China's Hot Auto Sales Cool As Middle-Class Clients Stall
As China's highflying automobile sector plunges back to earth, the car companies that appear to be falling fastest are those that reached out to a new middle class -- only to discover it isn't quite there.
In the past few months, China's sedan sales have stalled, auto production has shrunk and fat profit margins have evaporated. While many analysts didn't expect China's auto market to grow so fast the past two years, few thought it would slow so abruptly, either. Some of China's best-known car companies have been caught off guard amid major expansions to reach buyers who are more price-sensitive.
The sudden cooling of a hot industry has exposed some age-old business risks in China. A period of explosive growth may prove alluring, but may not necessarily serve as an accurate gauge of the market's true size, analysts say. Now as growth tapers off in a range of industries, evidence of miscalculations is surfacing, such as empty apartment blocks and rising stocks of unsold cars.
The "usual mistake is to extrapolate the initial trend of high prices and growth into 1.3 billion people," says Andy Xie , Morgan Stanley's Hong Kong-based chief economist for Asia.
Last year's surprisingly strong sales for luxury cars prompted many companies to bet China's middle class would be the next market to tap. But only scattered pockets of middle-class car buyers have emerged, largely in a few big cities.
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Industry analysts say even middle-class Chinese -- estimated to total about 60 million people -- have been put off by banks' recent, tougher qualifications for giving car loans and by rising gas prices. Making matters worse, price wars among auto companies have resulted in de facto decreases in the value of newly purchased vehicles. Many middle-class families are shouldering other expenses, including rising costs for health care, school tuition and monthly mortgage payments.
"There was great excitement for the middle class," says Michael Dunne, president of Automotive Resources Asia, a consulting group that focuses on Chinese auto trends. "But these people aren't buying the $30,000 cars."
The upshot: Many companies that bet on the emergence of a big middle class now are taking a hit. Market leader Volkswagen AG has said it will sell fewer cars in China this year than it did in 2003. Chinese car makers Chongqing Changan Automobile Co. and Geely Automobile Holdings, both of which staked growth on winning customers outside wealthy coastal cities, now are blaming disappointing sales for their lackluster earnings.
Brilliance China Automotive Holdings Ltd., which is assembling the BMW 325i and 530i, has flopped so far in its efforts to promote its own sleek, affordable sedan called the Zhonghua. In the first 10 months of 2004, Zhonghua's sales were 51% lower than the year-earlier period.
China still remains the fastest-growing major auto market in the world. Passenger-car sales increased 18% in the first 10 months. But sales fell 3.6% in September and 1.3% in October from the year-earlier months, and many Chinese car salesmen say they have noticed a sharp downshift in buyer interest.
中国汽车市场风光不再
中国展翅高飞的汽车制造业现在又跌回到地上，那些将销售对象延伸到新兴中产阶级的汽车制造商跌落的速度最快，因为中国中产阶级的实际状况与他们想像的有所出入。
过去几个月中，中国的汽车销售量一直停滞不前，汽车产量已经下降，而汽车行业一度丰厚的利润率也大幅缩水。虽然许多分析师并未预计到过去两年中国的汽车市场会如此高速增长，却也很少有人想到这一市场的降温速度会如此迅疾。中国一些知名度最高的汽车生产商被打了个措手不及，因为他们在中国市场的大举拓展已使自己的销售对象延伸到了那些对价格更敏感的人群。许多汽车装配厂现在都公布了疲弱的利润数据，它们的股价也直线下挫。
追踪沪、深两市上市汽车公司股价表现的中信汽车产业指数(CITIC Auto Industry Index)自今年年初以来已下跌了44.35%，而上证综合指数同期的跌幅为7.8%。
海通证券(Haitong Securities)的汽车行业分析师胡松说，人们对是否购买汽车犹豫不决，投资者对购买汽车类股也心存疑惧。他将汽车制造商利润率的下降归咎于行业竞争加剧以及原材料成本的不断上升。
一度发展火爆的汽车行业突然降温揭示出了中国久已存在的一些商业风险。分析师们说，一段时间的爆炸性增长固然令人欣喜，但以此为标准来衡量市场的实际规模则未必靠得住。现在，随著中国一系列产业的发展速度开始放慢下来，显示人们错估市场形势的证据也日益浮出水面：空置的住房、建筑用钢的过剩以及汽车库存的不断增加。
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)驻香港的亚洲首席经济学家谢国忠(Andy Xie)说，人们常犯的一个错误是，往往把最初看到的价格高企和增长加速等迹象想当然地推而广之，认为这是中国这一13亿人口大国的普遍现象。
由于豪华轿车去年的销售行情出人意料的火爆，许多汽车生产商因而将中国的中产阶级当作了它们下一步开发的市场。但真正掏钱购买豪华轿车的中产阶级却并不多，而且主要分布在为数不多的几个大城市。
汽车行业分析师们说，由于银行最近提高了发放汽车贷款的标准，再加上汽油价格不断上涨，甚至中国中产阶级（总数约为6,000万人）的购车意愿也受到了打击。更糟糕的是，汽车生产商之间的价格战导致新购置的汽车不断贬值。许多中产阶级家庭还需负担其他支出，如不断增加的医疗保健费用、孩子的学费以及按揭贷款的月还款等。
亚汽资源公司(Automotive Resources Asia)是一家关注中国汽车行业发展趋势的咨询机构，其总裁迈克尔?邓恩(Michael Dunne)说，中产阶级有极大的购车热情，但他们不会购买售价3万美元的汽车。
其结果是：许多寄希望于中国中产阶级大量涌现的公司现在都遭受了挫折。市场领头羊大众汽车公司(Volkswagen AG)已表示，它今年在中国的汽车销量将低于2003年。中国的汽车生产商重庆长安汽车股份有限公司(Chongqing Changan Automobile Co.)和吉利汽车控股有限公司(Geely Automobile Holdings)都曾将开发富裕沿海城市以外的客户当作实现业务增长的希望，但令人失望的销售业绩却使他们的利润状况难如人意。
华晨中国汽车控股有限公司(Brilliance China Automotive Holdings Ltd.)是宝马325i型和530i型轿车在中国的组装厂，但其自有品牌的经济型轿车中华轿车迄今为止却未能取得令人满意的销售业绩。2004年前10个月，中华轿车的销量较上年同期下降了51%。
上述汽车生产商的股票也因此受到打击。
在深圳上市的长安汽车自1月1日以来股价已下跌了49%，而吉利汽车和华晨中国在香港上市的股票则分别下跌了46%和59%。
中国仍然是增长最快的世界主要汽车市场。今年前10个月轿车销量增长了18%。但9月份和10月份的轿车销量则分别比去年同期下降了3.6%和1.3%，中国许多汽车销售人员都说，他们注意到人们的购车兴趣显著下降。
上海名流汽车销售有限公司(Shanghai Celebrities Automobile Co.)的销售人员吴显佳（音）说，光顾汽车展示厅的人不像以前那样多了，来参观的人购车意向也不那么坚定了。这家公司负责展销美国通用汽车公司(General Motors Corp.)生产的汽车。
本田汽车公司(Honda Motor Co.)以及通用汽车公司等知名大企业在继续出售高档汽车的同时也在争夺日益减少的经济型汽车买家。而在中、低档汽车市场上，韩国的现代汽车公司(Hyundai Motor Co.)则在从许多中国竞争者的口中夺食。现代汽车的索纳塔(Sonata)牌轿车已经成为中国汽车市场上的高档品牌，该公司于去年12月份又推出了一款名为伊兰特(Elantra)的经济型轿车。今年前10个月，现代汽车公司在中国的汽车销量跃升了162%，这很大程度上应归功于伊兰特轿车。
现代汽车的发言人高达滋(Oles Roman Gadacz)说，在该公司正将触角伸向中、低档车市场的同时，中国消费者对汽车质量的要求也在不断提高。
然而，越来越多能够买得起汽车的中国人却不能确定他们是否需要汽车。山西一位43岁的纺织业者说，他今年5月份放弃了购买一辆大众汽车公司捷达(Jetta)轿车的打算，自那以来，这款轿车的价格已经下跌了20%，这位企业主表示，他近期内不会再有购买汽车的念头。从这件事上可以看出，中国汽车市场的前景不容乐观，至少短期内是如此。
这位企业家说，购买的汽车一出商家的门就开始贬值。
