Beijing tells spendthrift US to put its own house in order
China's financial policymakers are likely to resist pressure to revalue the renminbi,
China's growing economic influence is such that its central bank an important buyer of US government debt now feels confident enough to offer blunt advice to Washington and even criticism of American statecraft.
Mr Li said Washington was now blaming others for its ballooning trade deficit and unemployment problem. But American economic habits and not outsiders caused the ailments, he said before last weekend's leadership summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation forum in Chile, “The savings rate in China is more than 40 per cent. In the US it is less than 2 per cent. So the problem is that they spend too much and save too little,” he said.
Mr Li also said US workers enjoyed relatively high wages but remained excessively engaged in low value-added industries such as textiles, shoemaking and agriculture. In addition, US policies that restricted exports of military and high-technology products to China were also partly to blame for Beijing's huge trade surplus with America, he said. China's trade surplus with the US reached $124bn (�95bn, ￡67bn) last year and has grown this year.
Mr Li's remarks appeared designed to defuse mounting US and European pressure on Beijing to allow an appreciation of its currency, the renminbi, which has remained virtually pegged at Rmb8.27 to the US dollar since the Asian financial crisis of 1997/98.
However, commentators said, the desire to defuseforeign pressure should not be taken as a sign that China wished to do nothing to reform its fixed currency regime. Beijing's financial policymakers considered such reform to be crucial.
Mr Li acknowledged that recent speculative and external pressure on China to allow the renminbi, its currency, to appreciate had been heavy. He mentioned the activity in offshore markets for non-deliverable renminbi futures and investment banks that “forged” reports on PBoC decisions.
Within five to six years, China hopes to have liberalised about 70 per centof the 43 items in itscapital account and made the renminbi a virtuallyconvertible currency, Guo Shuqing, another PBoC deputy governor, said earlier this year. Such reform would aim to shake up China's sluggish socialist-era banks and financial institutions by subjecting them to the rigours of international competition and capital flows. A more open capital account could also promote the reform of China's capital markets.
“Two years later we are going to liberalise [the banking] sector to foreign competition,” Mr Li said. “In order to compete with foreign counterparts, you are going to have to reform yourself if you cannot make money, you are going to loseand you are going to go bankrupt.”
The PBoC has moved this year to allow more capital outflows. Tourists and students travelling overseas have been permitted to take more money with them than before, Chinese emigrants have been allowed to withdraw assets from themainland and some companies have won permission for overseas portfolioinvestments.
The liberalisations were introduced to reduce the inflationary pressures from capital inflows that Jonathan Anderson, economist at UBS in Hong Kong, estimates are still running at about $15bn a month. Although the PBoC has the means to “sterilise” these inflows, such operations are costly.
When speculation over renminbi liberalisation grows, the inflow of capital also swells intensifying pressure on the PBoC. But, Mr Li said, mounting speculation reduced the likelihood of any imminent change to promote flexibility in the renminbi's exchange rate system.
Economists said such an analysis was not mere rhetoric. Officials know that if they widen the band within which the renminbi is allowed to fluctuate at a time when speculative inflows of capital greatly outpace outflows, the Chinese currency will appreciate.
Such appreciation could lead to expectations of further strengthening, locking the PBoC into another round of its battle with speculators, economists said. “The PBoC wants to wait until capital inflows and outflows are roughly in equilibrium before acting on renminbi flexibility,” said one Chinese financial expert.
Until then, China's rising foreign exchange reserves, which now stand at $515bn, will continue to lend the PBoC considerable weight in discussions with Washington. After all, as a significant buyer of US treasuries, it is helping to subsidise the huge US budget deficit and finance the “war on terror” as well as other foreign and domestic policies dear to the administration of President George W. Bush.
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中国要美国管好自家经济
中国经济影响力日益增强，使中国央行感到有足够信心向华盛顿提出直言不讳的建议，甚至对美国的治国能力提出批评。中国央行是美国国债的重要买家。
中国人民银行副行长李若谷在接受《金融时报》采访时表示，华盛顿目前在责备其它国家，认为它们要为其日益膨胀的贸易赤字和失业问题负责。但他在上周末亚太经合组织论坛智利峰会召开前表示，美国经济的症结在于其经济习惯，而不是外部因素。他说：“中国的储蓄率超过40%，而美国则低于2%。因此问题是美国人支出太多，储蓄太少。”
李先生还表示，美国工人享受的工资相对较高，但仍然过多从事低附加值产业，如纺织、制鞋和农业。他表示，此外，美国的政策限制军事和高科技产品出口中国，这也部分导致了中国对美贸易的巨大顺差。中国对美国贸易顺差去年达到1240亿美元，而今年又进一步上升。
美国和欧洲要求北京允许人民币升值的压力日益上升，李先生的话似乎是有意化解这种压力。自1997至1998年亚洲金融危机以来，人民币基本上是按8.27比1的汇率钉住美元的。
但评论人士表示，这一意向并不意味着中国无意采取行动改革固定汇率制度。中国政府的金融政策制定者认为，这种改革十分关键。
李先生承认，最近中国面临的要求人民币升值的投机和外部压力很大。他提到了无本金交割人民币期货离岸市场的活动，以及一些投资银行，它们对中国人民银行的决策“捏造了”研究报告。
中国人民银行的另一位副行长郭树清今年早些时候表示，中国希望在5至6年内，开放43个资本账户项目中的约70%，并使人民币成为基本可兑换货币。此类改革的目的是，通过使各银行和金融机构适应严酷的国际竞争和资本流，彻底整顿中国疲软的社会主义时代银行和金融机构。更加开放的资本账户也能够促进中国资本市场的改革。
“两年后，我们将向外国竞争者开放（银行业），”李先生表示，“为了与外国同行竞争，你必须对自己进行改革，如果你赚不到钱，你就会失败，就会破产。”
