential as a significant psychological milestone, which could support the dollar as it becomes more expensive for investors to finance short positions in the dollar versus the euro.
However, the differential is still small enough, and the prospects for further euro appreciation large enough that it will probably have little bearing on investors' preferences, says Monica Fan , director of global currency strategy at RBC Capital Markets in London.
"Investors widely believe they will more than make up the increased cost of carry through appreciation on the euro versus the dollar, so relative benchmark rates won't be too big of a factor," said Fan.
The bump up in U.S. rates may have even less of a distinction for the dollar versus many other currencies that have attracted investors on the basis of relative interest rates. Yield-hungry investors are likely to still be more enamored of so-called "high yield" currencies such as the pound and Australian dollar.
In emerging markets meanwhile, bond prices were a bit stronger, prompting some mild covering of bearish positions, according to a trader. Emerging market stocks barely moved.
尽管贸易逆差扩大，美元基本持平
纽约汇市周二尾盘，美元兑欧元及其他多数主要货币基本持平，当日公布的美国贸易数据、联邦储备委员会(Fed)例会作出的加息决定以及明年进一步加息的暗示均未对市场产生明显影响。
然而，尽管美元成交不够活跃，但其兑日圆汇率仍有所上升，这部分是因为市场预期日本政府将在周三早间公布疲软的季度短观调查报告。此外，一些颇为重要的技术支撑位的失守也是促成今日日圆下挫的另一因素。
纽约汇市尾盘，欧元兑1.3306美元，略低于周一尾盘的1.3307美元；美元兑105.55日圆，高于周一尾盘的104.79日圆；美元兑1.1536瑞士法郎，略低于周一尾盘的1.1537瑞士法郎；此外，英镑从1.9253美元上涨至1.9287美元。
美元兑日圆的上涨，以及兑其他主要货币早盘失地的收复均发生在纽约汇市前市，尽管期间有报导称美国10月份贸易逆差再创新高。
在该消息未能给市场以再次打击美元的足够动力后，市场作出了出人意料的反应。由于不见美元走软，一些交易员反而决定从所持的美元空头头寸中获利了结。
然而，从更广泛的意义上来说，贸易逆差的扩大确实印证了近几个月来推动美元持续走低的一种担忧心理，即美国进口额远远高于出口额的状况可能将导致该国投资吸引力下降，从而使其无法获得弥补贸易缺口的资金。
但从短期来看，还有其他一些因素在对外汇市场产生作用。随著年关将近，许多交易员可能会更加关注于所持投资组合中的短期品种以及利润，而不会再对美元的长期走软趋势耿耿于怀。
美国10月份贸易逆差扩大至历史新高，原因是油价在此期间出现了14年来的最剧烈上涨，而且国内对进口消费品的需求也大幅提高。美国10月份贸易逆差为554.6亿美元，较9月份经过向下修正的逆差额509.3亿美元又有所增长。经济学家此前对10月份贸易逆差的预期值为536亿美元。
市场之所以对以上贸易数据反映平淡，其中也牵涉到了这样一个事实，即10月份贸易逆差大幅扩大与油价的飙升紧密相关。
贸易数据只是本周三大重要经济事件中的第一项，其他两项则是分别定于周三和周四公布的财政部10月份国际资本系统流向数据和第三季度经常项目余额。综合来看，这些报告将描绘出能够影响美元汇率的美国贸易和资本流动不平衡状况。
周二晚些时候，Fed确如人们所预料的那样宣布上调基准利率25个基点至2.25%，并暗示明年将维持这种加息势头。此外，他们还出人意料地宣布将在3周之后公布会议纪要，而非像往常那样在6至8周后公布。
Fed的基准利率现已比欧元区利率高出了25个基点，这在2001年3月以来尚属首次。一些人士视二者利差为影响市场心理的重要决定因素，从而提振美元。
然而，目前的这一利差依然狭小，因而欧元升值的前景依然广阔，因为这种程度的利差可能很难对投资者的偏向产生影响，RBC Capital Markets驻伦敦的全球外汇策略部经理Monica Fan表示。
定于周三公布的日本短观调查结果预计将为美元兑日圆汇率走势定下基调。日本央行将在美东时间1850，即东京时间周三上午8:50发布短观调查报告。
接受调查的经济学家预计本次调查结果将从9月份时的26降至22。
