How the lessons of history fall victim to hype
It was in August 2000 that the German auction for mobile phone licences closed. Overall, telecommunications operators paid almost �100bn for licences to offer third-generation services in Europe that are probably worth nothing at all. The corporate value destruction was on a scale rare in business history.
But investors have short memories. It was in 2007, I think, that the rumour that the moon was made of blue cheese began to circulate. Most people were initially sceptical. It was not, however, the sceptics who started buying the cheese distribution sector, which strongly outperformed the market. When the chief executive of a cheese business said he would wait before investing in rocket technology, his company's market capitalisation fell 10 per cent in a week. The call to spend more time with his family came soon afterwards, fortunately cushioned by a generous golden parachute.
The lesson was not lost on other executives. Only the crotchety boss and dominant shareholder of Bouygues Cheese continued to say it was all nonsense. Big consulting firms established practices to advise food companies on the challenges of change. There were few fees to be earned from telling clients not to be stupid, and growing volumes of business at stake. Conferences entitled “Space the New Frontier for Food” were held weekly. They were addressed by consultants and ambitious company men and women; early believers who had earned promotion through their prescience. Investment banks urged the inevitable logic of restructuring. If the merger of New Zealand Dairies with Glasgow Buses looked far-fetched to some, the architects of the deal pointed out there were few big transport companies left to buy. Journalists applauded these visionaries. They understood “Moon made of cheese” was a front-page story: “Moon not made of cheese” was spiked. Grocer's Weekly even adopted the subtitle “The Magazine of the Space Age”. Only the crustiest columnists dared demur. Investment managers were reluctant supporters. They had seen bubbles before. But they were obliged to report to clients that underweight positions in cheese had led to underperformance. Views shifted. Perhaps funds should be entrusted to younger managers, with minds unclouded by experience. As fund managers scrambled to increase their market exposure, shares in cheese rose sky high. Excitement mounted as the day for the launch of the first exploratory rocket approached. The space agency was auctioning the five seats on board and competition was intense. None of the four established cheese companies could be left out and many other businesses were clamouring for a seat. The auction raised far more than anyone had imagined. Its sophisticated designers made only one mistake. They assumed participants had some faint understanding of what they were doing. Manchego, the Spanish cheese maker, was a particularly aggressive bidder. As one of its executives explained, it was essential to be a lunar player. If you were not aboard, your stock would fall by more than the cost of the seat. Even if you were yourself thinking rationally and mostly you were not you were in the hands of people who were not doing so or could not act on rational beliefs. “What else could we do?” said the chief executive of Lodacheese, whose career was based on the insight that you won auctions by paying more than anyone else.
A multinational crew climbed aboard the rocket to general applause. What happened next is shrouded in mystery. Perhaps it blew up before it reached its destination, perhaps it missed the moon and is on its way to distant space. At any rate, the astronauts were never heard of again. Nor was the myth that the moon is made of blue cheese.
Half way through this fairy tale I realised it had already been written. By Hans Christian Andersen; whose Emperor's New Clothes explained how vanity and greed can promote large-scale self-delusion. Andersen's only error was to exaggerate the effect of one small boy's voice among the brayings of the self-opinionated and self-interested. His emperor continued to wave to the crowds even after he realised they knew he was naked. Great men surrounded by adulation rarely perceive themselves to be wrong, do not often learn from experience other than their own and never listen to small boys. That is why history so often repeats itself.
www.johnkay.com 历史教训: 炒作的牺牲品
德国的移动电话许可证拍卖活动于2000年8月结束。欧洲各家电信运营商总共付出约1000亿欧元，才获得这些许可证，提供很可能一文不值的第三代移动通信服务。此等摧毁企业价值的规模，是商业史上罕见的。
不过投资者们都很健忘。到了2007年，有关月亮由蓝乳酪做成的流言，就开始散播。大多数人起初都持怀疑态度。然而，争相买入乳酪分销企业股票的可不是怀疑人士，该板块的表现远远胜过市场整体。当一家乳酪企业的首席执行官表示，他在投资火箭技术之前会审慎考虑时，其公司市值在一周内下跌10%。这位首席执行官不久就觉得，自己需要多与家人在一起，幸运的是，他得到了“金降落伞”式的巨额补偿。
其他高层主管牢记这一教训。只有布伊格乳酪公司(Bouygues Cheese)的坏脾气老板兼主要股东坚持认为，这一切都是无稽之谈。大咨询公司组织了一批业务力量，就变化所带来的挑战向食品企业提供建议。对于咨询公司来说，忠告客户别干蠢事是赚不到钱的，而且这里涉及的业务量越来越大。以“太空：食品新前沿”为标题的会议，每周都在举行，在会上发言的人士包括：咨询顾问、雄心勃勃的公司员工、因先知先觉而获提升的早期信徒。投资银行督促企业进行不可避免的重组。对一些人而言，新西兰乳业公司(New Zealand Dairies)和格拉斯哥公交公司(Glasgow Buses)的合并看似牵强附会，对此，交易的缔造者指出，剩下可购买的大运输公司已为数不多。记者们为这些有远见卓识的人喝彩。他们明白“月亮由乳酪做成”是头版头条新闻，弃置不用的稿件是“月亮并非由乳酪做成”。《食品杂货商周报》(Grocer’s Weekly)甚至用“航天时代杂志”作为副标题。唯有最粗率无礼的专栏作家才胆敢表示异议。投资经理人不情愿地表示支持。他们以前经历过泡影。但他们不得不向客户汇报：业绩欠佳是因为乳酪板块头寸不足。观点有所转变。也许人们应将基金委托给更年轻的经理人，因为他们的大脑尚未因经验而变得混沌。基金经理人竞相提高自己的市场认知度，与此同时，乳酪板块股价飞涨。随着发射首台探索火箭的日期临近，人们的情绪高涨。航天局为火箭机舱内的5个席位举行拍卖活动，竞争颇为激烈。4家老牌乳酪公司不能不理，许多其它公司也叫嚷着要一个席位。拍卖筹得款项超出任何人的想象。精明的筹划者只犯下一个错误。他们想当然地认为参与者对正在发生的一切略微有所了解。西班牙乳酪制造商曼查公司(Manchego)在竞标时特别活跃。该公司某高层主管解释说，成为月球玩家很关键。如果无法登上火箭，股票的跌幅可能会超过席位花费。大多数时候，你可能都无法理智地思考问题，即便你可以理智思考，掌控你的也是那些不理智或不按合理信念行事的人。洛达乳酪公司(Lodacheese)的首席执行官说：“我们还能做些什么呢？”这名执行官的职业基于如下见解：只有付出比别人更多的钱，才能在拍卖会上胜出。
一个由多国人士组成的机务组登上了火箭，世人为之喝彩。接下来所发生的一切却被神秘气氛笼罩着。也许火箭在到达目的地之前就爆炸了，也许火箭错过了月球而正飞往遥远的外太空。无论如何，人们再也没有听到宇航员的音讯。月亮由蓝乳酪做成的这一神话，也随之淡去。
这篇童话故事写到一半，我才意识到已经有人写过这个故事。安徒生在他的《皇帝的新衣》中，对虚荣和贪婪助长的集体性自欺欺人进行了诠释。安徒生的唯一错误在于，在武断自私者的一片刺耳声中，他夸大了一个小男孩的声音。他笔下的皇帝意识到人们已知道他是赤身裸体，但他还继续向人群挥手。被谄媚包围的伟人，很少会认为自己有错，不会从他人经验中吸取教训，也从来不会听取纯真小童的意见。这就是为什么历史总在重演。
